merlin Posted January 7, 2008 Author Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... looks better and easier to compare.Are you sure you have the stat tables the right way around? I would have thought that the +2-0's would have shown the greater yield.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 7, 2008 Share Posted January 7, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. No,i double checked this & there has been some dodgy weeks for the +2s & i started them on 4/12/07, also there has been some big prices in the normal aways that have helped out big time........:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Torquay 1 Burton 2 :@ One game for tonight in the DRAWS. League 1 - Yeovil v Walsall Merlin, I also notice that the Oxford v Weymouth game tonight is showing as a 3-0. Do you agree? I''ve only recently updated my spreadsheets so i'm not 100% confident in them at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 3-0 on mine as well Barrhead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 8, 2008 Author Share Posted January 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... no problem with that fellas, just caught up and note that there is one selection for Tuesday night:- Oxford U (back with odds later) Looks good on paper.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Don't know whether this is of interest to anybody but after downloading the worksheets I tallied how the over/under 2.5 market would have gone from date of last update (end Nov) to present. Results largely inconclusive but there seem to be different patterns developing depending on which league. I had a very small punt on Leyton Orient over, Oxford over & Kidderminster over which helped on the 2 other losses which I followed for first time. Anyway...without further ado: Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Conference Losses - 1 1 goal predicted Wins - 9 Losses - 5 2 goals predicted Wins - 6 Losses - 5 3 goals predicted Wins - 14 Losses - 9 4 goals predicted Wins - 8 Losses - 4 5 goals predicted Wins - 3 Losses – 0 Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Prem 0 goals predicted Wins – 2 (100% CS) 1 goal predicted Wins – 7 Losses - 6 2 goals predicted Wins - 10 Losses – 18 3 goals predicted Wins –9 Losses – 16 4 goals predicted Wins – 3 5 goals predicted Wins - 1 Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – Championship 0 goals predicted Wins – 3 (1 CS) Losses - 1 1 goal predicted Wins - 11 Losses - 10 2 goals predicted Wins - 15 Losses – 21 3 goals predicted Wins – 12 Losses – 17 4 goals predicted Wins – 9 Losses - 7 5 goals predicted Losses – 1 6 goals predicted Losses – 1 Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – League 1 0 goals predicted Wins - 2 Losses – 1 1 goal predicted Wins – 5 Losses - 8 2 goals predicted Wins – 17 Losses - 16 3 goals predicted Wins – 11 Losses - 10 4 goals predicted Wins – 7 Losses - 6 5 goals predicted Losses - 1 Over/Under 2.5 Since 27/11/2007 – League 2 0 goals predicted Wins - 2 Losses – 1 goal predicted Wins – 3 Losses - 4 2 goals predicted Wins – 14 Losses - 20 3 goals predicted Wins – 17 Losses - 14 4 goals predicted Wins – 8 Losses - 5 0 goals predicted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 8, 2008 Share Posted January 8, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. So, can anything useful be gained from this mass of conflicting data or did I just waste my afternoon haha??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi fellas, only found this site yesterday, so just reading back over these posts. Some good stuff here. I've been looking at Michael Wray's spreadsetsheets too over this last week or so. The areas which I thought were worth looking at were: 1) Where 1 side is predicted to win easily - which you boys have cottoned on to long ago, ie the 3-0 threads 2) Backing under 2.5 goals where the spreadsheet predicts 0-0, and overs where 5+ goals are predicted, again it has been covered here 3) Laying teams who are odds on on Betfair who are predicted to lose by the spreadsheet. Can't see anything relating to this here, unless I have missed it. I'm happy to monitor points 2 and 3 for the next few weeks and see how they go if anyone is interested. happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines: 0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. whoops, posted that before I had finished, end of post should read: happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines: 0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Over 2.5 goals: y 5+ goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Over 2.5 goals: y Just to give me an idea if this is worth spending any time on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi fellas, only found this site yesterday, so just reading back over these posts. Some good stuff here. I've been looking at Michael Wray's spreadsetsheets too over this last week or so. The areas which I thought were worth looking at were: 1) Where 1 side is predicted to win easily - which you boys have cottoned on to long ago, ie the 3-0 threads 2) Backing under 2.5 goals where the spreadsheet predicts 0-0, and overs where 5+ goals are predicted, again it has been covered here 3) Laying teams who are odds on on Betfair who are predicted to lose by the spreadsheet. Can't see anything relating to this here, unless I have missed it. I'm happy to monitor points 2 and 3 for the next few weeks and see how they go if anyone is interested. happygooner - could you total up your unders/overs data for all leagues to give something along these lines: 0 goals predicted: Under 2.5 goals: x Yeah i'll do that. No doubt the 0-0's and 5 goal predictions would be the most consistent but not many selections. The laying of odds on thing could be worth a look so yeah, go ahead. I'm going to try and monitor the over/under myself but if I get waylayed feel free to step in. Merlin, this thread could get very very cluttered. Would you prefer I tracked these in a separate thread or are you happy to add to the evergroing lines of research found here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Well here it is, the full round up since end Nov-present for over/under 2.5 market: 0 goals predicted 9-3 wins 1 goal predicted 35-33 wins (very inconclusive) 2 goals predicted 62-80 losses (losing rather badly) 3 goals predicted 63-66 losses (totally inconclusive one way or the other 4 goals predicted 35-22 wins (could be on to something) 5 goals+ predicted 4-3 wins (early days and not many selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Taking just 0 goals, and 4 goals or more we get 48-28 and a healthy strike rate of 63.16% from this small sample of data. Depending on the odds available here this could be worth keeping tabs on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. So the 0 goals and 5+ goals samples are too small to draw any definite conclusions from, but 13/19 combined is a really promising start. 1,2 and 3 goals can be discarded, which is what you would expect. 