happygooner Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good luck with this again for the coming year people:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Nice one fellas, lets hope Merlin joins us soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 8, 2008 Author Share Posted August 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi there everyone, yep, its true I'm still around.Michael Wray has not yet presented his sheets on his web site for the new season so we are very much in his hands. I'll drop him an e-mail and see how they are going.Meanwhile its not worth tinkering until around week 7 or so to allow for some form to accrue.Will be back shortly.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 9, 2008 Author Share Posted August 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Just had an e-mail back from Michael and all sheets for 2008-9 are now ready for download.These can be obtained free of charge as usual from his web site:- www.michaelwray.co.nz/sheets.html and are very user friendly. Hope to see you here soon. Thanks. Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi! I have a few questions about that betting system. First of all, how do these 2:0 and 3:0 and 2's systems work? Or is it your own recept you don't want to share :D? And the second question is about that Excel sheet. If the season hasn't begun and there are no results, how come the program is predicting the first week? Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 9, 2008 Author Share Posted August 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Lorenzo. The method we use here has been well documented right throuhout this thread and can be absorbed in previous page contents.However in a nutshell, the systems 2-0 and 3-0 were borne out of experimentation in previous seasons and have shown steady results for around three seasons now. Very simple rules and nothing very hard to follow. Simply take the teams that are predicted to win 2-0 which Clarky now monitors, and the teams predicted to win 3-0 which I monitor, and back them as straight level stake wins each week.Not as correct scores, but as teams to WIN their respective matches in the predicted games.As for predictions this week, I should imagine that this is based mainly on last seasons form and tables,but we never start to monitor and predict wins until at least half a dozen games have passed to allow for teams settling down in their respective divisions.A lot can be learned if you read through the previous pages.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 9, 2008 Share Posted August 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ok, I will read the whole thread eventually I guess. Thank you very much for answering and I will follow this thread from now on and try to predict and bet myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 10, 2008 Author Share Posted August 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No problem there young fella, and hope you can contribute here in future weeks.Be lucky.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. OK chaps, here's my first selections for my EPL Unders System which i introduced last season. Basically i select the games which MW has picked as DRAWS in the EPL and i back them to be Under 2.5 Goals. This is based on my thoughts that Draw selections will be tight affairs with few goals. Saturday 9th August Bolton v Stoke @ 1.65 Middlesborough v Tottenham @ 1.95 Stake = £1 per game Good luck Merlin and Clarky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 10, 2008 Author Share Posted August 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I forgot you were still around also barrhead. I like to get a half dozen games or so under the belt first prior to thinking about any predictions. Anyway good luck for the season, and hope they come up trumps.Cheers. Merlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 10, 2008 Share Posted August 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ok, I read a lot of these spreadsheets, but I have still one question. As I can understand you are betting always 10£, but has anybody tried to bet some % of the current bank or something? You know, like you start with 100£ and bet 7% (7£)this weekend, and let's say you win 25 and next week your bank is 125 and now you bet 8,75£ coz it is 7% from 125. ..or something like that :D Just asking if anyone has done it already, because I think I'm gonna try it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 11, 2008 Author Share Posted August 11, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Lorenzo, and welcome back, good to see that you have absorbed some of the contents of the threads.The method suggested is just a guide and need not be ridgidly adhered to each and every week.It is also a good guide to see the performance using level stakes and a £10 unit.Feel free to do some experimentation, the percentage progressive method should be Ok to use with such a good strike rate particularly in the 3-0 system.Keep us informed should you decide to use this, always interested to find another angle or method.Cheers.Merlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorenzo. Posted August 11, 2008 Share Posted August 11, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cheers, mate. Yeah, I will test it and put my picks in this topic, too. I think I will also wait 4-5 games before I will start using these spreadsheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 12, 2008 Share Posted August 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Watford 3.75 :wall Rochdale 2.65:wall Should of layed the Homes :lol Right, has anyone else got a problem with the Conference & Championship sheets on the prediction bit where the date can be changed, as when i change the dates on mine it automatically changes back to the original dates :@, Clarky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 12, 2008 Author Share Posted August 12, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Does not seem to be a problem with my sheets, they appear to work OK, Iv'e just changed the date and then changed it back again, and worked both times.You are definitely using the Result tab? