slapdash Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.30 Windsor Malakiya (12/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 4.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.00 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 12/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.30 Windsor Cantrip (16/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 5.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.45 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also slightly lower at 16.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.30 Windsor Ariodante (20/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.60 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also lower at 18/1.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Heavy night!! WHATS THE REAL DIFFERENCE BETWENN pOUNDS AND POINTS? :tongue2 In my threads I always use PTS and its up to the individual to determine what 1PT EQUALS. I also like to keep each seperate thread to a level PTS system as stated in that thread. For instance if I gave 30 x 1pt win bets it's up to you to decide what the 1PT REPRESENTS. Like slapdash say's it keeps everthing on an even keel and also easier to work out the p/l stats. What one also as to look at is the end results and just because someone says they are 2000 pounds up that means nothing as this could be from 1 bet.The most inportant thing is the YIELD in relation to the amount of bets won to those placed and their returns. Always remember if I was showing 10pt profit after my 30 x 1pt bets. That would be 10x whatever your 1pt represents [1, 10, 100 pounds or any other sum providing you keep to the same evey bet] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yeah some tipster on sports punter has a yield of 30% and a really low strike rate so he isnt a consistent winner. Think he got one really big EW bet on the darts at 100/1 thats what impressed so much about slapdash's system though. The performance grows show a steady positive correlation over the time he has been doing this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Also a point might be a pound to some, but a point could be £20 to others etc. And to come on here saying " I won £xyz today" , can appear crass and vulgar to some people.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yeah some tipster on sports punter has a yield of 30% and a really low strike rate so he isnt a consistent winner. Think he got one really big EW bet on the darts at 100/1 thats what impressed so much about slapdash's system though. The performance grows show a steady positive correlation over the time he has been doing this system. A bit off-topic, but I know who you mean, and I have a lot of respect for his tips. His style of betting makes the graph of his results look as though he's relied on one big winner, but if you look more closely ... He regularly has tips on long-priced players to win darts tournaments, usually several in the same tournament, and of course being at long odds they mostly lose, but he does get winners (I think he's had two of them win and two come second this year, making a yield of well over 150% this year on these bets). But if you discount these bets and just look at his lower priced tips, I think you'll find that he's been getting a fairly steady yield of about 7% on the other bets. If you're betting at odds around 2.00-3.00, that's a good yield. The problem is that while he's making a steady profit on the shorter priced bets, he's also betting on the long shots, and most of the time they're losing, cancelling out the profit from the shorter priced bets, but when one does win, he gets a sudden large jump in his profit. Just looking at the graph of his profits, it looks as though he's roughly breaking even most of the time, with one "lucky" big winner, but that's deceptive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I see Malakiya is a N/R now reducing the field to 15 and probably decreasing the value on the other selections as a result too. Or do others think otherwise ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I see Malakiya is a N/R now reducing the field to 15 and probably decreasing the value on the other selections as a result too. Or do others think otherwise ? You are right. It's hard to tell now. Comparing apples with pears. Still fruit but... I find these big races the most difficult to deal with. Now it's just about Fortune so GL to all:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 31, 2006 Author Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yes. Of course the problem is that the Betfair place market is still for the first four places, so is no longer directly comparable with the odds you get from the bookies who now pay only three places. I know many people subscribe to a conspiracy theory about how 16-runner handicaps "always" have a non-runner, but I'm not convinced. I tend to more or less ignore the possibility (except maybe being a bit stricter about marginal selections). But others may want to be more careful. ... at least when I've backed two horses in the race, they can't both come fourth. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 unlucky mate! Windsor 8.30 1st 16 Sendinpost 10-1 2nd 7 Kapellmeister (IRE) 9-4 F 3rd 8 Looks The Business (IRE) 10-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted July 31, 2006 Share Posted July 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 unlucky mate! Unlucky were the foolish layers who bet against Sendinpost: http://members.chello.cz/slh/jul31.htm I am just pleased that none of our horses came 4th and that Bobs Your Uncle came nowhere as well since the early price was 20/1 but I missed it. So a loss of only 40pts instead of 60:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 There are a couple of races this evening that might produce something later, but I can't find anything this afternoon. Yesterday, two losers and a non-runner, for a 40 point loss. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3344.87 Total Staked: 6420 W/P/L: 46/106/169 Profit/Loss: +2344.87 (Win +795.33, Place +1549.54) Yield: +36.52% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 1, 2006 Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yeah theres alot of odds-on favourites this evening so i think something might just creep up! Why do u stake more points on here than on sports punter? R u more careful with your bets on there? Sorry if u think im being rude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 1, 2006 Author Share Posted August 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yeah theres alot of odds-on favourites this evening so i think something might just creep up! Why do u stake more points on here than on sports punter? R u more careful with your bets on there? Sorry if u think im being rude. The only reason is that on Sports Punter the rules limit the number of points you can stake in terms of the odds. So for example, on a 6/1 horse, you're allowed to stake up to 5 points EW, but on a 20/1 horse only up to 2 points EW. I always choose the maximum that's allowed. Here I just stick to 10 points EW to keep the arithmetic easier. There's absolutely no significance in the stakes at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.05 Newton Abbot Countrywide Belle (8/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money. We're getting 2.