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Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan


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First of all may I thank FleetFantic for making me look at the reasoning behind this thread. The basic idea is backing the BLACK SPOT in the racing post but only horses that were in the FIRST THREE LTO. I been keeping an eye on them and are doing quite well. Yesterday decided to have a go on all the qulifiers and if more than one black spot that had finnished in the first three choosing the one that was best last time out. There were 28 races over the flat yeasterday and if you only considered the races that qulified for the above idea their were 13 races and 7winners this is a very simple idea and when I've bought the post noticed it does well. Also if you followed every black spot blindly you would have a s/rate of approx 28-30% and hoping by following this idea will improve the s/rate. I intend to put up all the qulifiers every weekend and on days when I get the post. This will be a trial until the end of MAY and todays picks are below. Salisbury. BENTONG 2.30 GILDED 3.40 DEGAS ART 4.50 HAMILTON. MY MIRASOL 2.05 CHARLOTTE VALE 3.50 DREAM CHAMPION 4.25 ONLY TIME WILL TELL 5.00 NEWMARKET CACTUS KING 1.45 /[levera relised to late] MUSICANNA 2.15 SHIROCCO 2.35 NANNINA / SILCA'S SISTER 3.30 COUNTRY PURSUIT 5.15 Surgested stake 2pts per race 1pt each 3.30n This as been doing well of late and whether the trend continues we will have to see. I'm also looking at the Irish racing as well to see if it performs but not including their horses at present. The % MAN

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

First of all may I thank FleetFantic for making me look at the reasoning behind this thread. The basic idea is backing the BLACK SPOT in the racing post but only horses that were in the FIRST THREE LTO. I been keeping an eye on them and are doing quite well. Yesterday decided to have a go on all the qulifiers and if more than one black spot that had finnished in the first three choosing the one that was best last time out. There were 28 races over the flat yeasterday and if you only considered the races that qulified for the above idea their were 13 races and 7winners this is a very simple idea and when I've bought the post noticed it does well. Also if you followed every black spot blindly you would have a s/rate of approx 28-30% and hoping by following this idea will improve the s/rate. I intend to put up all the qulifiers every weekend and on days when I get the post. This will be a trial until the end of MAY and todays picks are below. Salisbury. BENTONG 2.30 :D GILDED 3.40 :D DEGAS ART 4.50 :D HAMILTON. MY MIRASOL 2.05 3RD CHARLOTTE VALE 3.50 :eyes DREAM CHAMPION 4.25 3RD ONLY TIME WILL TELL 5.00 :eyes NEWMARKET CACTUS KING 1.45 :eyes /[levera relised to late] :D MUSICANNA 2.15 :eyes SHIROCCO 2.35 :D NANNINA :eyes / SILCA'S SISTER 3.30 :eyes COUNTRY PURSUIT 5.15 3rd Surgested stake 2pts per race 1pt each 3.30n This as been doing well of late and whether the trend continues we will have to see. I'm also looking at the Irish racing as well to see if it performs but not including their horses at present. The % MAN
5 winners from 14 runners thats a 35.9% s/rate and although the SPs were short today if a strike rate like this could be kept to this standard with better prices a long term profit could be achieved we will just have to see. TOTAL STAKED 24PTS RETURN 19.99PTS -4.01PTS
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Morning chaps, I've run your rules through my RSB software for all flat & aw racing between 1991 to 2003. Postmark top rated, first 3 LTO. YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

1991 71 322 22.05 -63.38 -19.68 1992 81 351 23.08 -69.82 -19.89 1993 72 288 25.00 -4.33 -1.50 1994 90 393 22.90 -7.47 -1.90 1995 111 463 23.97 -17.32 -3.74 1996 130 610 21.31 -107.18 -17.57 1997 158 657 24.05 -37.11 -5.65 1998 349 1368 25.51 -167.44 -12.24 1999 515 1809 28.47 19.58 1.08 2000 503 1873 26.86 -155.42 -8.30 2001 504 2018 24.98 -156.31 -7.75 2002 531 2032 26.13 -76.27 -3.75 2003 566 2256 25.09 -213.90 -9.48 ____________________________________________________________

3681 14440 25.49 -1056.37 -7.32 As you can see this shows an overall loss with only 1999 showing a small profit. I then did a bit of filtering & came up with the following, trying to keep it as simple as posible. Postmark top rated. 1st or 2nd LTO. Ran within last 7 days. 4yo+ & all age handicaps, 3yo handicaps, 3yo & all aged conditions races. Horse age 3yo or 4yo. Which gives, YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

