Ernie_Money Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Houston/St.Louis over 8 -- laying $189 to win $150 Reasoning: The juice on this Over has shot upwards the last 60 minutes by 10 cents. The Astros have been shutout twice in a row, and although they are capable of having 3-or-4 game ruts like this, they are facing Jeff Weaver, with about a 10 mph breeze blowing straight out (only a slight breeze, but heck, it's still blowing out to dead center), and this may be a perfect recipe for Houston to break out of their 2-game offensive slump. Weaver has put forth 2 solid outings in a row, so he is also about due for a mediocre or bad outing. The Cards' bullpen has been brutal and Weaver rarely goes deep into games, so as long as the Cards can get a few runs here, this should be an Over, although the Stroh's should be capable of putting up 8 themselves tonight. Week 3: 1-0, +$150 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I hate taking Unders, so I will drop my bet from the last 2 days down a tad as I take: Washington/Arizona under 10, laying $105 to win $100 Reasoning: Not sure if the Dome will be open at Phoenix, but Tony Armas has a 2.98 ERA in Day games this season (compared to 6.15 at night). Armas is showing signs of pitching better the last 2 times out and Livan Hernandez allowed just 2 hits in 7 innings in his last appearance at Home. The Nationals just had 6 straight Overs before going Under last night, and often times these streaks will reverse themselves once they have gone the other way the first time. Another factor is the Home Plate umpire angle. Angel Hernandez has had 8 Unders in his last 10 games, had an Under the only time he had Armas behind the dish in his career and has had 3 Unders in 4 games (the Over was a 9, just 1/2 a run over the total) in his career with Livan Hernandez starting. A lot of things point to the Under, so I will go with the flow here. Week 3: 2-0, +$300 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 14, 2006 Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I realize that Aaron Harang is hit or miss and I realize that when the Padres bats heat up, they can stay hot for several games. This is why I will make this a minimum bet. Cincinnati Reds, laying $111 to win $100 Reasoning: The Reds have been shutout 11 times this season and after the previous 10 shutouts, they have produced a 7-3 record and Harang is 3-1 in this spot. I simply am not impressed with Clay Hensley. He has an ERA that is about a point and a half higher outside of Petco and he just faced the Reds there 2 starts ago on Sept. 1st and gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Now he has to make his first start at The Great American Ballpark. Outside of that bad start vs. the Reds 13 days ago (a loss), he has put together 8 fairly solid outings in his last 9, but most of them were at Petco or at Colorado or San Fran, teams he has done well against all year. The Padres haven't seen Harang this season and SD scored just 2 runs off him last year in 16 innings. I like the Reds to bounce back here today. Week 3: 3-0, +$400 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 15, 2006 Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Clay Hensley burned me yesterday with an outstanding outing and Harang had one bad inning to garner the loss. Hopefully I can bounce back today. Problem is I like 10 games and want to bet them all, but I am either chicken or showing discipline, I am not sure which. My worst nightmare would be to go 8-2 and lose this game, but a lot of times, when I do go ahead and bet the 10 games, I go 2-8. So I will try 1 game today and see what happens: ChiSox/Oakland over 9, laying $174 to win $150 Reasoning: Normally, I would never bet this game Over as there are several factors that point to an Under, but I simply cannot ignore the wind and humidity factor tonight. The wind is blowing almost straight out to CF at 21 mph at game time and won't drop to about 16 mph until the game is about 2 hours old, but as the wind speed drops a little, the humidity is rising, and playing baseball for over 30 years myself, I have seen that the ball carries just as much in high humidity conditions than it does with a stiff breeze blowing out. The humidity will be at 69% at game time and will climb close to 80% by the end of the game. Esteban Loazia threw 5 straight gems before getting pummeled last time out at Tampa Bay, so he may be in bounce-back mode, but he also may be in for just a mediocre outing, as perhaps his absolute stellar stretch may be done and he will regress to his normal mean the rest of the month. Jon Garland has been awesome in 5 of his last 6 starts, not allowing more than 1 run in those 5 starts, and the other start, he allowed 4 runs in 8 innings. But these are hitters' conditions tonight, and the ChiSox bullpen has been shaky at best, and hopefully, Garland will regress to his mean a bit tonight. I also realize that the A's went Under their last time out after 6 straight Overs and normally I'd never take this game Over, but the weather conditions are just too strong to ignore. Week 3: 3-1, +$289 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... 