Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15

[Jonesy Knows]

Who is going to win? post your fancy and some reasoning behind your selection and let's see if we can pick the winner? I have put the 10 horses at the top of the market in the poll, however if you fancy a horse at bigger odds let us know which one, and why?

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 Here is the result of the past 2 runnings!

NEWBURY (06 Mar 2004) Good

3:30 Vodafone Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Class B) (class 2) (5yo+) [off 3:32] £61,201.60, £23,214.40, £11,607.20, £5,276.00, £2,638.00, £1,582.80 16 fences 2m4f

		Comments In Running							OR	TS	RPR
1		Isio (FR)		N J Henderson	8	11-4	B J Geraghty		T D Easterby	9	10-8	D O´Meara(3)		M C Pipe	9	10-13	J E Moore(3)		H D Daly	8	11-8	M Bradburne		N J Gifford	7	10-7 101	Mr D H Dunsdon(3)		J W Mullins	9	10-0 2	B Fenton		Miss Venetia Williams	6	9-9 4	S Thomas(5)		P J Hobbs	8	10-12	J Culloty		C Roche	9	10-9	T J Murphy		R H Alner	9	9-11 7	R Walford(3)		P F Nicholls	9	10-2	R Walsh		M C Pipe	11	9-11 v	J P Elliott(5)		P F Nicholls	7	11-12	R Thornton		T P Tate	8	10-3 2	J M Maguire		M C Pipe	11	11-0	A P McCoy
15 ran TIME 4m 58.30s (slow by 7.30s) TOTAL SP 119% NON RUNNER: Clan Royal (FR) 1st OWNER: Sir Peter & Lady Gibbings BRED: Jean-Francois Bedu And Vcte Roger De Soultrait TRAINER: N J Henderson 2nd OWNER: D F Sills 3rd OWNER: The Macca & Growler Partnership TOTE TRIFECTA Part won. Pool of £3,485.90 - 0.50 winning tickets. WIN £5.90 PL £2.50, £4.80, £6.30; Ex £116.30; CSF £113.91; TRICAST £2539.30Part won. Pool of £3,485.90 - 0.50 winning tickets. ANALYSIS: With prize-money better than that offered in any of the Cheltenham handicaps this was understandably a really competitive affair, so all credit to Victor Chandler winner ISIO, who paid Azertyuiop (who gave him 19lb at Ascot) a direct compliment in defying a 6lb higher mark. The big unknown for him here was the longer trip, but he got it well and, having been up there all the way, quickened to the front going to the second-last and won convincingly. He was quoted afterwards for both the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Grand Annual, but Nicky Henderson ruled both out. The Cathcart might be a possibility, but connections are more likely to wait for Aintree. Turgeonev was racing from a mark 6lb higher than his previous highest winning mark and excelled himself, racing prominently all the way and keeping on. He is entered at Cheltenham, but the track doesn't really suit him and he too could wait for Aintree. Seebald was under strong pressure turning into the straight but challenged for the lead at the fourth-last. He hit the second-last quite hard but, as ever, gave his all. However, despite having already been dropped 12lb, he still doesn't look like an imminent winner. Hand Inn Hand hit the first, but seemed to jump soundly otherwise until a mistake at the cross fence, five out, when just creeping into contention. He could have done without that, but he was racing from 159 here, having been beaten off 145 in a handicap two starts previously, and his conditions race win at Ascot could well flatter him. Joly Bey, back over fences after his impressive hurdles win and carrying considerable overweight, looked to be going well straightening for home but did not find as much as looked likely and was not knocked about. The Kim Muir is reportedly his target, and he will be suited by the stiffer test and slower opposition. The novice See You Sometime ran another big race for one so inexperienced and will have no trouble winning races when his sights are lowered. Kelrev made mistakes in the home straight and once again didn't get home after travelling well. Farmer Jack, up in trip, had his chance entering the straight but weakened and is better at 2m. Risk Accessor was tightened up early on and did well to stay on his feet after a horrendous mistake at the first down the far side. That put paid to any chance, but he will still have possibilities at Cheltenham again. Exit Swinger, who was reportedly never travelling according to Ruby Walsh, was never competitive in this tougher company and neither Cyfor Malta nor Wahiba Sands gave their supporters much hope.

