Tulenos Posted December 27, 2005 Share Posted December 27, 2005 This tour consists (surprisingly enough) of four races. 29/12 will see them in Obersdorf with Jakub Janda a worthy favourite to win the tour and probably one or two races. I quite fancy him to win the first one as he is in red hot form. Alternatively, I'd lay Ahonen (if the current prices @ BF will last aroung the mark where they are now - 3.7, but this is to back, not to lay), terribly out of form and probably aiming his trick at the Olympics. Janda now @ 2.52 to back and 4.6 to lay, I expect something like 5/2 come 28/12 - the day of qualification which takes place one day before the race if I understand this year's rules well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 27, 2005 Author Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Oh, the above prices are for the first in Obersdorf - there is no overall market @ BF:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 27, 2005 Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Sounds interesting, do you have much of a background in this market ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 27, 2005 Author Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Follow it each and every season, mate, but betting-wise my interest is a bit lukewarm as there are just a few books who care to open a book on it. This said, if the BF market doesn't form to any kinda shape some half a day before the start, it will never form - forget the in-running betting in ski jumping - the market is open, but no bidders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted December 27, 2005 Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec I like Ski jumping also interesting. Have watched this tournament as long as I can remember. Mostly one or two jumpers are above else in this tournament, but it hasn't always been the same guy who has dominated season before that (Janda at this year), because most jumpers are aiming to have success here at this tournament. This year Olympics will be most important competitions, but I quess four hills comes as a second place. Have to take another look to this market closer. I found training jumps as a very usefull tools in ski jumping and also history in some particular hill or hill type. Some jumpers have more powerfull jump and some are better flyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 27, 2005 Author Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Have to take another look to this market closer. I found training jumps as a very usefull tools in ski jumping and also history in some particular hill or hill type. Some jumpers have more powerfull jump and some are better flyers. That's right. Also agree the guy dominating the early season doesn't necessarily have to rule here, just from what I've seen so far, there is very little opposition this year. He also is the only Czech chance to win this after legendary Raska a long time ago and Four Hills is considered a top affair locally, while I think especially Ahonen (has won here already) might take it as a training session for the Olympics - if he's not going Sakala's way - the older, the worse, but still competing even though terribly out of form for several years (I mean Sakala some seven years ago);) Will wait and see if the odds are of any interest;) Almost sure Four Hills will be covered by Eurosport (free to view) as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 27, 2005 Author Share Posted December 27, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Well, Janda is actually 3.0 to win and 1.5 to finish in Top 3 in Obersdorf. If nothing better emerges, I think I'll take a bit of the win of the place (depending on weather news etc.) He is also 2.6 to win the whole tour which ain't too bad. All quaotes from my local book - will wait till some real prices appear on the net. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 28, 2005 Author Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Well the market exists @ B365 but is well hidden - Janda 2.90 to win Obersdorf (1.33 podium finish), Ahonen 3.20 to win (would lay him all day if anything like that was available @ BF to lay). Both the same price to win the whole thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec I'm going to ask for 1.5 on betfair for a top 3 finish for Janda and see if anyone bites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted December 28, 2005 Share Posted December 28, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Ahonen 3.20 to win (would lay him all day if anything like that was available @ BF to lay). hmmm, I'm not sure if that would be very wise. Beginning of the season has been dissapointment for Ahonen, but he is anyway second at world cup standigs. He has had good trainings at chirstmas time and he is very stable competitor, which is big advantage in this tour. Lookin at last seven whole tour Ahonen has won three of them and has been second twice. (EDIT:You were talking about opening competition, not whole tour. I ment that it's not maybe wise to lay him against winning the whole tour with that odd. In just one competition the situation is different cause stability doesen't help that much.) There is rumour about Janda has had also very good trainingjumps during christmas time there in Czech, but I wouldn't forget about Ahonen. Not yet. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Qualifications and trainings was jumped yesterday. Here are how favorites jumped plus couple of intersting ones with three decent jump (plus there was couple of other good jumps, but they didn't manage to have three decent jumps so I didn't include them): Training1Training2QualificationAhonen131,5123,5124,5Janda131124135Widhölzl136128142,5Herr125133,5130,5Kuettel134,5125136,5Uhrmann132129137,5Kasai125128,5129 Janda's equipments were illegal and he had to change them at todays competition. That might be negative news for him, but not sure about that. Widhölzl was best according to these stats and he's last jump was huge. Almost hill record. He's odd at Betfair is 5,6. I think that's worth of some thinking. Kuettel and Uhrmann are 8,5 at Centrebet and Herr could be big suprise here. His odd at Centrebet is huge 51. These are my pics to win today at Oberstdorf. Widhölzl to win at Oberstdorf @ 5,6 @ Betfair, 3 pts Kuettel to win at Ober @ 8,5 @ Centrebet, 2 pts Uhrmann to win at Ober @ 8,5 @ Centrebet, 2 pts Herr to win at Ober @ 51 @ Centrebet, 0,5 pts Ahonen to beat Koefler (H2H) at Ober @ 1,5 @ Expekt, 4 pts Kasai to beat Vasillev (H2H) at obet @ 1,6 @ Expekt, 2 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Ahonen wasn't really impressing at practise, but I still count on him. He is mostly at his best at competitions. I also believe him to be very stable and being at least in top 6 at every competition and that's why I believe him to have success at whole tour. Ahonen to win four hill tour @ 3,5 @ many bookers, 2 pts Widhoelzl was impressive yesterday, but I don't believe him to have that kind of steadiness through whole tour in his jumps that Ahonen has. That's why I pick also this H2H one: Ahonen to beat Widhoelzl at four hills tour @ 1,6 @ Unibet, 3 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted December 29, 2005 Author Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Janda's equipments were illegal and he had to change them at todays competition. Not only Janda, but the whole Czech team had their skis a bit longer than allowed:( The impact to be seen. Well, I'll probably just watch it and see if something emerges after Obersdorf.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted December 29, 2005 Share Posted December 29, 2005 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Betfair have settled my top 3 finish for Janda as a winner. Thanks for info :clap :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Any reasons not to go again for the second round starting tomorrow?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Any reasons not to go again for the second round starting tomorrow?? If you mean Janda I quess there's not any reasons not to bet him. Janda was confident in practise, actually so confident that he didn't jump his qualification jump at all. (15 best at world cup will be in competition automatically, so they don't need to qualify). Kasai, Hautamäki and Späth were best at gualification. Ahonen was also very confident in practise and was best in both rounds. (best of those 25 best jumpers who took less speed and jumped at gate 10, rest had gate 12, which means they had more speed. In competition everybody will naturally use the same gate.) Janda was second in both rounds. So I quess betting both of those two, Ahonen and Janda, to be in top three might be quite safe bet. Both of them's odds are about 1,5 at Betfair. If you like to try better odds Ahonen is 3,25 to win this and Janda 3,5 at Centrebet. ps. I'm not putting my bets and points this time cause this is so short tour so there isn't actually any long time following and no mean to use points like I did at Oberstdorf. And besides I will mostly do my main bets online during competition (Like I did with Ahonen at Oberstdorf ;) ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Janda won and Ahonen was second. :nana Both safely at top three. Excellent result to this competition, but thinking about whole tour they should have change places from my point of view. :) Now Janda is very close to Ahonen and my tour winner bet to Ahonen is threatened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 1, 2006 Share Posted January 1, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Cheers for the update Mixer, I'll keep an eye on the next 2 jumps. I'll keep looking for Janda & Ahonen for top 3 places, I only bet on odds on shots, so 1.5 is fine for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 2, 2006 Author Share Posted January 2, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Have been away for a while but would have pretty much exho Mixer's thoughts here. The next leg is @ Innsbruck on 4th January and I can't see why either of them, Janda and Ahonen, should finish out of the frame. Hopefully @ semi-decent prices. The fourth leg is @ Bischofshofen on 6th January. So far the whole thing looks between Anonen and Janda who are separated by just a few points.