slapdash Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.30 Hereford Able King (14/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money. We're getting 3.80 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.40 on Betfair, and the win price on Betfair is also slightly lower, at 14.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 What about this horse: 3.20 Market Rasen, Chain @12 (Betfred). We get 3.75 for the place. Betfair is 12/3 (win/place). I know that value in this races (only 2 places paid) is very rare but the difference looks too big. Don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hey Just had a look at Able kings SP which was 20/1! Anyway welldone slapdash :ok Stemcin01 steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.30 Hereford Able King (14/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money. We're getting 3.80 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.40 on Betfair, and the win price on Betfair is also slightly lower, at 14.50.2nd at 20/1. Great going.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Great pick mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks. Shame I took the 14/1. That's an 18 point profit, but I haven't updated since Monday, when I had a loser, so a net 2 point loss to go in the books: Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 2463.72 Total Staked: 4480 W/P/L: 27/76/121 Profit/Loss: +1463.72 (Win +427.33, Place +1036.39) Yield: +32.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Slapdash, Glad to see that this system is still going strong for you :clap (I looked at this about 4 months ago and Um'd 'n Ah'd). Question. As the Odds seem to follow the same pattern (i.e. Bookmaker WIN odds about the same as Betfair, and Betfairs LAY Place odds less than the Bookmakers E/W odds), what sort of return would you have had if you'd traded the 'WIN' to balance out, and traded the 'Place' to take a profit? If you'd done this would you not have won, albeit a small amount, on every selection? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Question. As the Odds seem to follow the same pattern (i.e. Bookmaker WIN odds about the same as Betfair, and Betfairs LAY Place odds less than the Bookmakers E/W odds), what sort of return would you have had if you'd traded the 'WIN' to balance out, and traded the 'Place' to take a profit? If you'd done this would you not have won, albeit a small amount, on every selection? Haven't really looked at it, to be honest. One practical difficulty is that there's usually not much money available to match on the place market when I look at the Betfair odds. Most of the money I've been putting on these myself recently has been in EW doubles, which makes it harder to lay sensibly on Betfair, although I have sometimes laid the win on the second leg when the first leg has been a big-priced winner and I can lay at a shorter price than I've taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi guys. Chain pulled up. I must thank you to Slapdash. Since I didn't get any response I took only a small stake... :-D Thunderfoot: I did arbitrage on horses only several times under this system and there was a NR in two cases so the prices were spoiled. Last year I was involved in arbitrage hunt on one local bookie and I was using only Betfair to cover my bets. After an average commission of 4.3% my profit in a long run was around 3%. However when I calculated the winning bets with the bookie the profit would be almost 8%. So I actually "paid" 2/3 of my profit to Betfair for the fact that my bank was secured. I think it is similar with this system. You can place large bets with bookies and cover your bank on BF but you must pay for it. Your absolut profit would be higher I guess but the yield would be much smaller. Or you can bet small stakes and leave it. Or you can do both as Slapdash suggested. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi guys. Chain pulled up. I must thank you to Slapdash. Since I didn't get any response I took only a small stake... :-D ... it was only because I didn't see your post until too late. I remember noticing Chain when I looked (earlier than you, I guess) and deciding it wasn't quite good enough (I forget why), but obviously the Betfair prices changed by the time you looked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thunderfoot: I did arbitrage on horses only several times under this system and there was a NR in two cases so the prices were spoiled. Actually, that's a very good point. In a 16 runner handicap or 8 runner race, there's a danger that there will be a NR, changing the number of places paid by the bookies, but not by Betfair, so there's a small risk of losing both bets on the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 6.45 Goodwood Incidentally (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. There are short priced first and second favourites. We'd get place odds of 1.70 at the best early price of 7/2, compared to lay odds of 1.49 on Betfair. The Betfair win odds are also 7/2. I'll take SP, following my theory that the price of the third favourite often drifts in races with a market like this, although that theory hasn't been working so well recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.05 York Cape Royal (16/1 Skybet) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 5.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.95 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also lower at 14/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I've just got to the computer. If you missed Cape Royal at Skybet (like me) you still have a chance with Sean Graham. enjoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I've just got to the computer. If you missed Cape Royal at Skybet (like me) you still have a chance with Sean Graham. enjoy ...although if you did miss it, you might have been lucky, as there's now a non-runner cutting the race to 15 runners and only three places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 16, 2006 Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 ...although if you did miss it, you might have been lucky, as there's now a non-runner cutting the race to 15 runners and only three places. :wall 4th. Good example how surebets don't have to be "sure". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 16, 2006 Author Share Posted June 16, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hmm. Incidentally won, but SP was only 9/4 and there was a 20p Rule 4 deduction on top of that, so with Cape Royal losing, that's just a 1.6 point profit on the day. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 2465.32 Total Staked: 4520 W/P/L: 28/76/122 Profit/Loss: +1465.32 (Win +435.33, Place +1029.99) Yield: +32.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.35 Bath Gingko (12/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 4.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.98 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also lower at 11.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.35 Bath Milk and Sultana (16/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 5.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.5 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also lower at 14/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sporting Odds cut that price within 2 minutes of you posting there Slapdash. Scared or what ? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.45 Sandown Triple Bend (12/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW.Each way system. There's an odds-on favourite, and we're getting 3.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.88 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also slightly lower at 12.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.45 Sandown Corum (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds-on favourite, and we'd get 2.40 for the place at the best early price of 7/1, compared to a lay price of 2.10 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price just slightly higher at 8.20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.35 Bath Luciferous (20/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.50 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is also lower at 18/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.25 York O'Tara (9/2 Totesport) 10 points EW. Each way system. Short priced first and second favourites. We're getting 1.90 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.57 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower at 5.30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.05 Lingfield Dream Witness (14/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Each way system. Short priced first and second favourites. We're getting 3.80 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.05 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 14/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.45 Sandown Corum (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds-on favourite, and we'd get 2.40 for the place at the best early price of 7/1, compared to a lay price of 2.10 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price just slightly higher at 8.20. Corum wins at 6/1 :clap :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Corum wins at 6/1 :clap :clap :clap :clap Lots of losers to go with that, though. I think I need a return from Dream Witness to make a profit on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Betfred offers BOG for Salisbury 2.10: Sea Map @8 might be some value. We get 2.75 for place. Betfair is 8/2.3 (win/place). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Betfred offers BOG for Salisbury 2.10: Sea Map @8 might be some value. We get 2.75 for place. Betfair is 8/2.3 (win/place). Sorry guys. Didn't notice a non-runner in a 16runners race so no bet. I meant Stratford 2.10. Still recovering from yesterday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 18, 2006 Author Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 From yesterday. Four losers, Corum won at 6/1. O'Tara was placed, with a 5p Rule 4 deduction, and Gingko was placed. Makes a 12.69 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 2478.01 Total Staked: 4660 W/P/L: 29/78/126 Profit/Loss: +1478.01 (Win +435.33, Place +1042.68) Yield: +31.72% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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