RussP Posted May 25, 2006 Share Posted May 25, 2006 Another new system based on handicaps only. Again, let's see how it goes for a while: 1 for tomorrow which is... 3.30 Newm YOUNG MICK (RPF 12/1) 6.35 Pont EXIT SMILING (RPF 14/1).....sorry, added at 18.12pm. I originally posted it in the Time 4 a System thread....wrong bloody system. 5pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 25, 2006 Share Posted May 25, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System What is the system based on RussP? I looked in Systems and Strategy to see if you'd posted it there but couldn't find anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 25, 2006 Author Share Posted May 25, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System Mowgli, Basically its based around all-age handicaps of 1m+ (which usually, but not always, negates the draw factor). I look for horses near the top of the weights but with recent form (not necessarily winning form due to affect of their h'cap mark). I also look for a min of 10 runners and ideally won't back anything less than 5/1 in RPF as this is an EW system. There is some set criteria behind it but at this stage, I don't want to be bothered posting all of this as it may fall flat on its head (in fact, it probably will!). I have followed this for a couple of seasons but not fully recorded all the selections so all I can say is that it does get its fair share of winners / placed horses. One such qualifier of the system this week was Goodbye Mr Bond which I tipped in another thread and it duly responded at 7/1 EP. Good luck or good judgement.... you decide but probably the former:tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 25, 2006 Share Posted May 25, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System I like to see the thinking behind a system and people often pick up on things that are profitable. I thought I had struck on something with the carrying a penalty/ridden by a claimer but it only produced a few winners. The soft/heavy ground didn't help either though. I like the thinking behind your system and handicaps are usually good places for value, especially ew value. I usually stick to listed/group races for bigger bets but you can often pick up a good return from a small stake in the type of race you mention. I'll be following this thread so best of luck with it, hope it provides plenty of winners and profit.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted May 25, 2006 Share Posted May 25, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System E/W value is in non-handicaps Re: Bayes Theorem and E/W Betting and Slapdash method. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System Another new system based on handicaps only. Again, let's see how it goes for a while: 1 for tomorrow which is... 3.30 Newm YOUNG MICK (RPF 12/1) 6.35 Pont EXIT SMILING (RPF 14/1) :nana .....sorry, added at 18.12pm. I originally posted it in the Time 4 a System thread....wrong bloody system. 5pts EW YOUNG MICK.....non runner EXIT SMILING.....Won 12/1 (took 14/1 EP) :nana 20pts staked 107.50pts returned P/L +87.50pts:nana (also, see other thread "Time 4 a System" for what was truely a brilliant day for me:ok . Hope some of you were on, especially you Mowgli) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System Did anyone get on it?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System 1 runner, 1 winner so far at 14/1. One for Saturday although it doesn't quite fulfil all the criteria (running over 7f but no expected draw bias, so I'll include it) 3.15 Catt HARTSHEAD (RPF 8/1) 5pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 26, 2006 Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System I was at Ponty mate and out all afternoon playing snooker. Your horse Exit Smiling ran a cracking race. As I said there is certainly ew value in handicaps and today you found it. Well done fella. :ok I had My Obsession which ran no sort of race. The horses out in front set the pace and were the only one's looking like winning. Wish i'd had a small ew on your horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2006 Author Share Posted May 26, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System Cheers Mowgli:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System 1 runner, 1 winner so far at 14/1. One for Saturday although it doesn't quite fulfil all the criteria (running over 7f but no expected draw bias, so I'll include it) 3.15 Catt HARTSHEAD (RPF 8/1)....2nd 10/1:D 5pts EW Today 10pts staked 15pts returned P/L +5pts Overall Runners - 3 Winners - 1 (14/1) Placed - 1 (10/1) Losers - 0 N/R - 1 Stakes = 30pts Returns = 122.50pts P/L = +92.50pts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 27, 2006 Author Share Posted May 27, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System No bet Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 28, 2006 Author Share Posted May 28, 2006 Re: Weight / Form System No bet Monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 29, 2006 Author Share Posted May 29, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? No bet Tuesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 30, 2006 Author Share Posted May 30, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? One for Wednesday: TAXMAN (5.35 Yarmouth) RPF 6/1 5pts EW REDEYE SPECIAL (4.30 Yarmouth) would have qualified but for the anticipated short price (RPF 7/2) so is not included here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? :notworthy :notworthy :clap :clap :clap Placed : 31/05/2006 11:13:31 Bet Type : EW SinglesStake : 4.002 bets @ 2.00 per betStatus5-35 YarmouthTaxman@ 8/1 OpenTransaction Number : F58135301 thanks mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? :clap A return on every horse that has run so far. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Kevsul - Glad I could be of assistance mate:ok but I honestly never thought you'd listen to me after our "meeting" at York:lol FF - Thanks, mate:ok I have to say it's going rather well at the minute:hope TAXMAN - Won 7/1:nana , took 8's opening show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Can't believe it, made a note of this after reading your thread last night, forgot all about it and then saw that it had won. I had faith in your selection and forgot to back it, gutted. Well done anyway, keep up the good work and the winners. Good price too.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Can't believe it' date= made a note of this after reading your thread last night, forgot all about it and then saw that it had won. I had faith in your selection and forgot to back it, gutted. Well done anyway, keep up the good work and the winners. Good price too.:clap Mowgli, That's both EXIT SMILING (W14/1) and TAXMAN (W8/1) that you have missed. I'm gutted for you especially after the support you've given me on this thread. But beware....it will probably be 3rd time UNlucky.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 31, 2006 Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? I don't mind backing a few of yours that lose if your winners are returning at 7-1 and 14-1. I opposed Exit Smiling as I fancied something else but pissed off with myself for missing Taxman after making a note to back it. Your profit for this thread must be looking pretty awesome at the moment. Within a week or two you'll have about 50 people following this thread and the pressure will be on. I'm sure you'll deliver some more cracking winners.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Today 10pts staked 60pts returned P/L +50pts Overall Runners - 4 Winners - 2 (14/1 & 8/1) Placed - 1 (10/1) Losers - 0 N/R - 1 Stakes = 40pts Returns = 182.50pts P/L = +142.50pts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 31, 2006 Author Share Posted May 31, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? :clap A return on every horse that has run so far. :clap No pressure then:lol Selection for Thursday is: ROTUMA (3.55 Yarmouth) RPF 6/1 5pts EW 2nd run in 24 hours. Drawn well which should help it get the good early position it needs and should benefit from new jockey (S Kelly). Clearly in good heart and racing in 0-55 today as opposed to 0-65 hcap yesterday gives this horse an outstanding chance provided the exertions of 2 runs so close together don't hold any problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 1, 2006 Author Share Posted June 1, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Well, what do you know....the first horse unpl but ROTUMA was 4th @ 13/2 (15 runners but one N/R:@ ) Today 10pts staked 0pts returned P/L -10pts Overall Runners - 5 Winners - 2 (14/1 & 8/1) Placed - 1 (10/1) Losers - 1 N/R - 1 Stakes = 50pts Returns = 182.50pts P/L = +132.50pts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 1, 2006 Author Share Posted June 1, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? 2 for Friday, both recommended 5pts EW:- CROSSPEACE (2.45 Epsom) RPF 16/1 Carries a big weight but is a Group/Listed class animal. Although it has form over further, I think the step back to 10f is a big plus, having been placed on all 3 runs over this trip. CALATAGAN (4.50 Catterick) RPF 10/1 Very useful dual purpose horse. Based on its jump form, it is well handicapped. If it can settle early (which has been a problem in the past), it should run a big race. Drops in class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 2, 2006 Author Share Posted June 2, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? 2 for Friday, both recommended 5pts EW:- CROSSPEACE (2.45 Epsom) RPF 16/1....unpl CALATAGAN (4.50 Catterick) RPF 10/1....2nd 7/1 20pts staked 13.75pts returned Loss of 6.25pts today Overall Runners - 7 Winners - 2 (14/1 & 8/1) Placed - 2 (10/1 & 7/1) Losers - 2 N/R - 1 Stakes = 70pts Returns = 196.25pts P/L = +126.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 3, 2006 Author Share Posted June 3, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? 2 for tonight at Chepstow: THEATRE (7.10 Chepstow) 7.50 at Blue Square The further the better for this horse so 2m2f ideal. Good jockey booking, rode horse once before and 2nd to The Nawab. Drop in class here so bold show expected. OPTIMUM (8.10 Chepstow) 34.00 at Bet365 Form 12 months ago finishing placed against such class horses as Fair Along and Detroit City make gives this horse a squeak. Poor comeback run but hopefully that pipe opener will have put it spot on. Both 5pts EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 3, 2006 Author Share Posted June 3, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Absolutely shite tonight:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 3, 2006 Author Share Posted June 3, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? You'll be pleased to hear "No Bet Sunday" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 4, 2006 Author Share Posted June 4, 2006 Re: RussP - Weigh up the form and make a profit? Bet for Monday evening: GRAMADA (9.00 Windsor) 5pts EW RPF 15/2 Outclassed in listed race lto on unsuitably heavy going. Back in its grade (won last time in a Class 5 race) and on favoured G-F ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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