ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Absolute shocker from Safin, haven't seen him lose his nut that bad for a while. Most of the time when he goes nuts he still wants to play but there he had to win each point with his first shot:eyes :eyes. At least Portas came through, so that's 3/1 and +26.7pts for the week.

Everything says that Massu should bounce all over Gimelstob, but I'm going to go Gimelstob's way. Massu has played a lot of tennis lately, and Gimelstob has been resting as of late. @ 5+ for Gimelstob to win this, I'll take the bait. If Gimelstob can get one set off of Massu, I think he has a chance. Kohlschreiber over Hernych seems like a sound bet Portas and Davy would be my other picks. Portas suprised me with his play last week, and I'd back him to continue that, Davy has a chance against Safin. I see that match as 50/50 and in doing so, backing the dog. No actual money on my end, warming up for the French.

Not a bad day:loon :loon :loon :loon :loon Great stuff robby:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Everything says that Massu should bounce all over Gimelstob' date=' but I'm going to go Gimelstob's way. Massu has played a lot of tennis lately, and Gimelstob has been resting as of late. @ 5+ for Gimelstob to win this, I'll take the bait. If Gimelstob can get one set off of Massu, I think he has a chance.:loon :ok[i']Jumped to 7.05 on betfair Kohlschreiber over Hernych seems like a sound bet:ok Sweated it after that first set romp 1.7ish Portas and Davy would be my other picks.:ok Great fightback from Portie (2.8 on Centrebet), wish Davy woulda lost so you guys would been in! Portas suprised me with his play last week, and I'd back him to continue that, Davy has a chance against Safin. I see that match as 50/50 and in doing so, backing the dog. No actual money on my end, warming up for the French.

:moonbounce!:moon It's not often I get too excited when there isn't much money involved, but this week in tennis has got to be one of the best I've been apart of in a while. My goal was to start using some of these smaller tournies to start paying attention to form before the French, that way there wasn't any information overload when the French was here. So it's 1 dolla bets for w/l records and nothing else. Only posting thoughts here because I may as well since I'm researching them anyways. Though I wouldn't have guessed hitting a 7, 5, 3 and a couple 2.5+ and being 6-1. Couple of dogs I like tomorrow : Hidalgo (3.1) and Peya (2.35). Gremelmeyr is only short because he beat Coria. But... he didn't beat Coria, Coria beat Coria. All Gremelmeyr had to do was serve. They both have a similar history and form, but Peya has better value imo. Both Rochus and Hidalgo had easy first round opponents, but Rochus isn't what you'd call a clay courter and Hidalgo hasn't exactly been singing a victory chant lately. However, he's been on the clay the entire year beating Almagro, Gaudio, Montanes, and Coria. Rochus may have his hands full.

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Great stuff robby:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy

Cheers! sad that it takes 48 hours to level me on all of the bad tips I've posted on this forum thus far:\ Hopefully the newbie jinx is off and we can start makin' some money. May decide to start a thread in the S&S sub forum to look into finding a better way to find an outright, or e/w. Only have a few thousand tournaments to back test against :lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Cheers! sad that it takes 48 hours to level me on all of the bad tips I've posted on this forum thus far:\ Hopefully the newbie jinx is off and we can start makin' some money.

Have to say mate I never noticed them:$ :$ ...so I think you're up and kicking ass:ok

May decide to start a thread in the S&S sub forum to look into finding a better way to find an outright, or e/w. Only have a few thousand tournaments to back test against :lol