4-teamer, laying $700 to win $500: Indianapolis Pick Tampa Bay +18.5 NY Giants +16 Detroit +22 Wanted to bet this at 5dimes, where the juice is -120, but ties lose there and the Detroit Lions was +21, so if they lose by 21, I would lose, so I need Detroit to lose by 20 or less. But at Pinnacle, Detroit is +22 and ties are not an automatic loss, so I basically get 2 extra points for paying the additional $100 in juice, which stinks, but hopefully it won't matter. Reasoning for picks: Colts have yet to lose to the Texans (8-0 in their history) and Indy has been an awesome teaser team the past several years. Buccaneers have played very well against Atlanta the past few years and should bounce back strong after an embarrassign home shutout last week, while Atlanta is in let-down mode after a big road win. Bucs should cover the 5.5 and maybe win this game. Giants have labeled this a "must-win" game as they do not want to star 0-2 and are probably the better team here anyway. Hard to gauge that Eagles win vs. the lowly Texans. maybe the Eagles win, but by 17 or more? I hope not. The Lions' defense was impressive last week vs. Seattle, keeping them out of the endzone, and they will need to be just as impressive this week because I don't see the Lions scoring many points. But as loong as detroit doesn't allow the Bears defense to score points, I don't see Chicago scoring more than 24, which means the Lions only need a FG for me to cover this teaser spread. Week 3: 3-2, +$115 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Took it on the chin yesterday with my NFL teaser, so I will look to hopefully bounce back this week and look to avoid the landmine next Sunday for my next teaser. However, this will at least give me the opportunity to explain what happens after a losing week. I consider $1000 a week an "Ultimate Goal" to reach every week. I don't get fixated on it, I do NOT win that much every week (not even close) but it is an "ultimate" goal that I use as a "guide". So I will round up to the nearest $100 for the first 3 weeks and say that in Week 1, I fell $100 short of my "goal", Week 2, I fell $200 short, and Week 3, I fell $1600 short. So now I will spread those "losses" over the next 19 weeks, and now my goal for the next 19 weeks is to win $1100. If I do reach that number before any of the upcoming weeks are over (i.e., if I am up $1100 on Thursday), I will say that Week 4 is "officially over, having met my goal", but I may opt to keep betting, establishing a "side pot" or starting Week 5 early, looking to chip away at that $1900 number by a few hundred bucks. The key is NOT to get obsessed with being "down $1900", because all that will do is make me "chase after that $1900" and that's where the trouble begins. Because hey, I really am not down $1900, I am up about $1300 for 3 weeks. So again, this is a "built-in" money management technique with this "betting system" that hopefully keeps me from chasing too much. Just a side note: I cannot wait for the NHL and NBA to get here because this is a tough time of year to make money with baseball with managers resting players and starting rookies, etc. I will need to pick my spots and just try and keep my head above water until the NHL and NBA seasons provide me with more daily opportunities to make some dough. Today I like 2 plays: Florida/NY Mets over 9.5, laying $180 to win $150 --- Brian Moehler and Steve Trachsel have been struggling, but so has the Mets offense. With a 15 mph breeze blowing out to LF at game time, I like the Mets offense to wake up tonight and get the win to clinch the division (finally) and I think they can score 7 or 8 tonight, so I just need the Marlins to put up 2 or 3 and this should cash. Also will go to the NFL to pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3, laying $186 to win $150 --- I am buying the half-point just to be on the safe side so I at least get the push if the Steelers win by 3. People are under-estimating how good Jacksonville is. I rarely use this logic when handicapping games, but cannot help it tonight, and that is this: After seeing how bad Miami was yesterday, how impressive was the Steelers' opening night win in hindsight? And after seeing Dallas destroy Washington last night, this makes the Jaguars' opening-day win more impressive, especially considering they were down 10-0 early in that game. Also throw in the fact that the Jaguars have played the Steelers tough the last 3 head-to-head meetings and I'll take a shot with the home dog. Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 19, 2006 Share Posted September 19, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I have lost 4 straight bets with 1 pending. Make it 2 pending. I will chase the Marlins/Mets loss with the Padres tonight: San Diego Padres, laying $104 to win $100 Reasoning: The Padres have owned LA this season, especially at LA, winning 7 of 8 and Peavy has been dominant against LA his last 7 starts against them. The Padres won both close games in this series, but got blown out in the other one, and Brad Penny has got knocked around by SD this year. This game will be close again, I suspect, but I'll take San Diego. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Magyar Posted September 19, 2006 Share Posted September 19, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Hi ive been following your posts. Very much like your thinking re money management. Dont know much about American Sports so some terminology is lost on me at the moment. But im sure ill pick it up following this thread. Good luck with what you are doing. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 19, 2006 Share Posted September 19, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Hi ive been following your posts. Very much like your thinking re money management. Dont know much about American Sports so some terminology is lost on me at the moment. But im sure ill pick it up following this thread. Good luck with what you are doing. :ok Guide to baseball http://new.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13985:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 19, 2006 Share Posted September 19, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... After that San Diego loss last night, I wonder if that is a sign from the stars to quit baseball for the season, as I could be in the midst of a cold, cold streak when crap like that happens. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back HRs in the 9th for LA and then a 2-run walk-off HR in the 10th to lose that pick last night. SD never trailed until the game was over. But, I am gambler, so I will go forward, although if I have a disastrous night tonight, I will have to re-evaluate what I will do with MLB these final 2 weeks carefully. Tonight, laying a lot of small chalk: Florida Marlins, laying $128 to win $100 Milwaukee Brewers, laying $130 to win $100 Los Angeles Angels, laying $132 to win $100 San Francisco Giants, laying $348 to win $300 Reasoning: 1) Mets clinched last night, should be resting plenty of starters, while Florida is still in the wild-card race (barely) and won't be resting anybody and I like them coming off a shutout. 2) Simple: Sheets vs. Jeff Weaver, I have to go with the better pitcher. 3) KC has been playing better baseball than LAA recently (believe it or not), but Saunders got rocked last time out and the last 2 times he got rocked, he bounced back strong in his next outing. KC bats are certainly overdue to regress to their mean, too. 4) Matt Cain has had 6 awesome starts in a row. Zero earned runs in his last 4 starts (spanning 29 2/3 innings) and 1 earned run in his last 6 starts (spanning 42 innings). Normally, I would say he is "due" for a bad outing, but after Colorado scored 20 last night, I see their bats struggling a bit in this spot and San Fran should be able to end a 3-game losing streak. Week 4: 1-2, -$134 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backshot Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... lol ernie money, take it as an omen and wait for the nba and nhl to start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Magyar Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Quote: Originally Posted by Mighty Magyar Hi ive been following your posts. Very much like your thinking re money management. Dont know much about American Sports so some terminology is lost on me at the moment. But im sure ill pick it up following this thread. Good luck with what you are doing. :ok Guide to baseball http://new.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=13985:ok Cheers:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I have gotten smoked the last week and have not had a winning day since last Wednesday. I kind of consider last night to almost be a "winning day" because I took the night off and all 3 games I liked (but did not bet) all lost, so I am in the midst of a horrific losing slide, which happens a few times a year, and this is one time of the year when it can happen, the final 2 or 3 weeks of baseball, which gets unpredictable. I had my 3 1/2 hot run in MLB, and it appears to be over, but I will still look to pick my spots until the NHL and NBA seasons arrive. I may have to load up on an NFL teaser on Sunday to salvage the week. It is a marathon, not a sprint, and riding out the 4 or 5 ice cold stretches that pop up during the year are the key to betting success. Let's try: Florida/NY Mets over 7.5, laying $250 to win 282 Reasoning: Slight breeze blowing out, but way more importantly, Pedro Martinez just isn't the same pitcher any more. He was savvy enough to get by in April and May to win games with average stuff, but now, due to injuries, he has very below-average stuff, and no amount of savvy in the world is going to be enough to fool major league hitters, unless you are left-handed (i.e. Jamie Moyer). It is just a matter of whether or not this young Marlins team goes up to the plate intimidated by who Pedro was, rather than who he is now. The marlins need to recognize the fact that Pedro has nothing and they should just be up at the plate ripping him. Anibal Sanchez has been amazing, but the Mets only need to get 4 or 5 runs here (shouldn't even need that if the marlins hit tonight) to put this game over the total, and the Marlins bullpen has been atrocious at times, so since I doubt Sanchez goes beyond 7 innings, this game does have a good chance of going over the low total. The Mets did get 3 off Sanchez 2 starts ago in Florida in 7 innings and 5 total for that game. Record: Week 4: 2-5, -$640 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 24, 2006 Share Posted September 24, 2006 4-team teaser to close out Week 4 Took 2 days off after a tough 1/2-run loss on Thursday and a tough week, period, as I decided to just wait till Sunday, play my teaser to hopefully salvage the week and maybe jump-start me into Week 5. Haven't had a winning day in 10 days (haven't bet all of those days) and probably should have played some NCAA yesterday as I had a good day, but placed no bets. 4-team teaser, laying $1200 to win $1000 (5dimes) NY Jets +18.5 Jacksonville +20 NY Giants +16.5 Denver +20 Reasoning: I believe all 4 of these teams have a shot at covering the regular spreads. The Jets should stay within 3 scores of Buffalo as the Bills have yet to score 18 points in a game yet this season, and the Jets should be able to put up at least 2 scores in this one. The Colts are banged up and I know Jacksonville is coming off a big Monday Night win, but this game is JUST as big for them as they have something to prove here to their intra-division rivals. The Giants are just too good to lose by 3 scores here. They played the Colts tough, had a big comeback win vs. the Eagles last week, so although this is a let-down spot, it is also a revenge spot from last year. Seattle has been a bit slow out of the gate offensively, so the Giants should stay close. Denver has played the patriots tough in recent years and Tom Brady is just 1-4 against them in his career. I see the Patriots beating the Broncos and their sputtering offense, but Denver should keep this game within 2 scores. Week 4: 2-6, -$890 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Better lucky than good as I won my NFL teaser on Sunday, took yesterday off (and I am glad I did as I would have lost all 3 bets I thought about placing), so that is practically a winning night for me, making the decision to pass. Now I am back with a bet tonight to hopefully get things back on track: Baseball -- Grand Salami under 138, laying $156 to win $150 Reasoning: The Salami has gone Over 4 straight days, going over by 41 runs on Saturday and 29 runs on Sunday, so with 2 stone Overs in that mix and with the pitchers that are going tonight, I will take a shot at this Under. Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 27, 2006 Share Posted September 27, 2006 Week 5, Day 2 ChiSox/Cleveland over 10, laying $159 to win $150 LA Dodgers, laying $180 to win $150 Reasoning: 1) 23 mph breeze blowing out and I don't have a lot of faith in Carmona or McCarthy, not to mention that the ChiSox bats should wake up here after being outscored 20-1 in this series. 2) Simply taking the better pitcher (Lowe over Cook) at a good price and riding a hot team who should beat iut the Phillies for the wild-card. Week 5: 0-1, -$156 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 Week 5, Day 3 Got lucky with the rain-shortened game last night to give me a no action on my total (which I will call a push for record-keeping purposes). I am stubborn, so I am taking another shot at this Grand Salami under today. Grand Salami under 112, laying $202 to win $200 Reasoning: Looked at all 12 games and feel there are enough conditions here that warrant at least half the games to stay Under, and besides, the Salami has gone Over 6 straight days, and it is rare that there be a streak one way or the other that goes much longer than 6, especially when there have been 3 stone Overs during these 6 days and a lot of runs being scored during this stretch. It cannot alst forever. Week 5: 1-1, -$6 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Need another rainout or rain-shortened game to bail me out because of the LA/Colorado debacle. I will chase a little bit with a play I also liked, but saved in case the Salami looked bad after the early