1991 5 24 20.83 8.26 34.42 1992 3 21 14.29 -3.50 -16.67 1993 8 18 44.44 7.01 38.94 1994 4 17 23.53 4.83 28.41 1995 4 20 20.00 -5.40 -27.00 1996 11 33 33.33 14.66 44.42 1997 11 41 26.83 -6.52 -15.90 1998 28 84 33.33 6.52 7.76 1999 48 131 36.64 29.47 22.50 2000 48 139 34.53 4.21 3.03 2001 47 168 27.98 6.25 3.72 2002 54 166 32.53 26.99 16.26 2003 51 175 29.14 2.47 1.41 ____________________________________________________________

322 1037 31.05 95.25 9.19 This gives an overall profit with only 3 minor losing years from a decent amount of selections. Rio.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Thanks for that input whoneedsrio and the extra filter. One of the reasons for the trial was to see what s/rate I could expect and if this was constant and if so might be worth doing trebles or 4 timers. Also from your stats are their any months that perform well and others that perform bad. The reason I ask this is because over the last few weeks its perfomed well and these have been mostly at the weekends. The trouble with me is that when using stats for the whole year you can get a distorted picture, as I find when trying to find something that works year in year out. You could find something that does really well for three months of the year every year but if folowed all year would be a disaster.If this works badly it will be droped, on the other hand it might just do well at the weekends and their is no way I would continue to put up something that did'nt work Monday 8TH May WINDSOR CASSIARA 5.50 BRABAZON 6.20 STOLEN HOURS 6.50 PLUM PUDDING 8.20 AYR SPEEDY SAM 7.10 STELLITE 7.40 BREAKING SHADOWS 8.10 WOLVERHAMPTON [AW] SPIRIT OF CONISTON 3.00 DEIRA 4.00 KEMPTON [AW BANDED] NOT FOR ME OUR SUSIE 2.20 ABBEYGATE 3.20 VENEER 3.50 MISBEHAVIOR 5.20 Surgested stake 2pts win per race Please look at the previous posts by whoneedsrio as this may alter your view of this thread by me. THE % MAN

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

Are the above results with the extra filter Rio suggested?
All the horses selected and the 7 winners from 13 on Sat and the winners on Sunday were horses that were black spot and were 1,2,or 3 last time out and were picked on those findings only. I did not take into account days since last run but some of those selections may have ran within 7 days but I DOUBT IF MANY DID. Hope this as been of some help to you but will carry on as normal for the time being. This post will not be updated every day but will show all weekend selections.I will try to put up as many days results as poss if work permits. I,m sure some months of the year will perform better than others even without the filter but if you wish to follow this idea in any way and it works by all means do so. When FleetFantic started is trailing thread just noticed how well they did if they were black spot and started to look at all of them and have not lost myself since following them although have been backing them in multi bets not as singles. I'm glad at least its thrown up some interest and with a bit of tweaking could end up worth following. THE % MAN
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

