merlin Posted January 6, 2009 Author Share Posted January 6, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... Hi there Progamble and welcome both to the site, and the thread in particular.Good to see that you have adapted to Michael's sheets, and doing OK with them also.We have tried different systems now for some time and this is the fourth season for the 3-0 highlight system, which has shown a profit for the whole three seasons and also showing well in this campaign.We have learned by experience that it is unwise to use these sheets purely as correct score sheets,they don't actually work well in that respect, so you have told us nothing that we already do not know.We would be more than interested if you choose to join our band here on this thread, and to be able to contribute some ideas for the mutual benefit of those punters using this thread and indeed those popping in from an interest perspective.All new ideas and constructive comments are most welcome. Cheers. Merlin.:ok ps Copy and paste works Ok for the data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Progamble :welcome to PL My interest picked up immediately you mentioned laying and quoted your stats, as these numbers seem very good. Can you just clarify things for me ... as i understand it you have used your excel an vba skills to be able to extract the basic MW formula and improve on it ?? ...... or do you mean that you have been able to analyze the results against the MW predictions to generate a winning system. It would be nice to add a MW laying system to this thread if you are willing. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpendle Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Guys, I am about to embark on the rather thankless task of obtaining historical predictions. I am currently building a spreadsheet which will allow me (once I have these predictions), to analyse many different angles in seconds. Does anyone have blank Wray sheets (or at worst, filled in sheets) for as many years as possible, just the Premiership for now. I would be very grateful and hopefully can analyse any ideas you guys may have with regards to the sheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Progambletowin - Welcome to PL. Your post would indicate that you have managed to ascertain (through one means or another) the formulae that MW uses for his predictions. Do you fancy sharing that with us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ell hello to all, I will try to respond to the questions and points made in reply to my opening post! <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /> Hi Merlin, I have skim read most of the thread, and can see that you are still here with the same system after 3 years so you must be doing something correctly. How much profit are you making each year (or more importantly what is your yield % or level points score??) I will try and condense my results sheet and paste the basics on here. The sheet contains a lot of data, but I guess it is just the fixtures and profit that is the most important thing at this stage. Hello to Kanga, you are sort of correct. I already had a system in place that would generate the “optimum odds†for each team in any given fixture. This would use many complex formula’s and data including home form, away form, goals scored at home, goals conceded at home etc etc and would ultimately produce a decimal odd. Basically what the odds are saying is the probability of an event happened. So take the Man U v Chelsea game this weekend, if Man Utd were quoted by my system as 2 (evens), but they were available as 1.8 with bookmakers it would trigger the first part of my system on the way to laying. (Basically, you are giving odds that Man U will win 8/20 games –were the system dictates they will win 10/20 games). I then factored in past meetings, league positioning and other factores to determine a likely outcome (this was the second part of the lay determinator). My system was very good, and worked very well, but the fixture entering and league updating became a bit mundane – until I came across Wray’s databases. So in answer to your questions, no I do not analyse Wray’s predictions, in fact I hide those out completely in my database. Wray’s system is basically a statistical data aid for me to utilise upcoming fixtures, and make look ups of league position, form and past results much easier. Finally Hi to smoking Joe, I would not say that I have ascertained Wray’s formulae as I do not use this directly in my calculations. I have managed to add in features to his spreadsheets for my own benefits using my excel and VBA skills to recover and amend passwords. I also link his spreadsheets to my own results and fixture generator for easy match selection. I have spoken to Michael about the formulae he uses to determine fixtures and it is a tad more basic than the ones I use to calculate the % odds (Driving force behind determining the fixtures), he weights it based on past 5 meetings, then down through league form, and goalscoring exploits. It sometimes gives very skewed predictions – especially if you are looking out 5-10 games ahead. At on stage this season it showed <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Reading winning every league game 4-1, 3-0 or 4-1 (Which will obviously not be the case). A lot of my selections (lays) actually go AGAINST the grain as far as Wray’s match outcome predicts. As I am in