rippyuk Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 After reading through some of the previous lay system threads, I'm currently following Danny Cash's racing lays - from which so far I'm in profit. What Danny's "Profitable Lay System" thread has done is opened my eyes to the kind of strike rate you need for a successful & profitable system. This is the first system I've ever 'devised', and in tribute to DC I've bootlegged his title for myself. ;) In a nutshell, the system is simplicity itself.. Lay the underdog. Sounds obvious, I guess, but here are the stats. In the 2005/6 English Premier League season, out of 380 matches played: - 226 were won by the favourite - 78 were won by the underdog - 76 ended in a draw Laying the underdog would've resulted in 302 winning lays, and 78 losing lays. This is a strike rate of 79.47%. I ran a trial on the 2005/6 season stats, with odds from BetExplorer (http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/england/english-premier-2005-2006/). I added 10% to the prices to give a rough lay price, and used two different staking plans. The results: FIXED PROFIT STAKING - 2pts profit per lay Starting Bank - 100pts Total Staked - 760pts Final Bank - 250.45pts Profit/Loss - +150.45pts Lowest the bank fell to was around 72pts. FIXED LIABILITY STAKING - 20pts liability per lay Starting Bank - 200pts Final Bank - 246.7pts Profit/Loss - +46.7pts The bank dropped as low as 14pts using this staking plan. On the back of these results I want to give it a proper trial this season, using fixed profit staking of 2pts per lay, and will record it here. As this is my first attempt, I'm only using miniscule stakes myself, if you want to follow along feel free - but please be aware I've only used stats for last season. We could be looking at a much lower strike rate than 79%. This thread could end in swift bankroll burnout! You have been warned. I'll begin blindly laying every underdog, but as the season goes on I might get selective with the matches. The first selections will be posted soon. In the meantime, if anyone has any input, fire away. Please bear in mind I generally only gamble for my enjoyment & am new to taking it seriously, so be gentle.. lately I've been keeping records, as I might as well make my pastime profitable! Hope I've not posted a load of old tripe.. rippyuk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System sounds interesting, good luck with it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saxappeal Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Will be watching it close... Good luck! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Hello Rippy, I started a thread with the same idea, but since the horses are taking away most of my time, I'll follow yours. Some ideas: Don't use the odds to determine the underdog, I mean, if a team has bigger odds don't lay it juts because of that. If you had bet against Chelsea last season when it visited Man Utd, Liverpool, Tottenham, the big teams, you would have lost money. It should be you who determines the underdogs. As far as the top 6 teams go, it is not a good idea to lay the 2nd when he visites the 6th, etc. The bottom teams have the same pattern, the 14th can go and visit the last and win, althought his odds may be bigger. The bottom 6 teams last season would have returned a loss if you had bet merely based on the odds. So when the bottom teams play each other, don't lay a team that is higher in the chart. The rest is up to you and I wish you good luck! Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 8, 2006 Author Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System You make some interesting points, will look at them more closely with the stats I have. Something else I noticed - The average weekly strike rate improves the later in the season you look - this appears to be a result of the newly promoted teams (Wigan, West Ham, etc) being made automatic underdogs against regular low/mid-table finishers by the bookies. Seems as though they wise up as the season progresses, understandable really. This could throw up some good value in backing teams like Watford against certain opposition in the early part of the season, though thats obviously something totally different to this thread - but it could help me exclude a few selections for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System My point was exactly that filtering some games (Liverpool-Chelsea, etc) will improve your strike rate and your profits. If you have the time simulate last years results without those games and I think the overall profit should be better. Good Luck with this, this is my favourite approach to football betting, laying the underdogs. Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Pinho, you mentioned you are forced to take Betfair prices at, somtimes unfavourable times. On the Betfair site it explains the spec of phone required, to download their software, bringing up the interface & bet on any sport anytime anyware.......Sunshine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Thanks Sunshine Avenue, I now have a 3G card and I take my laptop to work, the thing is sometimes I cannot be in front of the computer during the race hours, but it happens only 2/3 days week at the most. But thanks for the input! