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Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

Mr Intensity
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Mr Intensity

Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February AUSTRALIA v Switzerland @ 2.46 Pinnacle 2pts

R1 - M.LAMMER (SUI) v P.LUCZAK (AUS)
R2 - S.WAWRINKA (SUI) v C.GUCCIONE (AUS)
R3 - Y.ALLEGRO / G.BASTL (SUI) v W.ARTHURS / P.HANLEY (AUS)
R4 - S.WAWRINKA (SUI) v P.LUCZAK (AUS)
R5 - M.LAMMER (SUI) v C.GUCCIONE (AUS)
Lammer v Luczak. Big edge for Luczak in this one. He is more experience and certainly a more accomplished player on clay. He was playing very well down in Australia and should bring some of that form into this match. Should be too strong and give Australia a 1-0 lead. Wawrinka v Guccione. Going to give this one to Wawrinka. There will be a lot of pressure on him here (especially if, as I expect, Australia go 1-0 up) but would still expect him to come through. Guccione could keep it close if he serves well which would make it very interesting but would still expect the day to end 1-1. Allegro/Bastl v Arthurs/Hanley. Big edge to Australia here. Arthurs and Hanley are a great team and made it to the Masters Cup Doubles last year. They won 5 tournaments and made it to another 2 finals. Bastl and Allegro only play together occasionally and have only paired once in the Davis Cup (won 9-7 in the 5th against the Dutch). Both players appear to have started the year very poorly and expect them to be low on confidence. Australia 2-1. Wawrinka v Luczak. This should be a cracker. Everyone will expect Wawrinka to come through but there will be big time pressure on him in this match and he needs to react well to it. Luczak is a very decent player on clay and can cause him a lot of problems. Can't decide at this point on this match but it should be close. Lammer v Guccione. Well, this one should also be close. Lammer has more experience on clay but isn't exactly a big time player. Guccione has shown promise on clay, especially in qualifying for the French Open last year and beating Ventura in the first round. I'd fancy him to edge this if it is a live rubber. So, I expect Australia to come into the 3rd day 2-1 up and have a decent chance in both of the final day matchups. Definate value for me at 2.46. (I wrote a longer post about this match earlier but lost it:sad )
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Mr Intensity

Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February KOUBEK v Ljubicic @ 3.25 @ bet365 2pts Should Koubek really be this big for this match? We saw last week he is playing well again, and now goes back home on his favourite surface to take on Ljubicic again. H2H is now 3-2 to Ljubicic and 1-1 on clay. Ljubicic has had a little back problem this year and moving onto clay will not be ideal for him. The Austrians seem very confident comig into this and I feel Koubek has a very decent shot in this one. TURSUNOV v Sluiter @ 1.53 StanJames 4pts This surface will suit both players. Tursunov has been in decent form this year and is certainly a few levels above Sluiter. Sluiter picks up some good results in Challengers but nothing more. H2H is 1-0 to Tursunov winning comfortably on a quick surface late last year. I expect Tursunov to get the Russians off to a strong start. LUCZAK v Lammer @ 1.40 Bet365 4pts Already mentioned this in the tie bet on Australia. Luczak is simply a lot better player on clay than Lammer. Expect Luczak to get the Aussies off to a strong start against a nervy Swiss side. MIRNYI v Robredo @ 1.83 Stan James 4pts Basically, this is Mirnyis court. He is 14-0 here in singles rubbers including big wins against Canas and Safin. I worry about 3 5 set matches in 3 days to give Belarus the tie - but I think he can get them off to a great start. H2H is actually 2-1 to Robredo but they were all a while ago and none were in front of the Beasts adoring crowd. Both have started the year in average form but I make Mirnyi a decent favourite at home. Maybe a couple more in the morning when more prices go up:@. Sorry for the short write ups, too tired:( .

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bunnylove

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

KOUBEK v Ljubicic @ 3.25 @ bet365 2pts Should Koubek really be this big for this match? We saw last week he is playing well again, and now goes back home on his favourite surface to take on Ljubicic again. H2H is now 3-2 to Ljubicic and 1-1 on clay. Ljubicic has had a little back problem this year and moving onto clay will not be ideal for him. The Austrians seem very confident comig into this and I feel Koubek has a very decent shot in this one.
This indeed isnt the surface that would suit Ljubicic, but i'd be careful with this pick. After all Ljubicic is 5th ranked player in the world and surely will not give in easy. He is a smart player and he'll wait for his chances against austrian veteran. MAybe we should wait till the end of the match Ancic - Melzer, cous if Ancic fails, then surely the pressure will be on Ljubicic to even the score. :unsure Hard pick for the first round of Davis cup good luck with your picks anywayz Mr. Intensity :hope
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bunnylove