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Hmm, interesting, either some tactics which I somehow doubt or just Janda wants to save his body the torture two days on the trot. The thing is he is too light and as he's not able to gain weight through overeating he simply must drink loads of water (2 litres I believe) before jumping in a competition - it has to do with the length of skis - when he failed the test in the very first practice, he was punished. Since then, he's taken the stance not to jump in qualification as he can afford it - it "just means" he's couple with the quali winner - who is Ahonen this time. There is a KO system in force so it's either him or Ahonen to get further unless the loser jumps one of the fifth longest jumps which means automatic qualification as well. A bit risky approach, but I believe he knows what he's doing. Waiting for the Top 3 prices atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixer Posted January 4, 2006 Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Interesting info about Janda. I just thought he didn't jump at qualification cause he wanted to make sure to jump at the very end of first round in competition. Ahonen was very good at practise and qualification and I would consider him as a favorite to win today. Biggest problem would be the speed. If there is too much of it and the jumps are very long Ahonen has trouble to make decent telemark, cause he has more weight than most jumpers and he usually comes from higher trajectory. He also hurted his knee a little bit at Garmish practise, where his training jump was too long and he had to take it down from very high at the end cause it was going overlong. So I think Ahonen's worst enemy is too much speed and too long jumps and if the jury is wise enough (and not just trying to please the audience) to keep the speed down I think Ahonen is very hard to beat today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 4, 2006 Author Share Posted January 4, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Well, Janda second today and Ahonen only sixth after failing badly the second jump - this means Janda is leading the both the Tour and the World Cup (a long way to go with this one) and can seal the victory on Friday - the "gap" between the two is only two points at the moment so everything is still wide open, but Janda clearly in the driving seat now;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Brazil Posted January 6, 2006 Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec OK It will be tight between Janda and Ahonen now on this tour. I except Ahonen to win THE TOUR though. 2 points in ski jumping is nothing. In Insbruck the wind turned when Ahonen had to wait for his second jump because of the pause for television commercials. But the real value today in Bischofshofen are the two Norwegians who had the longest jumps in qualification. Ahonen and Kuettel were placed 1. and 2. in qualification because they came down from gate 28. Looks to me they got a little too much handicap for that,having jumped 7,5 and 10,5 meters (!) less than Romøren. The Norwegians are also really competing against each other for their places in Torino winter olympics.There are quite many of them and Sigurd Pettersen was even left at home because of small car accident - where he wasn't hurt physically. So a win today would do nicely after Bystøl got his on Wednesday. Because he's at 19.00 and the winner from Wed I also have to place a bit on him too. BUT My favourite to win is Bjørn Einar Romøren who is a jumper who could be called "a flyer" ( verdensrekordholder at 239 meter...that's norwegian,byt he way) and suits the hill today. He is 7.50 at Bet and Win today. Roar Ljøkelsøy is 11.00 I also pick him accordingly . I'm a Finn so only cool reasoning in this :) There are 1hr 35 minutes to go now before the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec 2 points in ski jumping is nothing. Don't forget Janda consistenstly gets better marks for his style. Given the odds NOW, though, I tend to agree Ahonen is the one to back (if you're not on JAnda already, that is). Today - Janda 1.4 to make the frame, Ahonen 1.5 to do the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 6, 2006 Author Share Posted January 6, 2006 Re: Ski jumping - Four Hills tour starting 29th Dec Quite interesting final result of the tour, but I doubt any backer of either Janda or Ahonen is overly happy. What happened? There was an incredible dead heat. Ahonen won the last event, but only by TWO points, which was exactly the difference between him and Janda. So there are two winners of the tour - Janda:) and Ahonen - and bookies can apply the DH rule.:( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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