games, and oh boy does it look bad now (and I will chase tomorrow and the next day, taking the Salami Under until it hits). New York Mets, laying $180 to win $150 Reasoning: El Duque has been solid for the Mets and I have to like this Division winner to come out with some pride tonight after being thrashed 25-1 the last 2 nights in Atlanta and take it to a pitcher with an ERA over 8 for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Week 5, Day 4 30 runs in Colorado put the Salami over by 7 runs yesterday which ticks me off, as even a 22-run game would have given me a win, and of course, Penny goes out early with a back injury and the Phillies game being played at 11:30 p.m. EST is a joke and Major League Baseball should be ashamed of itself for making them play such a huge game at that hour. If the Phillies weren't going for the wild-card spot, that game would have been a rainout. My bet Grand Salami Under 142, laying $273 to win $250 Reasoning: 7 straight Overs for the Salami, which is getting near rarified air as I believe the longest streak either way for the Salami all season (I believe, but didn't verify) is 8. Pitching matchups look very favorable so I will play the odds. Week 5: 2-2, -$58 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 30, 2006 Share Posted September 30, 2006 Week 5, Day 5 I liked them all week and shoud have bet them before the line moved to 17. It bothers me that some guy has to tout this as his InterGalactic Game of the Millennium, which almost took me off this game, but the guy is a good capper and I liked this game before he even mentioned it, so I gotta take: Miami Hurricanes -17, laying $101 to win $100 Reasoning: I don't care what Houston's record is. Generally speaking, Miami shuts downs one-dimensional teams and have also been a good bounce-back team after getting embarrassed and they also have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Week 5: 3-2, +$192 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... 2 Miami turnovers turns this game into a loss. I will chase it with: UTEP -17, laying $110 to win $100 Reasoning: UTEP off 2 losses in a row and an Away game and NM St. cannot stop anybody. Potential for a thrashing although the public being all over UTEP worries me and the line and the juice has been skyrocketing at Pinnacle the last 15 minutes or so and I had to go to another shop (a dime line shop) just to get -10 juice on UTEP. But I'll stick with my original instincts here and call for the blowout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 1, 2006 Share Posted October 1, 2006 4-team teaser to close out Week 5 Similar to Week 2, I am paying a lot of extra juice ($140 this time, in fact) just to get an extra 2 1/2 points to get over a "key" number for one of the teams in my 4-team teaser. In this instance, I am getting 2 1/2 points on the Cowboys just by simply betting this teaser at a different book. At 5dimes, I can only get the Cowboys at +2, but ties lose, so in reality, I ACTUALLY have Dallas at +1. At Pinnacle, I got Dallas at +3.5, which puts me over a BIG NFL key number of 3, just in case the Cowboys lose by 3 to Tennessee. So, to me, the extra 2.5 points I get with Dallas, putting me over the "key" number of 3 with Dallas, is worth the extra $140 of juice since Pinny's teaser go at -140 compared to 5dimes at -120. Now after all of this, watch Tennessee win by 4. The bet: $980 to win $700 Indianapolis +5 Dallas +3.5 Baltimore +15 New England +18.5 Reasoning: 1) Colts have been a spectacular teaser play over the last 4 years, and they can even lose by 3 or 4 points here and I still get a "W". 2) All the T.O. distractions are certainly worrisome and even more worrisome is that maybe Dallas is looking ahead of this bad Titans' team to Philadelphia in Week 5. But with a rookie QB making his first start and Dallas off a bye week, I would expect Dallas to win the game, which is all I need here. 3) The Ravens' defense MUST stop L.T., and if they can accomplish this, then the Chargers need QB Philip Rivers (with 2 career starts) to beat this defense. Also consider the fact that The Ravens have only allowed 20 points all season. San Diego may not score more than 14 points in this game unless they get turnovers. I think Baltimore can win outright, so I am happy to get 15 and see if SD can beat this team, AT Baltimore, by more than 2 TDs. 4) I like this situational spot as the Patriots are coming off an embarrassing Home loss on National TV while the Bengals are coming off a HUGE divisional win against their arch-rivals at Pittsburgh. The Patriots have been a great bounce-back team under Bill Belichick, and hopefully this will continue in 2006 because the Patriots simply are not as good as they have been the last 5 years. But I'll take my chances with 18.5. Week 5: 3-4, -$19 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 3, 2006 Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Oakland/Minnesota under 7, laying $100 to win $100 Reasoning: Both Zito and Santana have had success pitching against each other's teams and Santana has been unhittable at times when at the MetroDome and I just see lots of goose-eggs going up today. Both pitchers are backed by solid bulllpens, so it's not like it will be a 1-1 game in the 8th and both pens are going to come in and serve up slop and get knocked around. Sanatan pitched at Oakland on 6/2/06 and gave up 2 hits and 1 run in 8 innings and Zito threw against Minny at Oakland on 6/1/06 and gave up 4 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings pitched. I like the Under. Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted October 3, 2006 Share Posted October 3, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Very interesting thread. Tonights under walked in - nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miguel_hamburglar Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Oakland/Minnesota under 7' date= laying $100 to win $100 Reasoning: Both Zito and Santana have had success pitching against each other's teams and Santana has been unhittable at times when at the MetroDome and I just see lots of goose-eggs going up today. Both pitchers are backed by solid bulllpens, so it's not like it will be a 1-1 game in the 8th and both pens are going to come in and serve up slop and get knocked around. Sanatan pitched at Oakland on 6/2/06 and gave up 2 hits and 1 run in 8 innings and Zito threw against Minny at Oakland on 6/1/06 and gave up 4 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings pitched. I like the Under. Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Hi Ernie Money, great tip this one, seriously one of the best I have been on for a while, this is looking to be another great week for you, great to see! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Week 6, Day 2 Detroit/N.Y. Yankees over 9, laying $124 to win $100 Reasoning: After a brilliant first 4 months, Justin Verlander has been hit or miss since August 1st, having just 4 good outings in his last 10 starts. Yes, he skipped his last start to get extra rest for this playoff start, so maybe this will help. However, on 6/01/06 against the Yankees at Detroit, Verlander was coming off 3 spectacular starts and got ripped by New York, giving up 6 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings. And the Yankees did not have Matsui, Sheffield or Abreu playing in that game. Mussina did shut down Detroit on 5/31/06, giving up zero runs in a complete game effort, but Mussina pitched real well the first 2 months before returning to his mean as the season went on. With a 14 mph breeze blowing out, I see a potential for runs on Wednesday and feel both teams should get at least 4 runs. Week 6: 1-0, +100 Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Very solid pick, home & hosed after 6th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Week 6, Day 3 Last night's game was no action due to the rainout, and since Verlander pitches better during day games, the wind was now blowing across instead of out like on Wednesday night and because of the shadows in the afternoon at Yankees Stadium, I did not re-bet it today. Today it is: Los Angeles/New York under 9, laying $104 to win $100 Reasoning: Hong-Chih Kuo made his major-league debut as a starter against the Mets and shut them out through 6 innings of work on 9/8/06 on 3 hits, striking out 7. The Mets best hitters are obviously lefties and their switch-hitters also generally hit better from the left side. Glavine faced the Dodgers twice and got hit hard in LA, but at Shea on 9/7/06, he shut them out through 6 1/3 innings. Slight breeze of 8 mph blowing in, which is basically insignificant, but I'll take a shot at this game staying under. Week 6: 1-0, +$100 Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LilEagle Posted October 5, 2006 Share Posted October 5, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... keep up the good work man :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted October 6, 2006 Share Posted October 6, 2006 Week 6, Day 3 Minny/Oakland over 8.5, laying $112 to win $100 Reasoning: The ball carries a lot better at Oakland in the afternoon than at night and always has. A 14 mph breeze blowing out today and although I love Brad Radke and am rooting for him, his arm is literally hanging by a thread and has pitched once in the last month and won't go beyond 5 innings and may get hit around here. After 2 straight Unders in this series, I look for some runs here. I know Haren has totally shut down Minny the last times he faced them, but Minny has hit him before. Week 6: 2-0, +$200 Week 5: 4-4, +$681 Week 4: 3-6, +$110 Week 3: 3-3, -$575 Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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