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February Another match comes to my attention. Nicolas Massu (CHI) - Dominik Hrbaty (SVK) Even though i had swore to myself i would never ever again bet on a match that had something to do with Hrbaty i am tempted to break my rule (again). This guy messes up my tennis bets so often i dont even want to go there. But after all tomorrow he faces Massu at his homeground on clay. He plays good on hard and on clay. Massu played well in the tournament on homeground in Vina del mar last week but lost in the finals to Acasuso. Im sure he adopted very well on this surface. They met this year already in Aucland on hard and Massu didnt had much problems (6-2 ; 6-4). Like i said im very tempted to take Massu, but im still not sure, couse if hrbaty wins i think im gonna flip out :@ Its a nice bet if anyone is interested

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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

This indeed isnt the surface that would suit Ljubicic, but i'd be careful with this pick. After all Ljubicic is 5th ranked player in the world and surely will not give in easy. He is a smart player and he'll wait for his chances against austrian veteran. MAybe we should wait till the end of the match Ancic - Melzer, cous if Ancic fails, then surely the pressure will be on Ljubicic to even the score. :unsure Hard pick for the first round of Davis cup good luck with your picks anywayz Mr. Intensity :hope
Cheers mate:ok. I know it's a tough play, but is done purely on price. Bet365 have cut it to 3.00;). I quite fancy Massu in that one also - i'll decide in a lecture and be back on in a couple of hours:lol
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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February MASSU v Hrbaty @ 1.62 Stan James 4pts Massu has a great record in Davis Cup on clay, he is 11-1 with the only defeat coming in the doubles against Argentina a long time ago. Massu kicked some ass in Vina del Mar only last week, beating Gonzalez and reaching the final. So he is certainly used to the coniditions and is playing well which gives him a great shot in this match. Chile is a very tough place to go having to deal with the crowd and the conditions - especially for a European team. Hrbaty has struggled so far this year, and only his fighting qualities got him through a few rounds at the Aussie, which makes his record this year alright. H2H is 2-1 to Hrbaty but Massu won the last meeting at the beginning of this year which should give him confidence. Hrbaty simply doesn't play in South America, except for matches like this, and I think that will make this match too tough for him - especially if, as expected, Slovakia are 1-0 down.

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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February DAVYDENKO 3-0 and NALBANDIAN 3-0 @ 3.44 Stan James 2pts This is a very risky one, but I think it's worthwhile. I don't like to 'risk' too much on set betting and with Stan James one of the only bookies offering set betting on these matches I think it's worthwhile. Davydenko is playing Van Gemerden who is nowhere near his class. I see nothing in his game which is going to hurt Davydenko. He has only played in one live Davis Cup rubber, which was in the doubles, and I can't see him being ready for this. He has never even played a top 10 player! Davydenko is a guy who can get it done on most surfaces and I expect him to be pretty ruthless today. Nalbandian plays Soderling and looking at the H2H is a surprise that Soderling beat Nalbandian on clay last year! I'm willing to overlook this and take Bandy 3-0. The main problem for the Swedes is the conditions here - Soderling has never played a match in South America. Expect a hostile crowd and a very slow clay court and I can't see Nalbandian having any problems.

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bunnylove

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

Damn you Nalbandian:wall :wall
Too bad for Nalbandian Mr. Intensity, i dont get it, after he lost the first set, he kicked the s**t out of Soderling...damn, it would have been a great bet. Just for the record i chickened out from Massu - Hrbaty game, so that one will probably come through for you :) good luck :hope
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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

Too bad for Nalbandian Mr. Intensity, i dont get it, after he lost the first set, he kicked the s**t out of Soderling...damn, it would have been a great bet. Just for the record i chickened out from Massu - Hrbaty game, so that one will probably come through for you :) good luck :hope
Cheers mate. Very poor start from Nalbandian:(. Koubek is currently getting whipped - a bit strange, he was 1-0 and had break points in Ljubicics first service game but since then has been terrible:(.
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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

german coach just had to tell the crowd to be quiet over the umpires mic in the Haas match :lol :lol :lol
Never seen it before:lol :lol :lol The umpiring in the Germany-France match has been awful, so many overrules and contradictory decisions. Kiefer chucked the match because of it and Haas could go the same way:unsure
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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February A decent day. Disappointed with the performances I got from Koubek and Nalbandian, but that happens. Australia end the day 1-1, as expected;) . KOUBEK v Ljubicic @ 3.25 @ bet365 2pts :@ LOST loss 2pts TURSUNOV v Sluiter @ 1.53 StanJames 4pts :D WON profit 2.12pts LUCZAK v Lammer @ 1.40 Bet365 4pts :D WON profit 1.6pts MIRNYI v Robredo @ 1.83 Stan James 4pts :D WON profit 3.32pts MASSU v Hrbaty @ 1.62 Stan James 4pts :D WON profit 2.48pts DAVYDENKO 3-0 and NALBANDIAN 3-0 @ 3.44 Stan James 2pts :@ LOST loss 2pts W/L: 4/2 Staked: 20pts Profit: 5.52pts Yield: 27.6%