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.28 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price only slightly higher at 9.20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all I can find this afternoon. There are a couple of races at Leicester this evening that might produce something, though one of those is a 16 runner handicap, so any non-runners will put paid to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.05 Newton Abbot Countrywide Belle (8/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money. We're getting 2.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.28 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price only slightly higher at 9.20. Finished 3rd: Well done again!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 yeah well done slapdash slapdash slapdash com dash com dash com dash com :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted August 2, 2006 Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 any for tonite slap??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 2, 2006 Author Share Posted August 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Nothing tonight. Million Percent at 12/1 in the 8.40 Leicester is close, and it might be worth keeping an eye on the Betfair prices, but especially since it's a 16-runner handicap and there are still more than 3 hours for a non-runner to emerge and spoil the place terms, I'm not going to touch it. Six point profit today, with Countrywide Belle placed. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3350.87 Total Staked: 6440 W/P/L: 46/107/169 Profit/Loss: +2350.87 (Win +785.33, Place +1565.54) Yield: +36.50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.35 Goodwood Blackheath (20/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.70 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also lower, at 17/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 3, 2006 Author Share Posted August 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 20 points lost today. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3330.87 Total Staked: 6460 W/P/L: 46/107/170 Profit/Loss: +2330.87 (Win +775.33, Place +1555.54) Yield: +36.08% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxi Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 HI slapdash I am based in australia and have been following your tips for over two months now.I am beginning to get to grips with the method and am starting to obtain the same horses as you as I go along. First of all I must thank you for getting us all to think outside the square. The first thing I noticed when I came over here from the uk 8 yrs ago was that it was possible to obtain place only prices here.I have always thought this was the way to go if it was possible.My question is: You have obviously identified a profitable method of beating the book but why not when you have identified the horses simply back them 20 points on the place with betfair instead of ew with the bookie.I realise this goes against the very principle of the method but your profit analysis shows you to be way in front with the returns on your places? I ask this because there is probably a simple answer but I am still learning the method. Thanks slapdash.;) ps. to the aussie somewhere back in the thread who said it was difficult getting money out of australia. Set up a neteller account.Most bookies accept neteller.:ok I realise you will probably say it is because of the price differences of the bookie but is the difference great enough to warrant the 'win ' side of the wager? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 4, 2006 Author Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 You have obviously identified a profitable method of beating the book but why not when you have identified the horses simply back them 20 points on the place with betfair instead of ew with the bookie.I realise this goes against the very principle of the method but your profit analysis shows you to be way in front with the returns on your places? I haven't actually kept records of what would happen if I just backed the place on Betfair. If there's still a profit from the place, then it would be a lot smaller because I'd be getting worse odds, but that doesn't necessarily mean there wouldn't still be a profit. I suspect that with the "large handicap" horses, this would eliminate all the profit, as with these the bookies' place prices I'm taking are typically a lot higher than the Betfair place prices. But with the others, there might well still be a profit to be made. Let's see. A rough calculation: A "typical" selection is something like 8/1, paying 2.60 for the place at the bookie, with a Betfair lay place price around 2.30. The Betfair place price to back will be lower, say 2.25, or about 2.20 after commission. I'm showing around a 50% yield on the place bets, which would correspond to a 1.5/2.6 probability of placing, so backing on Betfair would give an expected return per unit bet of 2.2*1.5/2.6, which is about 1.27, giving a 27% yield, which is a little less than what I'm getting overall on the EW bets. But this calculation is based on so many estimates, it could be way out. One practical problem is that there are only rather small amounts of money trading on the Betfair place markets, at least until just before the race, so I don't know how much it would be possible to bet in this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 4, 2006 Author Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The first thing I noticed when I came over here from the uk 8 yrs ago was that it was possible to obtain place only prices here.I have always thought this was the way to go if it was possible. I know you can bet place only on Centrebet, which is an Australian bookie, isn't it? But as on Betfair, the place prices you get there, at least on the kind of horse I'm picking, are a lot smaller than you get from an EW bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 4, 2006 Author Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.40 Thirsk Somersault (6/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite. We're getting 2.20 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.73 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is slightly higher, at 7.4, but the dufference in place prices is enough to compensate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 is that the only one today mate?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted August 4, 2006 Author Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all, at least until this evening. We seem to be have had a quiet spell the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestbets Posted August 4, 2006 Share Posted August 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 What about 8:10 Nottingham Aristofilia 10/1 Totesport? We're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.54 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 9/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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