Don't do it, outrights are awful:wall :wall :wall :wall

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Munich
Selection	GREUL v Melzer
Strength	10/10
Date	04/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.68 (Back)
Reasoning	Really don't think Melzer should be such a favourite here. Greul came through a very tough one against Pashanski but he did come through, and at home he could get a bit inspired. I made the case for him and his good form in the first round and still think it applies here. Melzer looks very overrated, and he has a decent record on clay, but nothing better than decent. He did well in Houston but as I said at the time he loves the tournament there and on the American clay. He went out to an out of form Vanek last week and I don't fancy him here. He beat an outs of sorts Youzhny in the first round but hell even Coria beat him in Monte Carlo!!! I think this is pretty close to a 50/50 and should be played at these odds.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Estoril
Selection	TURSUNOV 2-0 v Gil
Strength	10/10
Date	04/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	To be honest, I just like the price and fancy taking a risk! Don't know too much about Gil, but he had a massive struggle against lucky loser Luque who is ranked 596 and with Gil ranked 246, I think that show his level. Tursunov hasn't had much success in the first round, but he still has a good fundermental game and can get it done on occasion. In the first round he beat another Portugese guy Elias 6-2 6-1 which is alright and should give him a bit of confidence. People are saying it's playing pretty quick here in Estoril, which will certainly help Tursunov. The only thing Gil has in his favour is being at home, and I don't think that's enough to cause this price. Certainly worth a risk as most places go 1.66.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Estoril
Selection	GARCIA-LOPEZ v Berlocq
Strength	10/10
Date	04/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	Garcia-Lopez is very frustrating, the guy has a lot of talent and game, but he never really seems to get it going. Perfect example against Azzaro in the first round, he was in total control but managed to drop the second set and nearly the match. However, I think that's heavily facotred into the price, and against a dreadful opponent he should get it done. Berlocq is awful this year, since the end of January going 1-8 with the only win being against Donald Young! In those 8 matches he had to retire twice and never won a set - he's having serious problems this year. He beat lucky loser Perez 6-0 6-1 but it's clear he never showed up so don't read into that too much. I think Garcia has a far suprior game and should be far too strong in this one - a nice, solid favourite.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Some good write-ups there folks. You've talked me into a short-priced treble of Garcia-Lopez, Moya and Tursunov. Pays 2.10. Speaking of Tursunov...Have read of his blog on the ATP site if you haven't already. Some of it is hilarious.

[edtkh]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May It was a bit of a joke in the Haas-Karlovic debacle - quite simply, Haas didn't deserve to win given the way he played and in truth, it was simply a case of him deserving to lose more than Karlovic to win. That said, well done to those who backed the Croat... :clap 20pts LAY Melzer 2-0 (2.42 @ Betfair) Quite simply, Greul has really come on lately(and I don't mean just his win over Coria) as he has chalked up a run of pretty impressive results that clearly belie his ranking. Melzer is a decent player, but nothing more - and with Greul buoyed by home support and the fact he has just won an ATP event on clay lately, you've got to fancy him to at least take a set of Melzer, if not win it. ;) 20pts Garcia-Lopez-Karlovic (2.08 @ Ladbrokes) No disrespect, but Bercloq has really been awful and is simply here as a result of the luck he has enjoyed with regards to the draw(had Robredo not pulled out, he'd have been smacked in the first round). While Garcia-Lopez is no world beater, he has still got enough in him to ease past Bercloq IMO. On the back of what I saw against Haas, I can't see Phau troubling the Croat too much here as his serves are essentially unbreakable for the German. All I need is for Karlovic to maintain the level of performance he demonstrated against Haas...:hope Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 60.00pts Profit/Loss : -40.00pts

[christiano]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Fyrstenberg/Matkowski - Safin/Tursunov
Selection	Fyrstenberg/Matkowski
Strength	10/10
Date	04/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 1.40 (Back)
Reasoning	Fyrstenberg/Matkowski are in the great form at the moment.They are playing better and better and they are climbing in the rankings.Safin/tursunov are nothing special in doubles.Tursunov has his single match against Gil earlier this day so he will be a bit tired for sure.Earlier this morning odds for Polish pair were just crazy 1.75 in BAW.I can see only one result here as Fyrstenberg/Matkowski are one of the favourites to win this tournament.

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ivanovic - Schnyder
Selection	Schnyder
Strength	10/10
Date	04/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.46 (Back)
Reasoning	Ivanovic was nothing special in her first match against poor Domachowska.She was just better by one break in each set.Schnyder has advantage here as they are playing on clay and she really likes this kind of courts.Schnyder made it to the final in Charleston where she losed against Petrova in 3 sets.So she seems to be in pretty good form.Ivanovic is not convincing me with her form at the moment so I will back Patty :)

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May re: Ivanovic - Schnyder Good call, just to add a couple of stats to the list. They've played against each other 4 times, Patty has yet to drop a set. (6-1, 6-2), (6-3, 6-2), (6-2, 6-1), (7-5, 6-2) I'm on this as well, though you've got to wonder.... with a H2H this one sided, why is the price 1.40+?

[happydaysarehereagain]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May I know this is a different thread but over in warsaw the J&S Cup, some silly bets going round. My sweet Kuznetsova is nearly there with a nice £57 profit for today: Banker really, some interesting match ups coming up too with Venus the penis Williams vs Hingis.....

. Kuznetsova	1.11		£250.00
	Ref: 2205664747 Bet matched: 10:45 04-May-06
	S. Kuznetsova	1.13		£250.00

[happydaysarehereagain]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Good girl, not bad return for 2 clicks of a mouse.....