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davidmphill

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February Just need the French doubles team to do the biz today and my selection to win it make it through. Been very impressed with the French, the wat they dealt with the German crowd and the players they were playing were no mugs either. As for Andy Roddick, I can only see his career going one way now, downhill. I believe unless he adds to his game he will struggle from now on. You dont lose at home to Pavel if you have lofty ambitions and how many coaches has the guy got shot of now!?

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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February CLEMENT/LLODRA v Haas/Waske @ 1.813 Pinnacle 4pts Cannot see beyond the French in this one. Llodra will be the best doubles player on the court by some margin and Clement can be very effective too. This partnership had very good wins last year against Youzhny/Andreev and Bjorkman/Aspelin. I expect them to pick up another today. Morale must be very high for the French after the amazing performances yesterday. Haas/Waske have won the 3 doubles matches they have played in Davis Cup but they were all in 5 sets and all against average opposition. The Germans tend to get down of themselves and I can see them (especially Haas) putting in an average performance today. MIRNYI/VOLTCHKOV v Lopez/Verdasco @ 1.524 Pinnacle 4pts Cracking performances from Belarus yesterday and they must be really up for it today. The Spaniards are unhappy, just as they were last year against the Slovaks, and that certainly isn't going to help them today. Lopez and Verdasco are both fragile mentally, and I can't see them being able to cope today. Mirnyi is the best doubles players on display here by a long way. Voltchkov showed yesterday how well he is playing in a stunning win and I expect this team to be very agressive and be able to dominate today. SCHNYDER v Pierce @ 2.32 Betfair 2pts Not impressed at all with Pierce this year. She failed in Australia and has looked poor here, especially with a tight win over Loit yesterday. Schnyder we know enjoys the indoor conditions and looked very impressive taking care of Dementieva yesterday. H2H is 6-2 to Pierce but 3 were when Schnyder was very young - the last 5 meeting have been close and I expect this one to be close too.

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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February

Just need the French doubles team to do the biz today and my selection to win it make it through. Been very impressed with the French, the wat they dealt with the German crowd and the players they were playing were no mugs either. As for Andy Roddick, I can only see his career going one way now, downhill. I believe unless he adds to his game he will struggle from now on. You dont lose at home to Pavel if you have lofty ambitions and how many coaches has the guy got shot of now!?
Yeah that looks an awesome pick mate:clap :clap Still got to hope for my Russians on the French clay:hope
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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February NALBANDIAN/CALLERI v Bjorkman/Aspelin @ 2.04 Pinnacle 2pts OK I know the Swedes are the proper doubles players but I still think they should be opposed. They don't normally player together so no advantage there. They do alright in Davis Cup but considering there quality in doubles I would expect them to have a better record. They lost the doubles last year against the French on an indoor clay court and that match certainly showed that they don't favour this surface (especially Aspelin). Also, they simply don't play in South America and aren't used to the conditions. The Argentines tend to do alright in the doubles - at least, they do better than expected. In Nalbandian they have a player who can play an all court game and is strong at the net. He recovered from a slow start yesterday and looked alright. I expect the Argentines to be able to control this primarily from the back and should win the tie today.

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Mr Intensity

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Re: Davis Cup 1st Round 10th-12th February CLEMENT/LLODRA v Haas/Waske @ 1.813 Pinnacle 4pts :D WON profit 3.252pts MIRNYI/VOLTCHKOV v Lopez/Verdasco @ 1.524 Pinnacle 4pts :D WON profit 2.096pts SCHNYDER v Pierce @ 2.32 Betfair 2pts :@ LOST loss 2pts NALBANDIAN/CALLERI v Bjorkman/Aspelin @ 2.04 Pinnacle 2pts :D WON profit 2.08pts W/L: 7/3 Staked: 32pts Profit: 10.948pts Yield: 34.21% Also Australia move into a 2-1 lead as expected;) Still not making enough on Sports-Punter:wall

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