merlin Posted February 26, 2008 Author Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... are you in a position to reveal the contents as yet, or will that come later. If it's paper trialling I should have thought that it would not matter at this stage, and follow it through on here until the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ok then Merlin. Just when i gave up on the DRAW selections in december i reviewed the results and noticed a trend in the EPL whereby a lot of the draw selections were going Under 2.5 goals. I decided to paper trail this starting in december and using the betting strategy that JTW1 uses in his famous unders system i.e. Bet 1 = 1 unit Bet 2 = Return from Bet 1 Bet 3 = Return from Bets 1 and 2 Stop and go back to 1 unit Obviously if any of the bets fail then i go back to 1 unit. Problems occur with matches kicking off at the same time therefore sometimes i have to split the bets up. Since the 16th december there have been 22 qualifying bets, 16 of them have went under (73% strike rate) at average odds of 1.77. Even just using a fixed staking plan of 1 unit per bet has returned a profit of 6.29 (yield 29%) Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 2 EPL Unders for this weekend, first one on Saturday, Derby v Sunderland Under 2.5 goals Stake = 1 unit Odds = 1.65 (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... Iv'e come to the conclusion Clarky, that we are alone you and me. Looks like the others have upped tents and disappeared into the night.Still we will soldier on, had this scenario before and it never hurt.Onwards and upwards my friend!:ok Not deserted, just that my efforts to make something from these sheets have fallen on their arse for now. That and really busy trying to devise otherways of getting rich:tongue2 Still looking in from time to time and all the best of luck with it.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... right barrhead, this is what I make of it so far. You take the predicted draws EPL only and bet 1 point under 2.5 at whatever odds. Any return goes back on to the next bets for 2 successful outcomes, then reverts to the single stake.Correct? This is not quite like JTW as any returns on his bets are then added to the next stake for about 4 or 5 bets I believe from memory.Could work and appears on paper to be interesting, worth a go, and just the sort of thing we are looking for within the framework of these sheets.All has not been exhausted within Michael's sheets yet I feel, and it's definitely worth a try.Look forward with interest.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Clarky you could start using Home RFO Index figures v Away RFO Index Figures as an added filter, and say +10 and above in favour of the away teams to help reduce selections and sort some of the wheat from the chaff. That was exactly what i was thinking of doing......cheers Merlin... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No +2's midweek but there are some Norms Stoke @ 2.6 :eyes Millwall @ 2.84 :wall Brentford @ 2.38 :eyes Bury @ 3 :wall Peterboro @ 2.06 :clap So not a good midweek bash for the Norms Total Staked805.00Total Returned918.09Yield1.14014.05%Winners69Losers92Strike Rate43%Current Bank213.09Profit / Loss113.09 Onto the weekend.... Back soon ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 27, 2008 Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. So thats what i'm gonna do then for the Norms & the +2's for the month of March by using the RFO's home & away ratings where the away rating is 10 or more better than the home rating,this should cut down the selections & by doing that i can raise the stake to 10 pts rather than 5 as 17-19 selections are a wee to many & rather expensive. So the new +2's for this weekend are Man Utd @ 1.35 Chelsea @1.95 & the Norms Stockport @ 3.6 Grimsby @ 3.05 Torquay @ 2.12 Farsley Celtic @ 3.35 Real Madrid @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... appears to be more workable that way Graham, good luck with the new method.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... right barrhead, this is what I make of it so far. You take the predicted draws EPL only and bet 1 point under 2.5 at whatever odds. Any return goes back on to the next bets for 2 successful outcomes, then reverts to the single stake.Correct? This is not quite like JTW as any returns on his bets are then added to the next stake for about 4 or 5 bets I believe from memory.Could work and appears on paper to be interesting, worth a go, and just the sort of thing we are looking for within the framework of these sheets.All has not been exhausted within Michael's sheets yet I feel, and it's definitely worth a try.Look forward with interest.:ok It is the full return that goes on bets 2 and then 3 ie If the Derby games goes under then 1.65 goes onto Bet 2 and so on up to bet3. JTW just uses three bets before stopping as far as i am aware. Anyway, just a paper trail although as always i cant help but stick a nominal amount on just to keep the excitement level up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... as far as I am aware, JTW always adds any returns from the previous bet and then adds a further stake for that week. For example if he returns 10 pts he then adds a stake of another 10pts to make bet 2 20 pts.If this returns say 30 he then adds this to another 10pts stake and so forth.It's immaterial I suppose I have the gist of what you mean.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 28, 2008 Author Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... three selections this weekend for the 3-0 system :- Manchester U (a) 1.35 Burton A (1.94) Salisbury (1.35) Looking for a hat trick of accas.