effect acting as the bookie, I am working out the probability of team x winning, against the odds (probability) of that happening in monitory terms. In the long run, someone tossing heads or tails at odds of 1.97 will end up the loser, the secret is making lays that give you the edge, and only backing when the bookie has given over generous odds. As in all systems, there will be weeks/ months that are worse than others (even some loosing periods – as a week in December was for me). I will try and paste a snippet of some of my recent selections below, hopefully they paste ok and I have cropped it until the end of last year – so the data below is a 2 week period. Up until 7th Jan (From 13th Dec) Profit £815.60 – Liability £7,106.12 – Yield 11.84% - Win % 64.35 – Points (Level balance profit) 20 – Games 148. This is based on ALL home and Away selections, although the Away selection alone give a much better ROI (I reset my bank on a monthly basis, and started my selections on October 11th) so this period is Month 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ok all up here now :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cracking work there pg2w, though I'm not too sure of the Forum rules re the posting of records and selections after the event with a real cash system but I'm no expert on that so I think it should be OK. The number of selections is what I like along with the decent yield. I have aspirations in the future to develop my own system and try and make some real cash but for the moment am just using MWs excellent sheets and trying to improve my knowledge of Excel and statistics and their application in sports betting. Looking at your figures I'm guessing your average exposure is about 3% of bank per bet, is that right? Also I'm surprised you are still on 5% commission with the amount of betting you must be doing (although never having read up on the exact betfair commission points scheme I maybe be dense). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Eddie, thanks for the heads up ref: forum rules. If this breaks any rules I have no problem with it being removed! Obviously with the more selections presented, the chance of success decreases, I'm not disillusioned enough to believe I can lay 50/50 correctly every week. I've seen one system being sold which claims a 95% success rate - it may well be true, but if you are laying teams at 18.0 and above every week you NEED a 95% success rate just to be breaking even. The closest thing I have seen to my system is actually a horse racing system that lays the favourite. So you are typically laying odds of 3.0 - 5.0 meaning your strike rate will be alot lower, but the overall yield should be higher and more stable. I plan on in-corporating the Germans and Conference leagues into my system in the near future so will be interesting to see what sort of results they produce. My exposure per game is roughly 2.5%, and yes I am on a 5% comission as I changed my account details once my bank card was stolen last September. Excel is best self taught, I have been on numourous courses and seminar's but the best way is to get stuck in yourself. As for VBA - well I once heard a quote "You never understand it, you just learn how to use it" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I have managed to add in features to his spreadsheets for my own benefits using my excel and VBA skills to recover and amend passwords. Spill the beans, old chap (the password that is) :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 7, 2009 Author Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... great writeup Progamble and some nice tables to go with it! If you look back at the end of last season somewhere in the archives of this thread, you will see the three previous years of the 3-0 system results, yield profit etc. I have a spreadsheet in existence that compounds as it goes along, so profits can be even greater than those shown.Also I believe with some extra care and attention, improved odds can be gained to those displayed which again in turn will lend itself to great profits.The theory behind the thinking of this system is that if a team is predicted to win by three clear goals using Michael's sheets, then it should be good enough to win the match outright.This simple system and theory has stood the test of time so there cannot be a great deal wrong in its rising from the ashes.;) btw what are the upcoming fixtures, predicted lays using your system on all the aways? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Spill the beans' date=' old chap (the password that is) :)[/quote'] Joe I am sorry I'm not prepared to do that - I respect Michael's wishes on this aspect. - There are ways and means of obtaining this sort of data though. Anyone who does know the passwords and doesn't believe that I do, I will reveal the first 3 letters of the main password as "ify" :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... great writeup Progamble and some nice tables to go with it! If you look back at the end of last season somewhere in the archives of this thread' date= you will see the three previous years of the 3-0 system results, yield profit etc. I have a spreadsheet in existence that compounds as it goes along, so profits can be even greater than those shown.Also I believe with some extra care and attention, improved odds can be gained to those displayed which again in turn will lend itself to