All the horses selected and the 7 winners from 13 on Sat and the winners on Sunday were horses that were black spot and were 1,2,or 3 last time out and were picked on those findings only. I did not take into account days since last run but some of those selections may have ran within 7 days but I DOUBT IF MANY DID. Hope this as been of some help to you but will carry on as normal for the time being. This post will not be updated every day but will show all weekend selections.I will try to put up as many days results as poss if work permits. I,m sure some months of the year will perform better than others even without the filter but if you wish to follow this idea in any way and it works by all means do so. When FleetFantic started is trailing thread just noticed how well they did if they were black spot and started to look at all of them and have not lost myself since following them although have been backing them in multi bets not as singles. I'm glad at least its thrown up some interest and with a bit of tweaking could end up worth following. THE % MAN
PS all the results were from TURF RACES ONLY. :ok
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan This is the monthly breakdown for the basic top rated, 1, 2, 3 LTO Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 482 1787 26.97 -70.11 -3.92 April (days 90-119) 210 861 24.39 -63.48 -7.37 May (days 120-150) 391 1590 24.59 -192.86 -12.13 June (days 151-180) 543 2074 26.18 -70.74 -3.41 July (days 181-211) 625 2342 26.69 -160.16 -6.84 August (days 212-242) 541 2138 25.30 -241.20 -11.28 September (days 243-272) 363 1455 24.95 -112.85 -7.76 October (days 273-303) 264 1152 22.92 -58.82 -5.11 November (days 304-333) 139 553 25.14 -53.52 -9.68 December (days 334-365/6) 123 488 25.20 -32.63 -6.69 Basic rules with the aw taken out Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 29 116 25.00 18.09 15.59 April (days 90-119) 183 727 25.17 -38.96 -5.36 May (days 120-150) 366 1481 24.71 -161.70 -10.92 June (days 151-180) 502 1936 25.93 -67.27 -3.47 July (days 181-211) 575 2193 26.22 -161.78 -7.38 August (days 212-242) 531 2077 25.57 -216.50 -10.42 September (days 243-272) 346 1387 24.95 -105.26 -7.59 October (days 273-303) 226 1022 22.11 -94.75 -9.27 November (days 304-333) 41 200 20.50 -34.27 -17.13 December (days 334-365/6) 0 0 Added filters, all in Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 53 167 31.74 -4.25 -2.54 April (days 90-119) 13 42 30.95 -3.13 -7.45 May (days 120-150) 37 104 35.58 44.51 42.80 June (days 151-180) 51 153 33.33 17.66 11.54 July (days 181-211) 64 202 31.68 1.52 0.75 August (days 212-242) 46 161 28.57 22.75 14.13 September (days 243-272) 19 77 24.68 -3.12 -4.05 October (days 273-303) 16 58 27.59 15.63 26.95 November (days 304-333) 14 43 32.56 2.82 6.56 December (days 334-365/6) 9 30 30.00 0.86 2.87 Added filters, no aw Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 3 7 42.86 5.75 82.14 April (days 90-119) 10 35 28.57 -4.39 -12.54 May (days 120-150) 34 97 35.05 45.34 46.74 June (days 151-180) 48 145 33.10 15.49 10.68 July (days 181-211) 59 192 30.73 1.79 0.93 August (days 212-242) 44 156 28.21 17.37 11.13 September (days 243-272) 18 72 25.00 -3.12 -4.33 October (days 273-303) 16 51 31.37 22.63 44.37 November (days 304-333) 2 12 16.67 -4.50 -37.50 December (days 334-365/6) 0 0 Using the basic rules it would seem that theres not much to choose between the months. With the added filters though May to August seems to be the best period. This final table is with all filters for May to August, including any aw racing which gave a very slightly better return than taking the aw out. YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 3 17 17.65 3.88 22.82 1992 1 12 8.33 -4.50 -37.50 1993 5 11 45.45 1.63 14.82 1994 2 8 25.00 6.50 81.25 1995 1 9 11.11 -5.50 -61.11 1996 8 20 40.00 20.00 100.00 1997 9 23 39.13 6.48 28.17 1998 24 56 42.86 20.94 37.39 1999 22 71 30.99 12.04 16.96 2000 27 77 35.06 2.69 3.49 2001 28 96 29.17 11.01 11.47 2002 35 101 34.65 11.83 11.71 2003 33 119 27.73 -0.56 -0.47 ____________________________________________________________ 198 620 31.94 86.44 13.94 Having looked at a preview the tables are a bit hard to read, hope you can follow them ok & it's of some use. Rio.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