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted August 8, 2006 Share Posted August 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System I have found that quite often it is more profitable to back the favourite and the draw, rather than lay the underdog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 19, 2006 Author Share Posted August 19, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Ok, here we go. 1st weekend of the season, with a starting bank of 200pts for safety. Going into the 1st week laying blind to see what happens, could possibly be caught out by one of the newly promoted teams. Lays Sheffield United v Liverpool @ 9.2 Arsenal v Aston Villa @ 13.5 Everton v Watford @ 6.6 Newcastle v Wigan @ 5.3 Portsmouth v Blackburn @ 3.2 Reading v Middlesbrough @ 3.3 West Ham v Charlton @ 4.1 Bolton v Tottenham @ 3.1 Man Utd v Fulham @ 16.0 Chelsea v Man City @ 18.0 2pts fixed profit per lay. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 19, 2006 Author Share Posted August 19, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System (all above with Betfair) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damp Squib Posted August 19, 2006 Share Posted August 19, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Rippy, you need to take on board that the prices you have worked on had a normal Bookmakers % where on Betfair they will bet 101% and the underdog will nearly always trade the higher % of that, you also need to factor in the Comm of the Winners. Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 20, 2006 Author Share Posted August 20, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Rippy, you need to take on board that the prices you have worked on had a normal Bookmakers % where on Betfair they will bet 101% and the underdog will nearly always trade the higher % of that, you also need to factor in the Comm of the Winners. Good Luck. Yep, granted - will remember to take commission into consideration. Hear what you're saying about book % too - just to reiterate, I don't recommend following this with your own cash. Will post up results in a while - not a bad 1st weekend though.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 21, 2006 Author Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Sheffield United v Liverpool @ 9.2 :ok +1.9pts Arsenal v Aston Villa @ 13.5 :ok +1.9pts Everton v Watford @ 6.6 :ok +1.9pts Newcastle v Wigan @ 5.3 :ok +1.9pts Portsmouth v Blackburn @ 3.2 :ok +1.9pts Reading v Middlesbrough @ 3.3 :ok +1.9pts West Ham v Charlton @ 4.1 :ok +1.9pts Bolton v Tottenham @ 3.1 :cry -4.2pts Man Utd v Fulham @ 16.0 :ok +1.9pts Chelsea v Man City @ 18.0 :ok +1.9pts Starting bank - 200pts Current bank - 212.9pts Profit/Loss - +12.9pts Total staked - 144.6pts Winning bets/Total Bets - 9/10 Strike rate - 90% Yield - 8.92% Good plan starting with 200pts as we exposed almost 75% of the bank this weekend. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 21, 2006 Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System That's the problem with underdogs, but you're laying at very high odds, so you should be safe. I like this strategy, maybe I'll keep an eye on it. Have you tried other leagues? Could be worth simulating the Spanish, Italian, etc, maybe I'll do it, it doesn't take long. If I do it I'll post results here on your thread, if you don't mind, of course. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 21, 2006 Author Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Some other interesting stats using last seasons results.. Laying the bookies underdog.. Chelsea at home - 100% strike rate Liverpool at home - 100% strike rate Tottenham at home - 100% strike rate Arsenal at home - 94.74& strike rate (1 loss v West Ham) Man U at home - 89.47% strike rate (2 losses v Chelsea & Blackburn) Fulham away - 94.74% strike rate (1 loss v man city) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 21, 2006 Author Share Posted August 21, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Have you tried other leagues? Could be worth simulating the Spanish, Italian, etc Have thought about it, need to take a closer look. With a lot less personal knowledge (i.e. none) about most foreign leagues I'll be looking to pick out stats like the above, and maybe pick one or two teams from each league to follow. If you do any research feel free to throw it in the pot mate, appreciate your input and involvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Missed the midweek games, will post those with results from this weekend. I hope noone will mind the after-eventing, as the selections from this system are obvious. Will make an effort to not let it happen again! Lays For 26th/27th/28th Aug Liverpool v West Ham @ 9.6 Charlton v Bolton @ 2.9 Fulham v Sheffield Utd @ 4.7 Tottenham v Everton @ 6.0 Watford v Man Utd @ 11.0 Wigan v Reading @ 4.2 Man City v Arsenal @ 6.2 Aston Villa v Newcastle @ 3.2 Blackburn v Chelsea @ 8.2 Middlesborough v Portsmouth @ 3.9 All prices with Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTR Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System I checked laying the underdogs against home teams from Europe that were favorites to win at odds under 1.60 for the previous season. I took teams like Anderlecht, PSV, Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Juventus, Chelsea, Manchester United and so on and it would have given profit. Of course this way you would have to lay the underdog at very high odds and there will always be the occasional loser, like last weekend where Panathinaikos was 1.15 to win against Ionikos and they lost 0-2. Anyway, good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PUD Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Ouch - Pompey just scored their third goal. Looks like a bad weekend at the office but thats the nature of laying I suppose. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Retrospective Lays for 22nd/23rd Aug Manchester City v Portsmouth @ 4.0 +1.9pts :ok Fulham v Bolton @ 3.1 +1.9pts :ok Blackburn v Everton @ 3.6 +1.9pts :ok Aston Villa v Reading @ 4.4 +1.9pts :ok Middlesbrough v Chelsea @ 8.8 -15.6pts:cry Charlton v Manchester United @ 8.6 +1.9pts :ok Watford v West Ham @ 3.2 +1.9pts :ok Tottenham v Sheffield United @ 11.6 +1.9pts :ok Lays For 26th/27th/28th Aug Liverpool v West Ham @ 9.6 +1.9pts :ok Charlton v Bolton @ 2.9 +1.9pts :ok Fulham v Sheffield Utd @ 4.7 +1.9pts :ok Tottenham v Everton @ 6.0 -10pts :cry Watford v Man Utd @ 11.0 +1.9pts :ok Wigan v Reading @ 4.2 +1.9pts :ok Man City v Arsenal @ 6.2 -10.4pts:cry Aston Villa v Newcastle @ 3.2 +1.9pts :ok Blackburn v Chelsea @ 8.2 +1.9pts :ok Middlesborough v Portsmouth @ 3.9 -5.8pts:cry Starting bank - 200pts Current bank - 197.7pts Profit/Loss - -2.3pts Winning bets/Total Bets - 23/28 Strike rate - 82.14% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted September 8, 2006 Author Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Not a brilliant start to the season, lets see how we go this weekend. :hope Lays for 9th/10th/11th September Everton v Liverpool @ 4.2 Portsmouth v Wigan @ 5.0 Arsenal v Middlesbrough @ 14.5 Sheffield United v Blackburn @ 2.74 Bolton v Watford @ 6.4 Newcastle v Fulham @ 5.6 Chelsea v Charlton @ 24.0 Manchester United v Tottenham @ 8.6 West Ham v Aston Villa @ 3.9 Reading v Manchester City @ 3.2 All prices with Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Not a brilliant start to the season' date=' lets see how we go this weekend. :hope[u'] Lays for 9th/10th/11th September Everton v Liverpool @ 4.2 :cry-6.4pts Portsmouth v Wigan @ 5.0 :ok +1.9pts Arsenal v Middlesbrough @ 14.5 :ok +1.9pts Sheffield United v Blackburn @ 2.74 :ok +1.9pts Bolton v Watford @ 6.4 :ok +1.9pts Newcastle v Fulham @ 5.6 :cry-9.2pts Chelsea v Charlton @ 24.0 :ok +1.9pts Manchester United v Tottenham @ 8.6 :ok +1.9pts West Ham v Aston Villa @ 3.9 :ok +1.9pts Reading v Manchester City @ 3.2 :ok +1.9pts All prices with Betfair. Starting bank - 200pts Current bank - 197.3pts Profit/Loss - -2.7pts Winning bets/Total Bets - 31/38 Strike rate - 81.58% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rippyuk Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Lays for 16th/17th Sept Charlton v Portsmouth @ 2.98 Bolton v Middlesbrough @ 4.4 Everton v Wigan @ 5.9 Sheff Utd v Reading @ 3.0 Watford v Aston Villa @ 3.25 Chelsea v Liverpool @ 5.9 Blackburn v Man City @ 4.0 Tottenham v Fulham @ 6.8 West Ham v Newcastle @ 3.85 Man Utd v Arsenal @ 4.5 Prices as usual with Betfair.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fetteredchinos Posted September 18, 2006 Share Posted September 18, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System nice idea in theory here, but i will be surprised if you get anywhere with this one. the prematch prices on football on betfair are pretty close to true odds, and especially so in the big european leagues. laying the outsider doesnt have any perceived edge as far as i can see. You are blanket laying all games. You really have to be selective, otherwise all you will be doing is burning up comission. fc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfp Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: (Potentially) Profitable (Premiership) Lay System Hi rippyuk ;) i don't think you will achieve anything with this strategy. You are simply laying underdogs and you are not even using prediction to do it. Given that you are laying at higher than fair prices then you will end a long term looser. :cry However, this is your idea so it is up to you what you will do with it. My suggestion is to at least start putting prediction into it, maybe you are good at it and this works for you. Also, do not concentrate only on the premier league or on 1x2 bets. Good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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