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MLB - Back both teams

WorkingForTheEnemy
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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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This is something I thought about last year and unless my figures are flawed, could be a good source of profit. The strikerate will need to be exceptionally high as the returns are low yield but we'll run it and see how we go. The idea is to back both teams in the game. Madness you say, wellyes if we were to back them both straight. What we're going to do though is back the underdog to win straight and the fav to win on the handicap. More often or not, doing this you'll be able to get over evens on both bets. With America's renowned hatred of draws in their sports, this only leaves the fav's winning by 1 run as a losing bet. Example: Mon Night TB @ BAL TB to win - 11.16pts @ 2.1 BAL(-1.5) to win - 8.84pts @ 2.65 (Paddy Power) Total stake = 20pts Possible results: TB win - Returns: 23.44pts Profit: 3.44pts BAL win by 1 - Returns: 0 Profit: -20pts BAL win by 2+ - Returns: 23.43pts Profit: 3.43pts As you can see, with the right staking you can make the same profit from any result, barring the 1 run win by the fav. Now this could probably be done on a vast majority of matches but as you can see by the example above, 1 bad selection can easily wipe out 6 or 7 wins, so Im going to use selections that offer as high a return as possible , reducing the amount of wins needed to recover a loss. Ill also try and filter out games that potentially may be tight affairs. This hasnt been tested live, only in theory. As long as a good enough strikerate can be maintained though, we should see a nice slow profit build up.:hope Starting Bank will be 1000pts and bets will be made with a combined stake of 20pts. Any comments welcome, especially if anyone can see a huge flaw that I may have overseen.

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slapdash

slapdash

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Re: MLB - Back both teams My first thought on seeing systems like this, where you place two different types of bet (call them Type A and Type B) is always: Expected profit = Expected profit from Type A + Expected profit from Type B. So if the system as a whole is going to be profitable, then at least one of the individual types of bet has to be profitable, and my second thought is "Which one?" Anyway, it's presumably not too difficult to get some statistics for how often the favourite wins by one run. I'd certainly try to find this before risking any cash on the system, as it will give you at least some idea of how much you need to win from each successful bet for the system to be profitable. By the way, good luck for a profitable season!

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Mr Intensity

Mr Intensity

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Re: MLB - Back both teams Hi WFTE, I saw someone doing this on an American forum last season with a lot of success. But they only did it when the total was 11 or higher. Basic theory being that with more runs likely, the chnce of the fav winning by one dimisnishes. Good luck:ok

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slapdash

slapdash

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Re: MLB - Back both teams

Anyway, it's presumably not too difficult to get some statistics for how often the favourite wins by one run. I'd certainly try to find this before risking any cash on the system, as it will give you at least some idea of how much you need to win from each successful bet for the system to be profitable.
Did a bit of Googling, and although I didn't find any precise statistics, one site I found said that about 30% of games are decided by one run, of which 60% are won by the favourite. So if those figures are correct, then if you carried out this strategy on all games, you would lose 18% of the time, and would have to average about 4.4 points profit on the successful games to break even. Looking at the first five games listed on Betbrain, and taking the best odds listed there, the profits would be 4.5, 3.4, 4.2, 2.6 and 2.6 points.
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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: MLB - Back both teams Thanks Slapdash. Even though the figures dont quite match Im going to run with it anyway on paper. Ive decided that only bets that will produce a 15%+ profit will qualify. It may be the case that these matchs distort the figures(maybe in our advantage, maybe against). I just want to give a warning that this is untested in realtime and advise anyone wishing to follow not to invest too heavily.

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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: MLB - Back both teams All bets will be stated as UK starting time and date. Bet 1 Mon 3/4/06 - 6.10pm NYM @ WAS WAS to win, 9.85pts @ 2.45 NYM(-1.5) to win, 10.15pts @ 2.38 (B365/Lads) Bet 2 Mon 3/4/06 - 7.05pm PIT @ MIL PIT to win, 11.40pts @ 2.15 MIL(-1.5) to win, 8.60pts @ 2.85 (Pinnacle/Pinnacle) Bet 3 Mon 3/4/06 - 8.05pm TB @ BAL TB to win, 11.04pts @ 2.15 BAL(-1.5) to win, 8.96pts @ 2.65 (B365/P.Power) Bet 4 Tue 4/4/06 - 00.05am FLA @ HOU FLA to win, 9.55pts @ 2.57 HOU(-1.5) to win, 10.45pts @ 2.35 (Sporting Odds/Pinnacle) Bet 5 Tue 4/4/06 - 00.05am SF @ SD SF to win, 11.12pts @ 2.23 SD(-1.5) to win, 8.88pts @ 2.79 (Sporting Odds/Pinnacle) Total stake: 100pts

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slapdash

slapdash

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Re: MLB - Back both teams It might be worth your while keeping a record of the profit available for each game. I know you could work this out again from the odds, but if you're calculating it anyway to decide whether the game qualifies, then it will save you from doing the calculation again if you want to adjust the qualification requirements at a later stage. It might also be worth recording the totals line, as per Mr. I's comment. It makes sense that the higher the expected total, the smaller the chance of a one run win for the favourites, although this is probably reflected to some extent in the odds. Also, slightly off-topic, but you may want to check out the odds available at Mansion exchange. On other US sports they often have better odds than the best available from a conventional bookie, and they've just changed their commission terms so you pay zero commission if you match a bet and 1% if you make an offer that is matched later (used to be the other way round). For about half of the bets you've posted above, and for your bet in your other thread, they have better odds, sometimes quite significantly (e.g., SD -1.5 at 2.90 compared to the 2.79 you took). Of course, the odds may have changed since you posted.

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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: MLB - Back both teams Not the most encouraging of starts. BET 1 WAS 2 NYM 3 Returns: 0pts BET 2 PIT 2 MIL 5 Returns: 24.51pts BET 3 TB 6 BAL 9 Returns: 23.74pts BET 4 FLA 0 HOU 1 Returns: 0pts BET 5 SF 1 SD 6 Returns: 24.78pts Total Returns Today:73.03pts Todays Profit:-26.97pts UPDATE Bets:5 Wins:3 Strikerate:60% Returns:73.03pts Profit:-26.97pts Yield:-26.97% New Bank:973.03pts

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WorkingForTheEnemy

WorkingForTheEnemy

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Re: MLB - Back both teams This may be a little tougher than expected as the odds sites dont seem to have all matches up early and I work evenings. Ill just have to do my best with what I can. Bet 6 Tues 4/4/06 - 7.05pm CLE @ CWS CLE to win, 10.20pts @ 2.40 CWS(-1.5) to win, 9.80pts @ 2.5 (S.James/S.James) Bet 7 Weds 5/4/06 - 01.05am FLA @ HOU FLA to win, 7.68pts @ 3.05 HOU(-1.5) to win, 12.32pts @ 1.90 (Sporting Odds/S.James) Bet 8 Weds 5/4/06 - 01.05am PIT @ MIL PIT to win, 9.65pts @ 2.52 MIL(-1.5) to win, 10.35pts @ 2.35 (Sporting Odds/B365) Total stake: 60pts

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