A Historical Approach to A Canadian Of Trebles.

[FleetFanatic]

Not so much bogey sides, as sides that win the home fixture more often than not. I'm curious to see how many teams that are strong statistically can get the result on the same set of fixtures. Using http://www.footymad.net/stats/loadhed.asp which seems to be a very detailed database, we're going to take the teams that have won the fixture they're involved in 60% of the time or more in the past. Example: the link aboves loads on Aston Villa vs Barnsley. If we were looking at this as a fixture,

At Aston Villa (9)				At Barnsley (8)
Results	Total	%		Results	Total	%
Aston Villa	6	66.67		Barnsley	0	0.00
Barnsley	1	11.11		Aston Villa	7	87.50
Draws	2	22.22		Draws	1	12.50

we would see that Aston Villa, when at home, have won 66.67% of the time. That is the figure we are using. So for today this gives 17 qualifiers: Liverpool 60% Man City 60% Wigan 80% Burnley 66% Ipswich 60% Plymouth 62% Millwall 71% Oldham 68% Port Vale 60% Boston 75% Grimsby 66% Mansfield 65% MK Dons 66% Shrewsbury 62% Altrincham 100% Exeter 66% Morecambe 66% I'm removing the shortest 2 prices - MK Dons & Liverpool - and then perming the rest in groups of 3 (teams arranged alphabetically, alternating through each of the 5 groups.) Odds from bet365* GROUP A Altrincham 6/5 Ipswich 6/4 Oldham 6/5 GROUP B Boston 10/11 Man City 11/8 Plymouth 6/4 GROUP C Burnley 6/4 Mansfield 11/10 Port Vale 8/5 GROUP D Exeter 17/20 Millwall 6/5 Shrewsbury 21/20 GROUP E Grimsby 5/6 Morecambe 8/11 Wigan 5/6 Groups A B C D & E permed into: 10 groups of 6 AB AC AD AE BC BD BE CD CE DE 10 groups of 9 ABC ABD ABE ACD ACE ADE BCD BCE BDE CDE 5 groups of 12 ABCD ABCE ABDE ACDE BCDE 1 group of 15 ABCDE 26 x .20 = £5.20 staked. The 15-fold at the above odds is a 249036/1 shot. :loon * A 15-fold CANNOT be placed with bet365 so must be placed elsewhere. (Note to self: email bet365 and demand to be allowed more selections on the betslip.)

[davidmphill]

Re: A Historical Approach to A Canadian Of Trebles. Interesting stuff mate! Good luck. 15fold would be nice!!

[clarky101]

Re: A Historical Approach to A Canadian Of Trebles. Could be good, i'll keep watching. GL :hope

[kevsul]

Re: A Historical Approach to A Canadian Of Trebles. :hope Good Luck Fleet.:ok On Them Both with the other thread..:ok

[davidc]

Re: A Historical Approach to A Canadian Of Trebles. This is an interesting idea and I wish you luck with it. A couple of questions with regard to using historical stats. 1) How far back do you look for these stats. 2) If you look at the total record do you weight the stats to give more recent results higher relevance. Personally, I use around 10 years as my yardstick in my Historical Away Wins thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=31386, but obviously this is just my preference and other people may have different ideas on this.