Zebedee1 Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 I've not posted up a system for quite a while, lets see if this does any better than my previous attempts :hope I'm just going to look for what I see as value bets in England & Scotland. Starting bank of 100 pts Staking 2pts per selection, to start off with. I expect to use betfair for most of my bets, this could include some lay bets if I think a price is too short. A couple for tonight.. 2pts on each all with betfair Leeds win 5.3 Coventry draw 3.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Posted October 31, 2006 Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Footy value bets hello Z , how do you determine where the value is? good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Hi Stephen That's a good question. I guess it depends on the individual. I think the Leeds price is value at 5.3, but others don't think it is as they are laying that price. One of the things I tend to look at are the head to head figures, Leeds have won 2 of the last 3 at Preston and with a new manager in charge I think they could sneak a win tonight. :hope I've actually got a spreadsheet set up that I enter various bits of data into & then compare my odds with betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Just one more for tonight. 2 pts Leicester draw 3.35 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted October 31, 2006 Author Share Posted October 31, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Not the start I was hoping for :$ 3 losing bets Selections 3 Wins 0SR 0%Av price 4.00Staked 6.00Profit -6.00 Yield -100% Bank now 94.00 Roll on the weekends selections.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Right, here are this weekends selections. All with Betfair, 2pts on each selection. SelectionOddsLeeds2.98Crystal Palace2.98Southampton draw3.95Cheltenham draw3.30Brentford7.60Yeovil draw3.40Walsall draw4.20Grimsby draw3.50Shrewsbury draw3.40Elgin12.50St Johnstone draw4.30Forfar4.90 Total 24 points staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted November 4, 2006 Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Plenty of picks there Zeb! Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Thanks David :ok There were a lot more when I used to do the Premier league & the top euro divisions. I've bet on 481 matches since the end of July and although I was in profit (7% yield), I noticed that the lower leagues were making a good profit & the top leagues were reducing it every week. So it's just Championship, D1, D2 & Scot leagues from now on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 5, 2006 Author Share Posted November 5, 2006 Re: Footy value bets (yield -53%) A loss of 9.84 pts for yesterdays matches :cry Selections 15 Wins 2SR 13%Av price 4.60Staked 30.00Profit -15.84 Yield -53% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 6, 2006 Author Share Posted November 6, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Two selections for tonight. Aberdeen 3.1 Coventry 3.85 2pts staked on both with Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Another two losers last night :sad Selections 17 Wins 2SR 12%Av price 4.47Staked 34.00Profit -19.84 Yield -58% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted November 7, 2006 Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Footy value bets If I'm butting in then I apologize, but over 2.5 goals in the Montpellier v Tours game at 2.3 (betfair) looks like value to me. 7 of the last 8 away games for Tours have been overs, with lots of goals in Montpellier home games as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 7, 2006 Author Share Posted November 7, 2006 Re: Footy value bets If I'm butting in then I apologize' date=' but over 2.5 goals in the Montpellier v Tours game at 2.3 (betfair) looks like value to me. 7 of the last 8 away games for Tours have been overs, with lots of goals in Montpellier home games as well.[/quote'] Yep, that does look like a bit of value :ok For this system I'm trying out, I'm only doing Home wins, Away wins or draws. At the rate I'm going though this thread might not last too long :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 11, 2006 Author Share Posted November 11, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Todays selections. All with betfair. SelectionOddsCovenrty2.40Crystal Palace2.36Wolves2.86Sheff Wed4.40Leicester2.38Southend4.10Inverness4.00Queen of the South9.80Raith3.80Forfar5.70Arbroath draw6.00 2 pts staked on each. Total staked = 22 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Another bad day :( 13.54 pts lost.. Selections 28 Wins 3SR 11%Av price 4.42Staked 56.00Profit -33.38 Yield -60% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Sorry about being so late, but QPR & the draw are too big tonight, so It's a lay of Cardiff at 1.63, to lose £2 (or hopefully win £3.02 after comm.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 17, 2006 Author Share Posted November 17, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Cardiff lose 1-0 :D Selections 29 Wins 4SR 14%Av price 4.36Staked 58.00Profit -30.35 Yield -52% More tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Selections for today :hope SelectionOddsWolves6.00Bournemouth -1/22.40Gillingham5.30Rotherham draw3.60Macclesfield draw3.50Torquay draw3.40Livingston3.95Partick draw3.90Queen of the South draw3.85Lay St Johnstone £2.78 at 1.72 (lose £2 or win £2.64 after com) I've taken Bournemouth - 1/2 on the asian handicap as the price is the same as a Bournemouth win on the match market, but it's only 1% com. on the AH market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 18, 2006 Author Share Posted November 18, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Selections for today :hope SelectionOddsWolves6.00Bournemouth -1/22.40Gillingham5.30Rotherham draw3.60Macclesfield draw3.50Torquay draw3.40Livingston3.95Partick draw3.90Queen of the South draw3.85Lay St Johnstone £2.78 at 1.72 (lose £2 or win £2.64 after com) I've taken Bournemouth - 1/2 on the asian handicap as the price is the same as a Bournemouth win on the match market, but it's only 1% com. on the AH market. Should have said it's 2 pts staked on each = Total of 20 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zebedee1 Posted November 19, 2006 Author Share Posted November 19, 2006 Re: Footy value bets Another bad day and a loss of 8.42 :( Selections 39 Wins 6SR 15%Av price 4.22Staked 78.00Profit -38.77 Yield -50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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