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

It was a bit of a joke in the Haas-Karlovic debacle - quite simply, Haas didn't deserve to win given the way he played and in truth, it was simply a case of him deserving to lose more than Karlovic to win. That said, well done to those who backed the Croat... :clap

Well, I'd debate this, but the match is done and gone, so I'll leave well enough alone. On the GGL v Berlocq match, I think I'm going to play a couple of points in the set market. 2-1 for each of them (4 for GGL and 6.6 for Berlocq). Neither of these players have done anything much as of late, and both can be inspired by the idea that the seeds are out of it. I'll get to the other markets in a little while.

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Well, as far as the other matches. I'm still backing Peya, though I'm not as confident. 1.40ish isn't worth the price when banking on Ivo's serve. So I'm out of that one. Still like Hidalgo and I'll probably leave the Estroil 2nd round alone. Could be an upset in there, but the favorites shouldn't have too many issues.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Can't believe Greul lost that, absolute shocker towards the end:sad

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Shocker from me today. Only Garcia coming through, so that's 4/3 and +11.1pts for the week. Still up for the week, which is OK. Hopefully some better stuff tomorrow:hope :ok

[happydaysarehereagain]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May GARCIA-LOPEZ V Berlocq WIN

MULLER v Lapentti WIN

MOYA v Marcaccio (BANKER) WIN

NALBANDIAN v Chardy (BANKER 2) WIN

KUZNETSOVA v Pironkova WIN (Different Tournament post)

VENUS THE PENIS v Hingis WIN((Different Tournament post)

KARLOVIC v Phau WIN (Got him down to win tournament, love this guy as brought me from £1300 down to £300 up)

TURSUNOV v Gil LOSE

(Thanks for not turning up TURDunoB) Wouldve had 100% for the first time when picking double figures.

[happydaysarehereagain]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May

Tennis / Nalbandian v Chardy : Match Odds 04-May-06 17:30 76.20 Tennis / Moya v Marcaccio : Match Odds 04-May-06 16:00 2.24 Tennis / Gil v Tursunov : Match Odds 04-May-06 14:00 -15.00 Tennis / Gremelmayr v Peya : Match Odds 04-May-06 13:15 2.00 Tennis / Karlovic v Phau : Match Odds 04-May-06 13:00 12.57 Tennis / Garcia L v Berlocq : Match Odds 04-May-06 12:15 13.00 Tennis / Greul v Melzer : Match Odds 04-May-06 11:00 1.08 Tennis / Second Round Matches : Pironkova v Kuznetsov 04-May-06 10:00 57.15 Tennis / Second Round Matches : Williams v Hingis 04-May-06 10:00 28.25 Tennis / Second Round Matches : Ivanovic v Schnyder 04-May-06 10:00 4.95

Profit and Loss is shown net of commission. All times are UKT ? unless otherwise stated.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May ffs Tursunov. Serves me right though for not researching it properly. I wouldn't have backed him if I'd realised that the guy he'd beaten in the first round was 15 year old kid.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Sorry about the shit write ups, I'm knackered:zzz

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Estoril
Selection	Portas v Gimelstob: Match to go to 3 sets
Strength	10/10
Date	05/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.31 (Back)
Reasoning	This is achieved by backing Gimelstob 2-1 @ 5.5 and Portas 2-1 @ 4.0 with appropriate staking. After the last round, these were two I wanted to oppose, then I saw they're playing each other! Portas has been my boy so far this tournament, however, he was lucky against Monfils a bit, and I have stamina concerns for the old man coming into this one. Also Gimelstob has been so lucky, with both Dlouhy and Massu falling away against him. However, I think he's playing a little better than usual on clay, and has a shot in this one - he'll certainly fight, and as Karlovic has shown recently on clay, a big serve can get it done. Portas is certainly the favourite, but I don't think he should be as short as he is, but I can't back Gimelstob on clay! So this looks like a decent option - I can certainly see the scenario of Portas taking the first set then struggling and letting Gimelstob back into it. About 50/50 to go to 3 sets IMO.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Munich
Selection	VLIEGEN v Kohlschreiber
Strength	10/10
Date	05/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 1.66 (Back)
Reasoning	I've been pretty impressed with Vliegen lately, he's picked up some decent results and looks to be hitting the ball well. Think he's a superior player to Kohl in most areas and the only thing in the Germans favour is being at home. Don't think that will be enough here as Vliegen has already shown some good fight in this tournament and should fancy his chances tomorrow. Kohl is much better suited to the hard courts which could be exposed. He's 10-10 on clay in the past 12 months compared to Vliegens 17-10. Solid favourite here IMO.

