BH's E/W Golf Selections

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Nice one Graham, makes sense and good to see you doing so well in the Golf.:clap

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections This weeks bets; BMW Championship N.O'Hern Top ROTW player 16/1 >Betfred (1/4 123) Now this guy has been on the PGA Tour lately and played very well last week at The Colonial, this time last year he was at the top of his game and loved this course, he's high on the stats for a few different aspects of the game, obviously he has Els and Goosen to contend with in this market but 16/1 is just too good to let go. D.Howell Top GB/Ire player 10/1 >Betfred (1/4 1234) If there was no doubt about his fitness this would be a superb bet, i'll take that on trust as he says its much better, in the top English market he's about 6/1, a bit bigger here mainly because of Clarke and Harrington so with Clarke not knowing how he's breaking 75 and Harrington hating this course we must take the value odds. Always seems to play his best golf when contending the 'big' tourneys and outside the Open this is the biggest in Europe this season. St Jude Classic F.Jacobson 6/1 Top ROTW @ VCbet (1/5 1234) Freddie is only 7/4 to be Top European and with only a couple of live dangers from elsewhere its worth taking them on for the inflated price and the 4 places. Terrific record here and played very well last week. J.Senden 8/1 Top ROTW (minus the Europeans) @ >PaddyPower (1/5 1234) This Aussie is playing very consistantly this season, another decent show last week and has played well here before, he's a big 14/1 with VCbet but we lose Jacobson and Richard Johnson by betting in this market so getting rid of two good players is worth it in my opinion.

[BillyHills]

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Nice going Graham, bet you wish you backed Poulter outright now!?

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Ok on to this weeks events. Memorial S.Ames Top ROTW Player 10/1 VC Bet (1/4 123) As Bobby said earlier this market leaves the Aussies alone and i'm happy to do that with the form they are showing just lately. Ames is top class no doubt about that, played really well here in the past, loves the big tournaments and we are getting good odds against out of form opponents. C.Pettersson Top European Player 14/1 >PaddyPower (1/4 123) Only 13 Europeans getting in the tournament this year and a few of them are woeful at the moment. Howell is fav but i dont like backing guys who have just won, especially then having to make the long trip to the US, 3/1 is poor value. Garcia, Westwood, Casey and Poulter all have reasons to leave alone this week, we even have an amateur player in the market so all in all it leaves just Pettersson, Rose and Owen. Owen withdrew last time after missing the cut the time before and Rose just keeps firing a big number to spoil his tournament. Pettersson has played here twice and made the cut both times, in fact last time out was the first time he missed the cut since last August and he shot 70,72 hardly bad golf! 7/2 a place seems good value to me. Wales Open Paul Lawrie Top GB/Ire Player 28/1 Stan James (1/4 1234) Won this in 2002 and shot 4 rounds in the 60's last year, had a short break and has been in contention the last 3 weeks, reaching his peak for this event knowing that a lot of the 'stars' are away in the US. Robert Karlsson Top European Player 12/1 >PaddyPower (1/4 1234) Good finishes in 4 out of the last 5 weeks, a couple of bad shots at the wrong time cost him dear last week but returning to something like himself. Played well here before and looks primed for a lesser event like this sooner or later. BH

[BillyHills]

[SLH]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections :clap Every kid in the town knows that BH stands for the finest quality (Beverly Hills, Benson&Hedges, Benny Hill,...)

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Outstanding effort last week Graham, long may it continue.