great profits.The theory behind the thinking of this system is that if a team is predicted to win by three clear goals using Michael's sheets, then it should be good enough to win the match outright.This simple system and theory has stood the test of time so there cannot be a great deal wrong in its rising from the ashes.;) btw what are the upcoming fixtures, predicted lays using your system on all the aways? Hi Merlin, glad you enjoyed/ understood my write up! As with your system, the odds are a very important part of making the selections, and become of even greater importance as your stakes increase (Especially in respect to laying). For this reason alone I do not normally disclose the upcoming fixtures until at least I have placed them myself. I use a combination of Betfair and Betdaq. There are 11 selections for away's this weekend, I have matched 5 of them already so I will let you know that 5/11 are: Valencia Villarreal Charlton Athletic Nottingham Forest Swindon Town Stockport County Notts County Exeter City Espanyol Unión Deportiva AlmerÃa Remember you are "Laying" the away teams here. I will post back my full results next week. Any other questions and I'll try pop back during the week although will be without internet access for periods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 7, 2009 Author Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... three selections for the 3-0 system for this weekend :- Fiorentina 1.46 Genoa 1.78 Juventus 1.32 Fingers and toes crossed.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 7, 2009 Share Posted January 7, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Weekend picks +2's Liverpool @ 1.40 Norms Darlington @ 2.40 Valladolid @ 3.20 Here's hoping :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 9, 2009 Share Posted January 9, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. This weeks selections and odds taken. Results to be posted next week! Good luck to all, in all their systems 10-Jan-09 Shrewsbury Town Chester City HOME English League 2 1.73 10-Jan-09 Fulham Blackburn Rovers HOME English Premiership 2.10 10-Jan-09 Middlesbrough Sunderland AWAY English Premiership 3.50 10-Jan-09 Newcastle United West Ham United AWAY English Premiership 3.50 10-Jan-09 Barnsley Southampton HOME English Championship 2.00 10-Jan-09 Cardiff City Derby County HOME English Championship 1.67 10-Jan-09 Charlton Athletic Nottingham Forest AWAY English Championship 2.90 10-Jan-09 Ipswich Town Sheffield Wednesday HOME English Championship 1.85 10-Jan-09 Plymouth Argyle Crystal Palace HOME English Championship 2.75 10-Jan-09 Reading Watford HOME English Championship 1.53 10-Jan-09 Sheffield United Norwich City HOME English Championship 1.70 10-Jan-09 Wolverhampton Wanderers Preston North End HOME English Championship 1.67 10-Jan-09 Scunthorpe United Hereford United HOME English League 1 1.53 10-Jan-09 Swindon Town Stockport County AWAY English League 1 2.63 10-Jan-09 Tranmere Rovers Peterborough United HOME English League 1 2.50 10-Jan-09 Northampton Town Huddersfield Town HOME English League 1 2.63 10-Jan-09 Oldham Athletic Hartlepool United HOME English League 1 1.75 10-Jan-09 Macclesfield Town Port Vale AWAY English League 2 3.40 10-Jan-09 Dagenham & Redbridge Wycombe Wanderers HOME English League 2 2.63 10-Jan-09 Luton Town Rotherham United AWAY English League 2 3.10 10-Jan-09 Notts County Exeter City AWAY English League 2 2.60 11-Jan-09 Udinese Sampdoria AWAY Italian Serie A 3.80 11-Jan-09 Manchester United Chelsea HOME English Premiership 2.30 11-Jan-09 Wigan Athletic Tottenham Hotspur HOME English Premiership 2.50 11-Jan-09 Atlético Madrid Athletic Bilbao HOME Spanish Primera 1.67 11-Jan-09 Espanyol Unión Deportiva AlmerÃa AWAY Spanish Primera 3.60 11-Jan-09 Numancia Getafe HOME Spanish Primera 2.50 11-Jan-09 Racing Santander Recreativo de Huelva HOME Spanish Primera 1.91 11-Jan-09 Sporting Gijon Real Valladolid AWAY Spanish Primera 3.30 11-Jan-09 Valencia Villarreal AWAY Spanish Primera 4.30 11-Jan-09 Bologna Chievo Verona HOME Italian Serie A 1.91 11-Jan-09 Napoli Catania HOME Italian Serie A 1.62 11-Jan-09 Palermo Atalanta HOME Italian Serie A 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted January 10, 2009 Share Posted January 10, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. pg2w - have you got enough selections there matey? ;) Good work Unders Selections 10-Jan-09Plymouth ArgyleCrystal Palace10-Jan-09Northampton TownHuddersfield Town10-Jan-09Shrewsbury TownChester City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dosheroonie Posted January 11, 2009 Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Merlin First of all, respect to you for the longevity of your system, which has clearly stood the test of time. I have a question for you, if I may - did you originally select your picks using the Fink Tank from The Times? I am looking into using the stats from the Fink Tank and have a dim recollection that you have used them in the past. Apologies if this is not correct. But, if you did, are you able to remember whether you found the stats useful? Thanks for your help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... Hi there Dosh and welcome. Your memory serves you half correct. There was a group of us used to experiment using all sorts of different ways.The selections were chosen using I believe using a combination of Bet Genius a package that was around at the time, Fink Tank, and the MW sheets. I think from memory the Fink Tank was any selection had to be 48% or more win prediction, and a similar percentage applied to Bet Genius selections before they qualified. Also the MW sheets were taken from selections which were predicted to win by 1 clear goal. I think I have that right, but there is a thread way back somewhere which has this all on.Kanga was also involved.Thanks for the interest, hope you find what you are looking for.