4 goals is worth monitoring. On this sample it would suggest the average price of overs in these matches should be 1.63. This would be achievable on almost every selection. Have you got the actual scorelines for the 0 and 5+ matches, just to see if it might be worth being even more ambitious with these, eg backing 0-0 or under 1.5 goals for the 0's and backing 4+ goals and unquoted correct scores for the 5+'s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Have you got the actual scorelines for the 0 and 5+ matches, just to see if it might be worth being even more ambitious with these, eg backing 0-0 or under 1.5 goals for the 0's and backing 4+ goals and unquoted correct scores for the 5+'s. I don't but I think it's fairly average to be honest. There were a couple of 0-0 scorelines in the prem which had me quite excited but it didn't replicate in the other leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 76 selections from the sample you have put up. Over how many weeks are these, just to give us an idea how many selections we can expect each week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 76 selections from the sample you have put up. Over how many weeks are these' date=' just to give us an idea how many selections we can expect each week.[/quote'] Like I said, it was end of Nov (basically last time he updated his spreadsheet for each which is 26/27th). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce The Brew Goose Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I'll go through the spreadsheets tomorrow and Friday and get the (hopefully) vulnerable odds on favourites and 0,4 and 5+ goal matches posted by Saturday morning at the latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I'll go through the spreadsheets tomorrow and Friday and get the (hopefully) vulnerable odds on favourites and 0' date='4 and 5+ goal matches posted by Saturday morning at the latest.[/quote'] Good luck, I only hope it doesn't take you as long as it did me haha!:ok :welcomeby the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... hi fellas and a warm welcome to Brucie too. I don't mind in the least what research is done here as long as it all fits under the umbrella of Michael's sheets.So please be my guest it may as well all be all on the one thread then we can keep the related topics all together.The 0-0 unders idea was tracked by myself some time ago, it started off well and had potential because again the thinking behind this move was that if no goals were predicted, there was a good chance that the games concerned may finish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... hi fellas and a warm welcome to Brucie too. I don't mind in the least what research is done here as long as it all fits under the umbrella of Michael's sheets.So please be my guest it may as well all be all on the one thread then we can keep the related topics all together.The 0-0 unders idea was tracked by myself some time ago' date=' it started off well and had potential because again the thinking behind this move was that if no goals were predicted, there was a good chance that the games concerned may finish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... well they can and are absorbing and can be very time consuming.I used to tread a lonely furrow trying to keep abreast of ideas and have always been convinced that these sheets have more to offer than their godly presentation!The early pioneers of these sheets I felt trod the wrong pathway, seeking only to track the scorelines which in my humble opinion was the wrong avenue to persue.Correct scores are one of the hardest things on the planet to predict.I feel that there is some leverage in looking at the forecast h,a or d and backing these in some way, but alas never got around to it! Anyway onwards and upwards my friends!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I'm gonna try and download/update the 3 Euro sheets tonight so maybe even more over/unders to play. What do you mean by the forecast? Home/away & draws already being monitored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... PM me with your e-mail address and I will attach the Euro sheets fully updated, save you some work. What I meant by taking the predicted matches forecast, was to take a League or Division of 12 matches or so and back them in some form of multiple as they stand 1,2 or X see how they go.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... PM me with your e-mail address and I will attach the Euro sheets fully updated, save you some work. What I meant by taking the predicted matches forecast, was to take a League or Division of 12 matches or so and back them in some form of multiple as they stand 1,2 or X see how they go.;) Oh right yeah I got you. I'll pm you now. Cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... look in your box the files are zipped as they were too large to send otherwise. Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cheers merlin Results of over/under in the 3 Euro leagues are in. Very inconclusive on the top end of the spectrum but might not be such a good idea to dismiss 2 goal predictions out of hand as they outperform all others in Europe by some way....at least for the month of December. Totals 0 goals predicted 3-2 1 goal predicted 11-10 2 goals predicted 20-11 3 goals predicted 20-20 4 goals predicted 9-5 5 goals+ predicted 3-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 9, 2008 Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Has anybody ever looked at the Champs League sheet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 9, 2008 Author Share Posted January 9, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... Don't really know, I have not downloaded this sheet at all, I always thought that these kind of matches did not have the same attraction for me as they reminded me very much of the Cup matches.At the end of the day that is their very purpose to enter the knockout stages, so I opted out, and I have never ever seen anything mentioned in these forums.Have you got the Conference downloaded also? I have this updated if there are any copies required.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happygooner Posted January 10, 2008 Share Posted January 10, 2008 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... Don't really know' date=' I have not downloaded this sheet at all, I always thought that these kind of matches did not have the same attraction for me as they reminded me very much of the Cup matches.At the end of the day that is their very purpose to enter the knockout stages, so I opted out, and I have never ever seen anything mentioned in these forums.Have you got the Conference downloaded also? I have this updated if there are any copies required.;)[/quote'] Yeah, i've got all the leagues now. Wouldn't mind seeing what the Champs League one is all about before next set of games. Will have to take a good look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted January 10, 2008 Share Posted January 10, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.