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Many thanks SLH and David, for those who dont know David backed Pettersson to win at 40/1, much smarter than me!! Anyway cant beat last week but here goes nothing; Austrian Open Simon Dyson Top GB/Ire Player 11/1 (1/4 1234 >PaddyPower) Dyson specializes in picking up enough money in these minor tournaments to climb the order of merit, never quite gets there in the decent events but with only Monty(busy behind the scenes) and McGinlay(only second event after surgery) of any note in opposition this price looks very good value, we get 11/4 a place and he's in great form. Steven O'Hara Top GB/Ire 40/1 (1/4 123 >Betfred) Going for a long shot here but with good reason, O'Hara a youg Scot on the way up, seems to miss a round out most weeks but is capable of putting it all together one day, only 3 places with Betfred but only 33's with all the other firms and he's one of those guys who will either win or miss the cut so i may aswell take the extra points on offer. Worth a small bet in this field. Barclays Classic Sergio Garcia Top European 9/2 (1/5 1234 Stan James) Garcia came back last week after a short break and played well for three rounds looking a bit rusty, showed me enough to suggest he's had this event in his mind this season to build up his confidence for the Open next week. Won here a couple of years ago and been placed a few times. 5/1 in places but Stan James kindly gives us a 4th place which gives us a nice bet to nothing almost. Sure to be thereabouts Greg Owen Top European 25/1 (1/5 1234 SOdds) Worth a small E/W bet on Owen who continues to impress without reaching the frame. Many Europeans will be treating this as a warm up for next week and settling down in the US but Owen plays here all the time and maybe more focussed on this week. BH

[peejaytwo]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections top stuff billy,shame i didnt stake any money on them. like the photos on the website as well btw.:)

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Latest Update Simon Dyson finishes Top European by 4 shots to keep the run going, Steve O'Hara was joint 3rd with 4 others so a small profit. In the States Garcia pulled out after the first round so no run there and Greg Owen didnt even start, so we got our money back at least.

Date	Event	Selection	Result	Price	Profit
11/06/2006	Austrian Open	S.Dyson Top Euro (1/4 1234)	won	12.00	13.75
11/06/2006	Austrian Open	S.O'Hara Top Euro (1/4 123)	placed(jt)	41.00	2.00
11/06/2006	Barclays Classic	S.Garcia Top Euro (1/4 1234)	lost	5.50	-2.00

lost	54
placed	15
won	12
bets	81
stakes	162
strike rate	50.00
yeild	89.60
profit	145.15

Cheers BH PS; Thanks PeeJayTwo for the comments, i've got lots of photo's to upload soon to the website, some Golf ones from the British Masters among them.

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Great work as ever on the Golf Graham. Good luck this week.

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Just realised i only posted these in the Golf threads! US Open Ian Poulter Top GB/Ire Player 14/1 >Paddys (1/4 123) Only a handful to consider here and with Donald, Howell and Harrington such poor value Poulter is worth a go at 14/1. Playing well in the states on the whole and figures high up in the accuracy stats which will be needed here more than anywhere. G.Ogilvy Top Australasian 8/1 >Paddys (1/4 123) Adam Scott is fav for this but not one on my side, with Appleby not accurate enough and O'Hern not long enough its a toss up between Allenby and Ogilvy. Allenby has withdrawn from his last two events so cant be backed seriously so the 8/1 about the selection appeals. S.Ames Top ROTW 14/1 VCBet (1/4 123) Much smaller odds at some places this market doesnt include the Australians either. Ames usually plays well in the big tournaments and i cant have Els (form) Singh (price) or Goosen (inconsistant) at the moment. Doesnt miss many cuts and his stats for GIR are good. European Tour Lee Slattery 22/1 @ Sporting Odds (1/4 12345) Posting early this week as i fear the 22/1 about Lee Slattery may vanish fairly soon. Very much one of the stars of the future and stands out in this company for me. Played well last two weeks to earn some decent money against much better opposition. Comes here to keep his form going and cant be far away. Alvaro Salto 100/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/4 12345) Its ok guys, im not going mad, this Spaniard is actually way over priced, it says 125/1 in the table above but thats gone so 100/1 will have to do. Won on the Challenge Tour in May and made the cut with the big boys last week only to shoot an 80, came back with a 70 on sunday to earn a few euro's. Finished well up the field here a couple of times so win or lose it must be value in a shocking event. Not going that great as we speak!

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Amazingly the run continues with Geoff Ogilvy being the Top Aussie by 3 shots, Poulter missed out by just 1 shot but the others were way off the mark.