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... Fiorentina let the side down again for a full house, with a poor defeat against Lecce at home 1-2, so two correct from three again, to make the latest position:- Total Staked 900.00 Avg Odds Avg Stake Total Returned 991.71 1.70 10.00 Yield 1.102 10.19% Winners 61 Losers 29 Strike Rate 67.78% Current Bank 191.71 Profit / Loss 91.71 So its still a healthy yield. Back with this coming weekend's later.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... nice results ProG but I'm afraid the stakes are a little too rich for my blood.£40 per time for around 30 games is not exactly peanuts.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Progamble2win Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Merlin, understand completely - but the results are the asme whatever the stakes. For the "Away only", a £5 a game would have returned around £24 profit for less than £100 liability. That is the only draw back to lay betting - you do need some finaicial clout behind you prior to starting. As I said, I was fortunate enough to have £2,000 to invest at the beginning of the season and i'm getting a far better interest rate than any bank would provide :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... its getting to that time to just about ditch the norms young fella, not performing too well and I see little future for them either.Meanwhile the +2's are doing fine, keep up the good work. This weekend's 3-0 selections as the best chance of wins:- Chelsea 1.25 Barcelona 1.31 Cagliari 2.44 The first two are not too inspiring, but hey we have to show what is highlighted, and a bet is a bet.Certainly a nice price for Cagliari, will be interesting to see if they come good on this one.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. You could be right there Merlin.....maybes one more week... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I hope you don't mind me offering an opinion, and apologies if this has been mentioned before as I haven't read the whole thread, but the decision to ditch the Norms system after only 45 bets is surely a bit rash. I don't know exactly what the average strike odds are but it could be the case that the current loss is possibly due to (bad) luck rather than anything else, assuming that the system has performed reasonably well over a period of testing/paper-trailing. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Yeah thanks guys, i feel that the football this season is really unpredicitable, summed up to me by Liverpool failing to beat a team like Stoke twice & West Ham at home :wall & i mean no offence to those two teams... I feel that now is the time teams put form & a long run together so things should start to look up :hope.....Also last season i started spliting the aways into Norms & +2's around late Feb early March time.....Thanks again guys for the encouraging words.... Onwards & Upwards :ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dosheroonie Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... Hi there Dosh and welcome. Your memory serves you half correct. There was a group of us used to experiment using all sorts of different ways.The selections were chosen using I believe using a combination of Bet Genius a package that was around at the time' date= Fink Tank, and the MW sheets. I think from memory the Fink Tank was any selection had to be 48% or more win prediction, and a similar percentage applied to Bet Genius selections before they qualified. Also the MW sheets were taken from selections which were predicted to win by 1 clear goal. I think I have that right, but there is a thread way back somewhere which has this all on.Kanga was also involved.Thanks for the interest, hope you find what you are looking for.:ok Thanks for that, Merlin. I've had a search and have found the thread. I'm looking into a possible system using the Fink Tank and will start a new thread if/when I have investigated a bit further. Will still be following your selections though. Unfortunately I can't seem to access the MW spreadsheets as I don't have Excel and they don't seem to be compatible with Open Office :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Dosh, Is this any help to you - microsoft do a free excel viewer totally legit. Download from here :- http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=c8378bf4-996c-4569-b547-75edbd03aaf0&DisplayLang=en&displaylang=en Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dosheroonie Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Dosh, Is this any help to you - microsoft do a free excel viewer totally legit. Download from here :- http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=c8378bf4-996c-4569-b547-75edbd03aaf0&DisplayLang=en&displaylang=en Nice 1 Kanga. I'll give that a go. (Sorry, Merlin, for taking the thread OT). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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