This is the monthly breakdown for the basic top rated, 1, 2, 3 LTO Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 482 1787 26.97 -70.11 -3.92 April (days 90-119) 210 861 24.39 -63.48 -7.37 May (days 120-150) 391 1590 24.59 -192.86 -12.13 June (days 151-180) 543 2074 26.18 -70.74 -3.41 July (days 181-211) 625 2342 26.69 -160.16 -6.84 August (days 212-242) 541 2138 25.30 -241.20 -11.28 September (days 243-272) 363 1455 24.95 -112.85 -7.76 October (days 273-303) 264 1152 22.92 -58.82 -5.11 November (days 304-333) 139 553 25.14 -53.52 -9.68 December (days 334-365/6) 123 488 25.20 -32.63 -6.69 Basic rules with the aw taken out Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 29 116 25.00 18.09 15.59 April (days 90-119) 183 727 25.17 -38.96 -5.36 May (days 120-150) 366 1481 24.71 -161.70 -10.92 June (days 151-180) 502 1936 25.93 -67.27 -3.47 July (days 181-211) 575 2193 26.22 -161.78 -7.38 August (days 212-242) 531 2077 25.57 -216.50 -10.42 September (days 243-272) 346 1387 24.95 -105.26 -7.59 October (days 273-303) 226 1022 22.11 -94.75 -9.27 November (days 304-333) 41 200 20.50 -34.27 -17.13 December (days 334-365/6) 0 0 Added filters, all in Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 53 167 31.74 -4.25 -2.54 April (days 90-119) 13 42 30.95 -3.13 -7.45 May (days 120-150) 37 104 35.58 44.51 42.80 June (days 151-180) 51 153 33.33 17.66 11.54 July (days 181-211) 64 202 31.68 1.52 0.75 August (days 212-242) 46 161 28.57 22.75 14.13 September (days 243-272) 19 77 24.68 -3.12 -4.05 October (days 273-303) 16 58 27.59 15.63 26.95 November (days 304-333) 14 43 32.56 2.82 6.56 December (days 334-365/6) 9 30 30.00 0.86 2.87 Added filters, no aw Month CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Jan-Mar (days 1-89) 3 7 42.86 5.75 82.14 April (days 90-119) 10 35 28.57 -4.39 -12.54 May (days 120-150) 34 97 35.05 45.34 46.74 June (days 151-180) 48 145 33.10 15.49 10.68 July (days 181-211) 59 192 30.73 1.79 0.93 August (days 212-242) 44 156 28.21 17.37 11.13 September (days 243-272) 18 72 25.00 -3.12 -4.33 October (days 273-303) 16 51 31.37 22.63 44.37 November (days 304-333) 2 12 16.67 -4.50 -37.50 December (days 334-365/6) 0 0 Using the basic rules it would seem that theres not much to choose between the months. With the added filters though May to August seems to be the best period. This final table is with all filters for May to August, including any aw racing which gave a very slightly better return than taking the aw out. YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1991 3 17 17.65 3.88 22.82 1992 1 12 8.33 -4.50 -37.50 1993 5 11 45.45 1.63 14.82 1994 2 8 25.00 6.50 81.25 1995 1 9 11.11 -5.50 -61.11 1996 8 20 40.00 20.00 100.00 1997 9 23 39.13 6.48 28.17 1998 24 56 42.86 20.94 37.39 1999 22 71 30.99 12.04 16.96 2000 27 77 35.06 2.69 3.49 2001 28 96 29.17 11.01 11.47 2002 35 101 34.65 11.83 11.71 2003 33 119 27.73 -0.56 -0.47 ____________________________________________________________ 198 620 31.94 86.44 13.94 Having looked at a preview the tables are a bit hard to read, hope you can follow them ok & it's of some use. Rio.
Well thanks for that mate it puts a differant slant to the thread and is hear for every body to see and to draw any conclusions they wish to make. The thread will mainly be for weekends and will show a * agaist any that have ran within 7 days. My only concern is banded races and think I will give those a miss even if it shows winners as I hate them.
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan If you had picked the qulifiers for this system at Chester today including jt top you would have had 2 winning lines on the placepot for a 4pt entry with a 17.5pts per line It gave 4 winners and 3 places at the meetiing from 8 selections.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Thurs 11th May CHESTER MARAAHEL 1.50 JUDD STREET 2.20 PAPAL BULL / PRIMARY 2.50 EXPRESS JAIN 3.20 MOMAASHER 4.00 PETER ISLAND 4.35 YARMOUTH DUTY 2.00 FORT CHURCHILL 2.30 NIHAL 3.OO CATBANG 3.35 TAWAASSOL 4.10 HAMILTON OBE BOLD 6.15 MCELDOWNEY 7.55 SOVIET LEGEND 8.55 SURGESTED STAKE 2PTS PER RACE SPLIT IF JTS. SOME OF THESE MAY WELL BE WORTH AN EW BET BUT THATS UP TO YOU.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

Thurs 11th May CHESTER MARAAHEL 1.50 :D JUDD STREET 2.20 :unsure PAPAL BULL :D / PRIMARY 2.50 :eyes EXPRESS JAIN 3.20 :D MOMAASHER 4.00 :unsure PETER ISLAND 4.35 :eyes YARMOUTH DUTY 2.00 :D FORT CHURCHILL 2.30 :eyes NIHAL 3.OO :eyes CATBANG 3.35 :unsure TAWAASSOL 4.10 :unsure HAMILTON OBE BOLD 6.15 :D MCELDOWNEY 7.55 NR SOVIET LEGEND 8.55 :eyes SURGESTED STAKE 2PTS PER RACE SPLIT IF JTS. SOME OF THESE MAY WELL BE WORTH AN EW BET BUT THATS UP TO YOU.
:D WINNERS :unsure PLACED :eyes LOST
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan FRIDAY 12TH MAY CHESTER EASY AIR 1.50 :( IVY CREEK 2.20 :unsure MUBTAKER 2.50 :( DABBERS RIDGE 3.20 :) NOTTINGHAM DRUMMING PARTY 2.00 :unsure ROYAL CITADEL 2.30 :unsure FRISKY TALK 3.00 :unsure SAFQA 4.45 :unsure PRESS EXPRESS 5.15 :unsure MURRUMBIBGEE 5.45 :( LINGFIELD SEE IN THE DARK 2.10 :unsure AIHAITHAM 2.40 :( DAMIKA 3.45 :) HAMILTON JACK RACKMAN 6.15 :unsure OBE BRAVE 6.45 :unsure IBERIAN LIGHT 7.15 :( SHAMILA 7.45 :( DISPOL VELETA 8.15 :( JORDENS ELECT 8.45 :unsure A hell of a lot of qulifiers today and lets hope they show a profit surgested stake 2pts per race 2 WINNERS 11 PLACED 7 LOST