Date	Event	Selection	Result	Price	Profit
18/06/2006	US Open	I.Poulter Top UK/Ire (1/4 123)	lost	15.00	-2.00
18/06/2006	US Open	S.Ames Top ROTW (1/4 123)	lost	15.00	-2.00
18/06/2006	US Open	G.Ogilvy Top Aussie (1/4 123)	won	9.00	10.00
18/06/2006	Aa St Omer Open	A.Salto (1/4 12345)	lost	100.00	-2.00
18/06/2006	Aa St Omer Open	L.Slattery (1/4 12345)	lost	23.00	-2.00

Latest Update

lost	58
placed	15
won	13
bets	86
stakes	172
strike rate	48.28
yeild	85.55
profit	147.15

Cheers

[BillyHills]

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Had to happen sooner or later Graham. Still a mighty fine set of figures though.

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Cheers david, here we go again! Buick Championship V. Taylor 40/1 @ BetDirect (1/4 12345) Vaughn Taylor has improved no end this year and after a couple of weeks off i'm looking for him to bounce back in a poor field, like the look of Jerry Kelly and Lucas Glover aswell but Taylor looks the most likely. S.Maruyama Top ROTW 11/1 @ PPower (1/4 1234) This guy looks on the way back after a lean time of late, a good finish last time will do him a lot of good and looks to have a decent event in him before too long so will take a chance while the big boys are away. Only 8 Europeans compete this week and the prices are very poor, Justin Rose would have been my fancy but at 4/1 its not value. French Open MA Jimenez Top European 9/1 @ PPower (1/4 1234) You can get 10/1 in places but this price enables me to stake more on Sports Punter so is worth the cut, amazingly consistant and should not be this big so we get value straight away, plays the course well and is in good form and will win a tournament soon believe me. B.Dredge Top GB/Ire 20/1 @ PPower (1/4 1234) Playing on top of his game just now and is worth following when in this mood, a big 50/1 to win the event because of the strong field but we will take some of the opposition out in this market and hope for the best. L.Westwood Top English 25/1 @ VC Bet (1/4 1234) Maybe a surprising tip to some but this guy is quality and just should not be this price, he his 28/1 to be top GB/Ire but we lose Harrington, McGinlay, Mcdowell and Dredge in this market so its great value. Trying to get some confidence back before the Ryder Cup and the Open and just cant be ignored

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections This weeks selections Deutsche Bank L.Donald Top GB/IRE player 7/1 >Paddy Power (1/4 1234) Donald in my opinion is the best player from europe at the moment and 7/1 is a good value bet when you think we lose the Europeans in this market. 4 places paid which attracts me to this even more and a bet to nothing in my book. H.Stenson Top European Player 10/1 >Paddy Power ( 1/4 1234) Stenson has been tweaking his swing hence the iffy form of late but did show signs of the old game last couple of outings and only a matter of time before he strikes again, again 4 places in an ordinary European field for the cash on offer. C.Schwartzel Top ROTW Player 16/1 >Betfred ( 1/5 1234) Goosen is 3/1 fav for this market and i cant argue with that but i'll look a bit further for some value and go with Schwartzel who has been very consistant this season and played another solid tournament last week. US Bank PGA J.Kelly Outright 40/1 General (1/4 12345) Jerry Kelly played last week which puts me off a bit but at this price is worth a chance against some guys who have had lots of chances. Kelly is steadily coming into form and showed his well being with a good display last week. C.Franco Top Non American 16/1 (1/5 1234) Franco has let me down this season a few times but in a very weak ROTW market he must have a chance to shine this week, the market includes the Europeans aswell but only a handful are taking part and none look likely to me. Nick O'Hern is 7/2 fav and will probrably win it but its too short. Cheers BH