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Might of missed this but i'm now going to add aways from the German,Spanish & Italian top divisions as well. Thankyou to Merlin for sending them to me.....Same criteria as the new (March) system of using the RFO ratings, which brings just one seletion to the Norms table Real Madrid @ 2.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted February 29, 2008 Share Posted February 29, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi fellas. Just thought I'd pop in and say hello. Been really busy these last couple of weeks and am off abroad next week. Not forgotten about the spreadsheets, just not had time to update or monitor them. First time I've looked at the thread for a couple of weeks, looks like you've all been managing very well without me. ;) :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted March 1, 2008 Share Posted March 1, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 2 EPL Unders for this weekend, first one on Saturday, Derby v Sunderland Under 2.5 goals Stake = 1 unit Odds = 1.65 (Bet365) Game finishes 0-0 :) Next bet Bolton v Liverpool UNDER 2.5 Stake 1.65 units Odds 1.65 (B365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... two correct from three with the 3-0 system this weekend, with Burton Albion being the only casualty.Latest position:- Total Staked 1200.00 Avg Stake Avg Stake Total Returned 1309.85 1.66 10.00 Yield 1.092 9.15% Winners 83 Losers 37 Strike Rate 69.17% Current Bank 209.85 Profit / Loss 109.85 Still a good strike rate and still in the Black so I suppose we cannot complain.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. So the new +2's for this weekend are Man Utd @ 1.35 :clap Chelsea @1.95 :clap & the Norms Stockport @ 3.6 :clap Grimsby @ 3.05 :clap Torquay @ 2.12 :eyes Farsley Celtic @ 3.35 :clap Real Madrid @ 2.02 :clap Pretty good weekend for the new system :ok, pleased with that :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted March 2, 2008 Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Pretty good weekend for the new system :ok' date=' pleased with that :ok[/quote'] Nice Something else to keep tabs on clarky. Only problem for next year will be deciding which one of the amazing systems, currently in play at pl, to go with:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 2, 2008 Author Share Posted March 2, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... looking good Graham, cannot complain about those and the new system seems to work fine!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Game finishes 0-0 :) Next bet Bolton v Liverpool UNDER 2.5 Stake 1.65 units Odds 1.65 (B365) Bolton v Liverpool loses. :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Posted March 3, 2008 Share Posted March 3, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Been followin this thread on and off with interest. Ive done something to my folder and cant seem to access my spreadsheets. any chance someone would kindly send me over their last updated on from the serie a, la liga, prem and championship. I know its a bit cheeky, but would be a great help til I figure out what Ive done to mine. Im on vegatuitionathotmail.co.uk. hopeful thanks in advance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 3, 2008 Author Share Posted March 3, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... OK Tiger :welcometo the thread, hope you enjoy. Look in your mailbox the files should be there. Let me know if you have any problems. Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 4, 2008 Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No midweek selections this week,hopefully some at the weekend. Some stats on the aways from the RFO on which leagues are best England EPL = 28% Champ = 28% L1 = 28% L2 = 41% Conf = 31% Spain Prima = 28% Italy Seria A = 23% Germany Bundersliga = 27% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 4, 2008 Author Share Posted March 4, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... likewise with the 3-0 system, there are no selections for these matches.Will be back later with the weekend's selections.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Well a few norms for the weekend & only one lonely +2 Norms Arsenal (Sunday) @ 1.61 Peterboro @ 2.12 Rochdale @ 2.52 MK Dons (Friday) @ 2.26 Forest Green Rovers @ 2.46 +2's Cambridge Utd @ 1.93 Both Bradford City & Stevenage nearly became picks as they were +6 & +3 respectively & we need them to to have been +10 on the RFO's H/A ratings.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted March 5, 2008 Share Posted March 5, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. One EPL Under for this weekend, Sunderland V Everton UNDER 2.5 goals 1 unit @ 1.65 (b365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 6, 2008 Author Share Posted March 6, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... four selections for this weekend for the 3-0 system:- Liverpool 1.44 Real Madrid 1.62 Seville 1.29 Stevenage B (a) 2.05 Here's hoping these will fly the flag!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted March 6, 2008 Share Posted March 6, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Derek, the Man Utd game is the FA cup match,do you do cup games when the teams are from the same division??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 6, 2008 Author Share Posted March 6, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... well spotted Graham, no I do not do cup matches.All altered above. Thanks.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted March 8, 2008 Share Posted March 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good Luck this weekend lads. Merlin, i just updated my EPL and Tottenham is showing as a 3-0. Not sure if this has happened due to the midweek result between Liverpool and West Ham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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