NEWBURY (05 Mar 2005) Good To Soft

3:15 Vodafone Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Class A) (Listed Race) (class 1) (5yo+) [off 3:21] £58,000.00, £22,000.00, £11,000.00, £5,000.00, £2,500.00, £1,500.00 16 fences 2m4f

		Comments In Running							OR	TS	RPR
1		Supreme Prince (IRE)		P J Hobbs	8	10-12	P Flynn		M C Pipe	10	10-4 v	T J Malone(5)		N J Henderson	10	10-8	M A Fitzgerald		Jonjo O´Neill	10	10-5	J Culloty		H D Daly	9	11-5	M Bradburne		P F Nicholls	11	10-13	Christian Williams		M C Pipe	11	11-9	T J Murphy		N J Henderson	10	10-3	A Tinkler		P F Nicholls	6	10-8	R Walsh		P R Webber	9	10-10	T Doyle		T D Easterby	10	11-5	D O´Meara		N A Twiston-Davies	8	10-7	C Llewellyn		Jonjo O´Neill	10	11-1	R Johnson		M C Pipe	10	11-1 t	T Scudamore		F Doumen	12	11-12 b	A P McCoy
15 ran TIME 4m 59.80s (slow by 8.80s) TOTAL SP 123% NON RUNNERS: Amberleigh House (IRE) ,Avalanche (FR) ,Marked Man (IRE) 1st OWNER: Mrs Karola Vann BRED: R Kidd TRAINER: P J Hobbs 2nd OWNER: B A Kilpatrick 3rd OWNER: Mrs E Roberts & Nick Roberts TOTE TRIFECTA Part won. Pool £3,935.84 - 0.10 winning units. WIN £8.90 PL £3.30, £8.70, £2.30; Ex £205.30; CSF £174.63; TRICAST £1045.76Part won. Pool £3,935.84 - 0.10 winning units. ANALYSIS: A red-hot handicap, featuring around half a dozen who like to force the pace. Surprisingly, for a race of this nature, they finished in a heap, the first ten being covered by only eight lengths or so. SUPREME PRINCE had been let down by his jumping since his good win over the course and distance in November, and reports that he had schooled moderately at the start of the week did not augur well. However, he was always holding his prominent place, and he didn't make any serious mistakes. Having taken a narrow lead at the cross fence, he appeared to have shaken off his closest pursuers going to the second-last and was three lengths clear at the final fence. Getting away well from the last, he looked set to win convincingly, but halfway up the run-in his stride started to shorten, just as Horus was getting into top gear. He found a bit more when Horus got to his quarters, but still makes limited appeal under a 6lb penalty in the Mildmay of Flete, especially as he has not shone at Cheltenham so far. Horus dropped back with a bad blunder at the second down the far side but closed to join the chasing group rounding the turn. He stayed on strongly on the run-in, momentarily looking as if he might win, and the visor that was back on here was clearly a success as this was a cracking effort over a trip that is on the sharp side for him. He is in all of the obvious handicaps at Cheltenham. Chauvinist, making his handicap debut after a good novice win, was always up there and ran right up to form. Nicky Henderson is keen to run him over three miles, but his only Cheltenham entry is in the Grand Annual. He looks as if he will be every bit as good a handicapper over fences as he was over hurdles. Simply Gifted ran well in fourth, keeping on, and this was encouraging considering the problems his stable has had. Last year's fourth Hand Inn Hand had been given a chance by the handicapper, who dropped him 7lb after Lingfield, and he is becoming frustrating. He was possibly a bit reluctant to jump off, but was soon going well enough, held up as usual. He was in the battle for second on the run-in, but was just run out of the places. Mouseski was far from disgraced considering he was up in grade and none too fluent three out. It Takes Time, hiked a massive 13lb for Lingfield, also ran as well as he was entitled to, possibly even showing improved form again. Scots Grey, off the track for 111 days, never looked like winning but wasn't disgraced, and the same goes for Le Duc, although he has never fulfilled the potential of last year's Arkle third. The inexperienced but highly progressive favourite Buckby Lane got to the front at the fifth but had been joined by the winner when he hit the cross fence, five out, hard. He stayed in contention and was still in with a chance of a place at the last, but he had no more to give and faded into tenth, albeit not beaten far. This was probably not a bad run on paper. There was big gap to last year's second Turgeonev, who made a mistake at the cross fence and another two out. This race was never going to play to Whereareyounow's strengths, and he was always going to struggle to hold on to his lead. He has a variety of engagements at the Festival, and the cross-country race might suit him best. First Gold's target is the Grand National, and he would not have been suited by either the trip or the number of front-runners in opposition here. While it would be impossible to glean much encouragement from this, he can be excused. Venn Ottery, making his debut for Martin Pipe and having his first race since a wind operation, gave himself no chance by pulling much too hard, despite being equipped with a variety of aids. He has no chance of staying either the Gold Cup or Grand National distance and will be suited by a return to two miles. Knife Edge didn't jump well and lost touch starting down the far side.[GD]

[Carl]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 I'll go for Pipe to win this with WINDSOR BOY (7lb) claimer on board.