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Scandinavian Masters Top GB/Ire Player J.Spence 50/1 & M.Foster 22/1 both >Paddy Power (1/4 1234) Going for two against the field here as they both have similar profiles and the prices are that good i cant leave one or the other out. Jamie Spence who hasnt done too much in recent seasons has played well on this course in the past and with good finishes in the last few weeks is on top of his game, 50/1 is too big and worth a small bet. Mark Foster also has played well here and been in the money in his last 5 tournaments, ultra consistant and must be in with a shout in a very weak GB contingent. P.Heblom Top Scandinavian 33/1 Sporting Odds (1/4 1234) Heblom has been overlooked in this market, maybe because many are in decent form but he's playng well this season and loves this course with a couple of high finishes. Sandelin is tempting also at a similar price. JF Remesey Top European 12/1 VC Bet (1/4 123) Remesey has had a terrible season to date but showed signs of comong back to form over the last 3 weeks, one bad round has ruined his chances but looks sure to get it right soon, worth backing in a substandard field. Only 3 places with VC but only 9/1 elswhere, take your pick! Buick Open M.Weir Top ROTW 12/1 >BetFred (1/4 12345) With Singh being a short price for this market we get some value here with a player that fits the bill for this event, its rarely won by a inexperienced player and Weir's course knowledege will help, he's not had a great year but makes a lot of cuts and could give us a decent run. As Bobby says above Betfred are playing dangerous figures here with the place terms, cant see it lasting! B.Davis Top European 7/2 >Bet365 (1/3 1,2) Might look a poor value bet but with only 6 players in the market and 1/3odds first two we get a chance of a free bet for coming second. Davis has been very consistant in the last 6 events he's played and will be disappointed if he cant see off the likes of Chopra, Levet, Gronberg, Bjornstadd and Cejka. BH

[mcgin]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Prices have fallen on some of these BH, is there still value in em? Spence into 40/1 & Foster 18/1 Heblom into 25/1

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Nice work with Schwartzel last week Graham. I like to back him regularly and the week I dont the bugger goes and figures in the shake up!! Good luck this week.

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Mcgin, Not surprised really thats why i like to bet before wednesdays, more often than not they start to shorten up prices as we reach Thursday. Dont know if they have been tipped by any trade papers, they come out wednesdays also so its worth backing your fancies on tuesday nights. I would still have picked Spence and Foster at those prices to be honest. Heblom was picked because of the price, the way i see it many of the Scandinavians have equal chance and 33/1 was just too big. Dave, cheers mate, fancy your mate Sandelin a bit this week, any thoughts? BH

[mcgin]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Thanks BH. Keep up the good work.

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections

Dave, cheers mate, fancy your mate Sandelin a bit this week, any thoughts?

Yeah I don't see why not. He goes off the boil after a good run so he must be due a good week. Last weeks efforts in Germany suggest he could be aqbout to turn that corner again and he's good value. His GIR and driving accuracy are up on recent years which suggests hes back enjoying his golf.

[davidmphill]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Nice steady start from Sandelin. You watch the fcuker go and land it now!

[BillyHills]

[BillyHills]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Not the best of tournaments this week. The International Daniel Chopra Top European 14/1 Stan James (1/4 123) If you look at the stats you can see that Chopra actually has had more birdies than anyone else on the PGA Tour with 312, he also lies 21st in the Eagle list so fits the bill perfectly, at 14/1 to be top European i reckon this is a bit of value. C.Villagas Top ROTW Player 14/1 >BetFred (1/5 1234) Important to note that this market with BetFred does NOT include the Europeans which it does at some places so be careful. He also figures well in the stats and must be in line for rookie of the year, very aggressive and if things click he could go close to winning it at 66/1. KLM Open P.McGinlay Top GB Player 10/1 >Paddy Power (1/4 1234) With Ryder Cup points so vital at the moment the focus will be on McGinaly and Broadhurst who are fighting out the last spot at present. With this in mind i'm backing McGinlay to be top GB player, he can handle the pressure and has has gradually been improving since his knee operation, another good display last time out and he will be battling all the way to be at the KClub in afew weeks time. Peter Lawrie Top GB Player 33/1 >Paddy Power (1/4 1234) Another player who is gradually coming into form, has been struggling a bit but his stats read well this season, improving in many areas, just needs his putter to work and he'll be in business, worth taking a chance in such a poor event. G.Fdez Castano Top European 11/1 >Paddy Power (1/4 1234) This guy has shot to prominence this year with a great victory over Stenson earlier on. Won in Holland before although not on this course and played superb stuff in the Open at Hoylake. This event by contrast is much weaker with the favourites being Soren and Anders Hansen which says it all. Must go close. BH

[wizard]

Re: BH's E/W Golf Selections Hi, Im a golf junkie, and love nothing better than watching the golf late on Sky on a Sunday night. Ive been following this thread from the start and have been lucky enough to stick on most of your winners. What I would like to know is if we will ever be given any further insights in to your system and record keeping? :tongue2 Also, are you a reader of Elliots Golf Form book? Cheers, and keep up the good work!