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 13, 2008 Share Posted August 13, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No merlin,on the prediction bit where you get up next weeks matches.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tafflizgreg Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. have jut come across these excellent spreadsheets,do the 2-0,3-0,just apply to home teams with that scoreline or all matches where prediction is as earlier. i have been doing my own power ratings for a few seasons now.but within these spreadsheets i am able to do this on these ,has any one also used a similiar system based on last 6 matches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. have jut come across these excellent spreadsheets,do the 2-0,3-0,just apply to home teams with that scoreline or all matches where prediction is as earlier. i have been doing my own power ratings for a few seasons now.but within these spreadsheets i am able to do this on these ,has any one also used a similiar system based on last 6 matches Home and Away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Excellent, good to see this coming back for this season. I've downloaded the sheets for the top four English divisions. At the end of last season I started trying to put together a spreadsheet to analyse the MW sheets predictions as sadly there's nothing within the sheets themselves which stores a record of past predictions and how they compare to the actual results. My effort isn't very sophisticated as I'm a bit of a newbie to speadsheets and formulas, etc but I hope it might prove interesting. I think for the moment I'll be going with Merlin's 3-0 system. How many of you have been paper trailing your different systems from the MW sheets and how many using real reddies, if it's not too impertinent a question? edit: how do I post part of a spreadsheet like you guys do with the table, is there an explanation on this sit or somewhere on the net I can follow? I'll have a look now to see if I can figure it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Alright FE, my aways (norms & +2's) showed a profit last season, but i only started in December & tweaked the RFO's ratings into this in March. I'm paper trailing until the start of September & then it's the real thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good luck with that mate. Total Matches 12 Total Goals 25 2.08 per game Total Pred' Goals 21 1.75 per game Correct Score Pred % 33.3% 4 from 12 Overall 1X2 Prediction % 58.3% 7 from 12 Home Prediction % 80.0% 4 from 5 Draw Prediction % 50.0% 2 from 4 Away Prediction % 33.3% 1 from 3 O/U 2.5 Prediction % 58.3% 7 from 12 Over 2.5 Prediction % 50.0% 1 from 2 Under 2.5 Prediction % 60.0% 6 from 10 [/CODE] Ok, I've tried a crude copy and paste from excel into here and wrapped the code tags around. These are from the first week of Championship games, obviously be much better the more games go by. Ed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ato Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ok guys, I´ve downloaded the sheets but haven´t really understanded how to use them. I get the basic idea that you check who has a high probability to win 2-0 or 3-0 and then you bet on them, right? Could someone please make a short checklist on how you use the sheets? Do I need anything more than the sheets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. :welcome ato, the sheets are very easy to use, have a play, enter results,look at the predictions & have fun... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ato, there was a post in one of these Michael Wray discussion threads telling you what to do, but that's a lot of pages to trawl through, someone might know which post it was. edit: I've found it in one minute! yeh! it's in this thred page 12, post 222, Merlin the main man tells you what to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. This weeks picks are NORMS - Bournemouth @ 3.25 Wycombe @ 2.25 +2's - Liverpool @ 1.75 Paper trailing only....:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ato Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Oh very nice welcoming here! Thanks FE for the specific post. I´ll read it through and come back if I have further questions. :clap Edit: How do you guys think the result has been with this system so far? Do you make any money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 14, 2008 Author Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Welcome Ado and Fast Eddie, hope you like the thread and can contribute in some way.Good luck and any problems just give a shout.Cheers. Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otter4 Posted August 14, 2008 Share Posted August 14, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Congrat's guys - I've really enjoyed reading your archived pages! Some really thought provoking stuff. I'm looking forward to following the 3-0 system closely over the forthcoming season. 2 questions - Merlin, do you just select home victories? And only 3- 0, do you disregard 4-1 or 5-2 predictions? Happy gambling for the new season fella's!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 15, 2008 Author Share Posted August 15, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Welcome aboard Otter4. No, we don't just pick home teams.Any teams with a predicted scoreline of a three goal difference or more i.e 4-1 etc, then that team is selected.There is a thread near the end of the season giving the last three seasons performances using this method and all seasons have been profitable.Happy hunting.Cheers. Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ato Posted August 15, 2008 Share Posted August 15, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, I haven´t found out how to PM someone so do you have email? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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