paulthepro Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.50 Yarmouth Phoebe Woodstock (12/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odd on favourite. We're getting 3.40 for the place, compared to a l ay price of 2.70 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price 12.50. I understand the lay price on betfair but how do you get the 3.40 for the place ? I thought it was one quarter of the odds of 12/1 which is 3 . Forgive me for sounding thick as I am just trying to get to grips with your system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 19, 2006 Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Pablo, some races have each way terms at one quarter of the odds. Other races have each way terms at one fifth of the odds. 12/1 divided by 5, gives odds of 2.4/1 or 3.4 in decimal terms. Hope that helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I have actually contemplated only going for selections where the EW bet gives more than evens for a placed horse so i dont have to rely on a horse to win so i make a profit. ie slapdash puts selection up at 4.5 and strength usually 5? if it doesnt win then the profit will be -whatever. I believe theres as much chance that a 10/1 horse will place than a 9/2 horse to finish first. so therefore, more chance overall to make a profit. I want to understand this system to work it on my own but with most things it takes a while to grasp! Thank you for accepting my apology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 It's true that you'll more often make a loss on the short-priced ones than the 10/1 ones (because you need them to win to make a profit), but personally I don't much care whether each individual bet makes a profit ... it's the long term overall profit/loss that matters. Having said that, the yield on the short-priced ones was lower last year, although this year I have a feeling that there have been more short-priced winners, though I haven't checked carefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Even though this is above my usual maximum price of 20/1, it would still be a selection if the price dropped t0 20/1, so I'll include it. I don't expect the price will last long. 5.15 Cartmel Water Pistol (25/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite, and we're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.20 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is also lower, at 22.0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.30 Hamilton Howards Princess (9/2, Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money or a touch odds on. We're getting 1.90 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.69 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also 9/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.30 Hamilton Limonia (6/1, Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money or a touch odds on. We're getting 2.20 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.94 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also slightly lower, at 6.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.10 Leicester Lipocco (9/2 William Hill) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite, and we're getting 1.90 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.71 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also 9/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.10 Leicester Party Palace (12/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite, and we're getting 3.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.68 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also shorter at 11/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestbets Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash, sorry what about Stir Crazy... we're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.56 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also at 10/1. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 8.05 Wolverhampton Secretary General (12/1 Skybet) 10 point EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite, and we're getting 3.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.60 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price just slightly higher at 13.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash, sorry what about Stir Crazy... we're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.56 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also at 10/1. thanks Yes, the Betfair win price was a bit higher a few minutes ago, but I've been keeping an eye on it. Busy day today! 3.10 Leicester Stir Crazy (10/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds on favourite, and we're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.46 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also 10/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Think that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 i fort you would never stop slap :p lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richards1986 Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Do you think we should choose one or two out of the 3 on the 3.10pm at Leicester? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slap, I was just wondering with all them tips are you going to add to your "Lucky 15 Suicide Mission" thread on at the races??? Good luck anyways mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Do you think we should choose one or two out of the 3 on the 3.10pm at Leicester? The system says there is value in all of them. I looked last year at races where there were several selections, and the yield didn't seem to be any lower than in races where there was only one selection. Of course the problem with picking just one of them is ... which one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christiano Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 So I understand that you are picking all the horses which represents value?No matter if there are six value horses in one race?I must say that you missed Welsh Dane (19:35 Worc) yesterday.He won at 16/1.Pity.lay price was 3.60 and place was 4.20.Win prices were similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bestbets Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash, can I ask you? From what time you start to search for selections? I started to search at 11:00 and at once have found only two: Stir Crazy and PartyPalace. I have looked all runnings but have not seen the majority of horses, the lay price for a place on BetFair were much higher and had no value. many thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 So I understand that you are picking all the horses which represents value?No matter if there are six value horses in one race? In principle, yes. I can't say I've looked at what the yield is for races with that many selections, though. I remember one large handicap last year where things got a bit out of hand and I ended up putting about 8 horses from the race on Sports Punter! Made a 0.5 point profit on the race if I remember correctly! :) I must say that you missed Welsh Dane (19:35 Worc) yesterday.He won at 16/1.Pity.lay price was 3.60 and place was 4.20.Win prices were similar. I remember looking at that, and noticing that the place prices looked good, but when I looked, the Betfair win price was too high. Of course, as the Betfair prices change, it does depend when you look. Oh well! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash' date= can I ask you? From what time you start to search for selections? I started to search at 11:00 and at once have found only two: Stir Crazy and PartyPalace. I have looked all runnings but have not seen the majority of horses, the lay price for a place on BetFair were much higher and had no value. many thanks Recently, the Betfair place market seems to settle down for the afternoon racing sometime after 11:00, so I'm usually looking around 11:30. If you look too early, then the gap between back and lay prices on Betfair is often so large that you can't really read anything into them. I think it varies with the time of year, though. In the winter, racing starts earlier, and the Betfair markets settle down correspondingly early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Slapdash, can I ask you about SP's? There are SP+ prices at Centrebet booke, why you are not using them? They are much better:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Slapdash, can I ask you about SP's? There are SP+ prices at Centrebet booke, why you are not using them? They are much better:ok For the purpose of this thread, to keep things simple. For myself, because they won't let me. :sad Of course, you may as well use SP+ if you can, but I suspect that if you take too much advantage of it, they stop giving you the option. Having said that, I was using it in a rather cheeky way before they removed the option (betting on long odds-on favourites ... it's well known that betting blindly on these, you'll lose a very small percentage of your stake at SP in the long run, so at SP+ ... :D.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REMIXXX Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 For the purpose of this thread, to keep things simple. For myself, because they won't let me. :sad Of course, you may as well use SP+ if you can, but I suspect that if you take too much advantage of it, they stop giving you the option. Having said that, I was using it in a rather cheeky way before they removed the option (betting on long odds-on favourites ... it's well known that betting blindly on these, you'll lose a very small percentage of your stake at SP in the long run, so at SP+ ... :D.) The same problem (they closed SP+ for me), but I have some variants to fix problems with SP+ is not avaible, if you want I can give theme to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.30 Hamilton Limonia (6/1, Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. The favourite is around even money or a touch odds on. We're getting 2.20 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.94 on Betfair, with the Betfair win price also slightly lower, at 6.80. A winner, I believe :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesymaxwell Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Great picks slapdash. Decided to double the three at the 3.10 and the two at 4.30 as well !!!!!! 2 firsts and two placed !!!! cheers mate :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigelen Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash you"re a winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 slapdash you"re a winnerTigelen you're a newbie and :welcome to the PL and :drums for losing your cherry! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tigelen Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 davidmphill thank you for your welcome and i think i have a lot to iearn from PL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 In the last race 8.05 Wolverhampton a "value" bet emerged late. these were the price just before the off. HORSE BF PRICE PLACE BF WIN PRICE BOOKIES ODDS POTENTIAL RETURN BOWLED OVER 3.60 28.00 21.00 104.17 Because I monitor and calculate right up to off time if I see a race with the right shape. I often found these type of bets late. In addition because of the increase liquidity I'm prepared to work to reduce margins. Does anyone else look for value E/W up to off time? Above horse finished 3rd @20/1 I prefer the scenario with Slapdash type bets where there is a clear 2nd and 3rd favourite, backed up by time figures or OR or other ratings.. So generally I concentrate on mainly non-handicaps for these types of bets. When betting in handicaps stakes are reduced significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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