[happydaysarehereagain]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Lazy day today, sun shining and had good day yesterday so going to relax and do some in play betting rather than outrights as got some hockey and rugby to keep tabs on too. Have a good one everyone. Thanks City for last night, icing on the cake!!

Sport	Tennis
Event	Warsaw J&S Cup WILLIAMS v Kuznetso
Selection	Venus Williams WIN
Strength	10/10
Date	05/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 3.10 (Back)
Reasoning	1:Venus has got out of the mindset of "I can turn up and beat anyone" and proved it by beating Hingis yesterday despite having to dig deep and come back from set and games down. 2:Her play shows to me that she wants to win again as her current ranking belies her true talent as not played much this year. 3:Kuznetso is good, but not as experianced as Venus so the odds are in Venus favour as the under dog. 4:Venus is surgically enhanced and is a terminator under that skin....plus she has a penis. Nuff said.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Good luck with that happy, After seeing Venus yesterday, I really wanted to back Kuznetsova; Venus was nearly dead on the court, and certainly feeling the effects of not having played for a lond time. However, very surprised when I saw the odds for the match:eek :eek. Thought Kuznetsiva would have been around 1.66 rather than the 1.50 on Betfair (most bookies go 1.33 or 1.36). Venus definately worth a shot for trading, and has a decent shot at taking it. Note: Kuznetsova actually drifting a bit on Betfair, which is think is deserved.

[robby]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Well, GGL v Berlocq went into three sets and my two dogs bombed, so I'm sittin' on 7-3. Portas v Gimelstob is a match I wouldn't normally bet on. You're aware that they played doubles together in the first round? I tend to dodge these because ... you never know. However, with all of the public pace on Portas, I'll favor Gimelstob. Gimelstob actually hasn't played that bad the past month or so. SF, QF and his only clay court match was against Calleri in round of 56. 90% of the tour would lose in the same fashion. I personally don't think that once we're in the QF the whole 'not a clay courter' holds water. First of all he's actually played a couple of matches so something is right. Second this week more than most proves the point that clay or not a surface can favor someone who doesn't play on it all of the time. There's a couple of others in Estoril and a couple in BMW Open that you wouldn't back as clay players, but they're in the QF. Portas didn't look good at all in the last match, Gimel looked pretty bad in the first set, grew in the second, and held solid in the third against Massu. I'll take Gimel, level stakes on 2-0 (6.4 - betfair) and 2-1 (6.2 - betfair) to return 4, a buck over the 3ish offered for the head to head.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Good luck robby, hope you hit that 2-1:D :ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Munich
Selection	KARLOVIC v Melzer
Strength	10/10
Date	05/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Still not convinved by Melzer this week, Gruel should have had him but chucked it away. He's been awful all year apart from the run in Houston and I don't fancy him in this one. Also concerns over his fitness this week make him opposable. Karlovic, well, we all know what he's going to do. He's been getting results the past couple of weeks and so long as he serves OK he has a good chance. Melzer leads H2H 2-0 both on faster surfaces but they were both a while ago and I'm willing to overlook them.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May I'd like to retract this comment about Gimelstob

However, I think he's playing a little better than usual on clay, and has a shot in this one - he'll certainly fight

:eyes :eyes

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May God another shit day. Only Vliegen coming through. Now -2.3pts for the week:lol :lol. Thank god there's F1 this weekend:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Munich
Selection	O ROCHUS v Melzer
Strength	10/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	OK, so I'm still opposing Melzer. Basically the same as before, I don't think he's playing well. Karlovic played a poor tiebreak today and then decided his week was finished so I don't want to read too much into that win. Rochus has been pretty good this week, and came through against inspired home boy Gremelmayr in the last round. He's still to drop a set in this tournament and looks very motivated. H2H is 3-2 to Melzer but two of those wins have came in Austria where he plays very well, so I think that's OK for Rochus. Solid favourite.

Also might make plays on Davydenko and Vliegen, but will wait to see what the prices are in the morning;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Munich
Selection	VLIEGEN v Nieminen
Strength	10/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.61 (Back)
Reasoning	I was impressed with what I saw from Vliegen against Kohl; the German started on fire but Vliegen stayed tough and worked his way into the match before taking control. Not impressed with Nieminen here, he struggled past Pavel and Waske before dropping a set to Vik which isn't good. Vliegen beat Nieminen in Monte Carlo a couple of weeks ago in a tight match and I think he's a decent price to get another victory.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May Vliegen gets it done 6-1 6-2:eek :ok