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan This is only a trial at present and was only going to put them up at weekends were I bet them myself and would usually put the longer odd horses together. If you look at the stats in one of the post in this thread by WHONEEDSRIO this might give you some insight of winning when using these selections. % MAN

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Sat 13th May BONUS 2.10L BEFORE YOU GO 2.40L ENCHELON AND INDIAN MAIDEN 4.15L MASSARO PAPE 5.25L PRAIRE SUN 2.15B HANDSOME CROSS 3.15B ARGENTINE 4.20B BRIDGEWATER BOYS 4.55B MINISTER OF STATE 1.25N TARKAMARA1.55N HAIL THE CHIEF 2.25N BALKEN KNIGHT 2.55N TABADUL 3.30N SUPASEUS 4.40N PLUM PUDDING 5.15N Surgested stake 2pts per race split if jts

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

Sat 13th May BONUS 2.10L:( LOST BEFORE YOU GO 2.40L:( LOST ENCHELON :D W8/15 AND INDIAN MAIDEN 4.15L MASSARO PAPE 5.25L :cry PLACED11/10 PRAIRE SUN 2.15B :D W HANDSOME CROSS 3.15B :cry PLACED ARGENTINE 4.20B :( LOST BRIDGEWATER BOYS 4.55B :D W 4/1 MINISTER OF STATE 1.25N :cry PLACED TARKAMARA1.55N :( LOST HAIL THE CHIEF 2.25N :( LOST BALKEN KNIGHT 2.55N :( LOST TABADUL 3.30N :( LOST SUPASEUS 4.40N :D W 9/4 PLUM PUDDING 5.15N :D W 5/2 Surgested stake 2pts per race split if jts
Night meetings AUCTION TIME 6.15T :( LOST PEACE LILY 6.45T :cry PLACED 11/2 BLACKHEATH 8.15T :cry PLACED 20/1 LOCH VERDI 8.45 :cry PLACED CASHEL MEAD 6.30W :cry PLACED 9/4 EASTBOROUGH 7.00W :cry PLACED 3/1 BARODINE7.30 :D W 8/11 GALLANTRY 8.00 [7DAYS LTO] A hell of a lot of horses today so take care if you are considering backing any of them.
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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Sat results 46pts placed return 33PTS p/l -13pts In races were their are a lot of horses that have not ran before or in races were their is more than 1 qualifier, these will not be included from now on.It seems to be throwing up a lot of placed horses and will keep an eye on those in the future.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Mondays selections Turf only REDCAR OUR SHEILA 3.50 :cry PLACED ABBEY CAT 4.20 :cry PLACED CD EUROPE 4.50 :cry PLACED PRINCE PICASSO 5.20 :( LOST WINDSOR BOBOBANA 7.00 :( LOST OGEE 7.30 :) W 11/10 PLEASING 8.30 :( LOST ALL BETS 2PTS WIN This not looking at all promosing at the moment and if no improvement by the end of the month will be droped.

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan Rubbish if you followed this idea on Tuesday Wends selections LOOK AGAIN 1.45Y :cry placed 6/1 LEVERA 2.15Y :) w10/11 ALEXANDROVA 2.45Y :cry placed 8/15 QUITO 3.15Y :cry placed 10/1 CHIEF EDITOR 4.25Y w13/8 AWATUKI 4.55Y :( BRAVE DANE 6.10B :( RIQUEWIHR 8.40B :(

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Re: Pot the black faster than O'Sullivan

Babodana was actually a non-runner on Monday, not a loser. I only remember this as it was my NAP of the day.:wall
Thanks mate This is my time of year when I do some work and when updating my threads can be a bit tired and nackered, so thanks for that. The way it's going at the moment surprised you are even looking. I can't see it lasting much longer, but it does not perform well at all on Mondays and Tuesdays. I will carry on till the end of the month and one never knows it could change for the better. % MAN
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