Guest Whopper73 Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Ok, so I'm new to horse racing and I am testing out a system I am filtering from Adrians Masseys tables and I have started to place small bets after convincing myself the system will work :unsure Anyway, I placed a bet that came in today but I didnlt get the expected return due to horses piulling out before the start of the race and I lost 25p in the pound (or at least I think in the pound!) but I cannot work out how the math is done to calculate the adjustment. Can anyone here help? If it any help the stake was for 48p to win (a percentage of a very small bank for proofing purposes - so stop laughing!) with odds of 5.50. The expected return was 2.64, but the actual return was 2.10. Can anyone explain how!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations It looks like the 2nd fav (5/2 to 3/1) was withdrawn, therefore deduction of 25 p in a pound according to Rule 4. The deducton is based on the odds of the withdrawn horse not your sel.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Re: Tattersalls calculations sorry, still don't understand! Can you give some worked examples so I can try and grasp it! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations 25 p in a pound means 25% reduction, keep with me - it's wins that count, not returns - so actually you were hoping to win 2.16 (2.64 - 0.48) MINUS 25% - equals 1.62. Therefore, 1.62 was your net win after applying Rule 4. And 1.62 PLUS 0.48 (stake again) gives you the actual return of 2.10. Hope it's understandable enough now.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations Basically, If a horse is wiithdrawn from the field , the bookmaker may apply a Rule 4. If its on an Early Price race , usually they will apply the rule 4 to just early prices before a set time and then readjust their books. If the horse is withdrawn shortly before the off they don't have time to readjust the odds so apply a rule 4 to all bets. This rule 4 is applied to compensate for the horse not running. For Example : You have a field like this:- Texas Gold 2/1 Easter Ogil 3/1 Forever Dreams 7/1 Helpful Harry 8/1 All the rest 9/1 and bigger Suddenly Easter Ogil gets withdrawn. Now, you can see that Texas Gold and Easter Ogil were the two fancied chances. Now that Easter Ogil is not running Texas Gold is hot fave. If the bookies had known Easter Ogil wouldnt run they wouldnt offer 2/1 on T.Gold. So they use the rule 4 to compensate. The rule 4 is applied to the pound and only to your winnings. ie. £20 @ 5/1 witha 15p rule 4 = £100 winnings - 15p per £(£15) = £85 + your £20 stake = £105. The size of rule 4 depends on the price of the horse withdrawn. 33/1 upwards dont usually activate a rule 4. Anything below varies upto about 80p to the pound for odds on horses. Im sure if you searched on google for rule 4 you could find the chart which gives the precise amounts. Hope this helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Re: Tattersalls calculations Thanks guys, for about it being on the win ruturned not win + stake. all makes sense now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations Aha - if you wanted the Rule 4 list, then go to the Help page of any book running racing books and you will find it under Betting Rules/Horse racing - the section is called Rule 4 and comes in the form of a neat table with all reductions according to odds. B365 have one for example, but they are shown by any on-line book (with horse racing on offer). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations Whopper, it can't be based on stake + win as you would actually be losing any time (at least when backing shorter odds) this rule was applied. Simply, it's based on UK odds (fractions) and not Euro (decimal) odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Whopper73 Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Re: Tattersalls calculations I realise how simple the calculation is now. I understood the table, just couldn't fathom out their calculation. I always seem to start to try and find something that is really complicated and it turns out to be simple :banghead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 31, 2004 Share Posted March 31, 2004 Tattersalls calculations No worries, mate, there is always something you can learn along the way.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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