Windsor Boy (IRE) 7-4fav (11-8) Tracked leaders, led after 3 out, clear approaching last, kept on well, won at Fakenham 2m 5f hcp chs 0-130 (3) gd in Jan beating Hakim (11-12) by 6l, 8 ran.

[bowles10]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 already posted last night in my thread 1st bet for Saturday is to take advantage of the price on CLAYMORE in the 3.15 at Newbury. The trainer has made no secret of saying the horse has been laid out for this event instead of going to Cheltenham, which speaks volumes for the fact that Newbury suits the horse far better than the undulating Cheltenham track. Was lais out last year also but missed the race with a setback & connections will be keen to make amends. The distance is perfect for a horse which has won over 2m, 2m 2f, 2m 4f & 2m 6f in its career. Won LTO at Wetherby off a strong pace which it will get in this competitive race tomorrow. The jockey knows the horse well now also. A very decent EW punt. 5pts ew @ 10/1 Paddy Power

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 Unoriginal I know! however I go with the Bowles10 as Claymore has been laid out for this race! his trainer Oliver Sherwood has openly said Claymore needs a flat track like Newbury or Aintree to show his best! Cornish Sett I feel is a false favourite because of the Nicholls / Walsh factor, however Nicholls has openly said that they are trying the blinkers on it more in hope than anything else! this horse always hits the goalpost and to be honest I would go as to say it's fairly quirky and in a finish will not give it's all. Add to this fact that Ruby Walsh is returning from injury and with Cheltenham just 2 weeks away, I feel Ruby won't be giving his mounts today, the full treatment as he will want to be spot on for Cheltenham and any slight setback for him could jeopardise his chances to ride at Cheltenham, The Holy Grail of NH race meetings! Martin Pipe sends out 5 for this race and I can't see any of them being able to bustle up Claymore and he maybe playing for places and more prize money in order to cut back Nicholls championship lead - as Pipe always finds safety in numbers! So CLAYMORE for me! Regards,

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 i'm with Windsor Boy as said in my thread :)

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 I think Horus has dropped to a dangerously low mark and he has to be respected after claiming second in this race last year on a 9 pound higher mark. Form has not been the best since, but he put in a much improved effort last time out and has to be considered at a great 16/1 price. I have also heard some talk about Europa being too high in the handicap to win, which is utter garbage. He is a brilliant performer on his day and he has put up some wonderful displays in his last three races, finishing second in two of them, in very high quality fields. It would be plain ignorant to rule him out out 12/1.

[gilly2411]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 I'm going to be highly unoriginal and opt for the trusted Nicholls/Walsh pairing and say that Cornish Sett will just take the edge. The main danger will probably come from Windsor Boy and I may have a small saver on him.

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 Hurrah! Good old Horus won me £55, but I seriously thought he got back up to pip Cornish Sett to the post. Quite an irritating turn of events really.

[gilly2411]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 I could say the same about Horus :loon I had £12.50 e/w on Cornish Sett @ 10/1 yesterday and thought I was quids in when he was charging up the finishing straight only to be clawed back. Still, I'm happy enough with the profit I made :ok

[mattmcandrew]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15

I could say the same about Horus :loon I had £12.50 e/w on Cornish Sett @ 10/1 yesterday and thought I was quids in when he was charging up the finishing straight only to be clawed back. Still' date=' I'm happy enough with the profit I made :ok[/quote'] Gooooooood stuff :). Happiness all round.

[Jonesy Knows]

Re: Vodafone Gold Cup H'cap Chase Newbury 3.15 :clap :clap :clap we are not worthy matt! - well done matey!!!

Hurrah! Good old Horus won me £55' date=' but I seriously thought he got back up to pip Cornish Sett to the post. Quite an irritating turn of events really.[/quote']