NFL-wk14

[gazzyg]

Gone for pretty much my maximum bet on Patriots(-4) v Bills Patriots are just starting to get some of their multi ring winning squad back healthy showing up in 3 wins out the last 4 giving them a chance to clinch the divisional title this weekend. Running back Corey Dillon is now back taking a lot of pressure off Tom Brady giving him both pass and run options to play with, as well as being the last thing a very weak next to last Buffalo run defense needs coming at them. The Patriots rushing offense and rushing defense both had season-best performances last week all be it against the dreadful Jets, but are the Bills any better? - not much if at all I reckon They've lost 5 out of their last 6 including the last 3. QB Losman is currently 1-6 The pass defence has been a big Patriots weak point this season so an extra bonus is that one of the Bill's 2 star Wide receivers Eric Moulds has been suspended leaving only the one recognised threat Lee Evans for NE to cover. And just for TazaD who loves his weather factors ;) Tom Brady is a perfect 18-0 as a starting quarterback when the temperature is below 40 degrees...expected Sunday gametime temp 33 degrees:D NFL.com for me 6-00pm Sunday:ok All the best and here's hoping for as comfortable a win as last weeks venture on Seattle -7 (didn't have time to post or even watch Monday but just loved my "not looking at the score" one eyed squint scroll down through the play by play page Tuesday morning as every 2nd Eagles drive seemed to end with INT ret for TD .....anyone else admit to it...maybe just me that sad :lol )

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL-wk14 gazzy-I too made an impulse bet on Seattle :ok, and seeing the weather f/cast on Ch5 just before kick off (snow) I equalled it with a few quid on the under:@. I couldn't believe it missed by only 3pts.:( Oh and I got Sky+ now. Wonderful for all the late kick-offs.:nana

[TazaD]

Re: NFL-wk14 Goota be quick...passed bedtime!....Heading away for the w'end, but will hopefully be back with some comments that may (or may not!) be a little more insightful! :lol Will definately be playing the Dallas/KC under 43.5 Other than that, I only really like some 'obvious'/'public' big favs! (which worries me no end!) Carolina -5.5 Denver -14 Seattle -16 Like NE to win too, gazzyg, but would love a -3 for betting purposes. :ok

[thephysician]

Re: NFL-wk14 Finally had a chance to take a financial interest in this weeks games. Chicago @ Pittsburgh, Bears +7 (CanBet 1.87) This is going to be a low scoring game (the Over/Under is 30.5.), the Bears D is very solid, and the Steelers don't tend to do much in air (23rd in NFL), so won't score quickly on the Bears, who have a decent pass defence (2nd in NFL). Unlike last week where the Bengals have a weak D with a good O, this is the reverse, the Bears have a weak Offense and the strongest D in the NFL. The Steelers do need this one to keep in the hunt for so I expect them to scrape past in a low scoring game, but the Bears 7 points is value to me. Baltimore @ Denver, Broncos -14.5 (Betfair Evens) The Ravens are awful. No one likes to play at Mile High. I don't like long handicaps, but I'll make a play here. I'm not sure how the Ravens can get on the score board here, while the Broncos will just grind them down. I expect the score only to start to run up in the 3rd quarter once the Ravens Run Defence is ground down. San Francisco @ Seattle, Seahawks straight up (Betfair 1.06) I just like getting a 6% return on my money overnight... Cheers... I've also taken the Bengals (15) and Seahawks (12) in the Superbowl market... wish I'd kept my spread on the Bengals a little longer but never mind. Neither of these do I intend to keep until February, but I expect both prices to come in so I'll lay them off for a profit.

[equinoxx]

Re: NFL-wk14 I am not going for New England despite it looking pretty decent. My reasoning is because of how close their game was in week 8. This time Buffalo are at their ground with a lot of disapointment over the season burning within everyone involved (okay I am gettign a little bit scary with the analogy here but I think theres gonna be a big backlash tomorrow night after what happened with Miami last week!)

[TazaD]

Re: NFL-wk14 KC @ Dallas under 43.5 League: 4-11 under (Av. total 39.3...av. score 36.0) any away dog, off a SU win as home 3- dog, if opp was last a 3- dog. [KC] 1-5 under (Av. totao 43.4...av. score 37.7) if total 40+ League: 9-20-1 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 35.4) any home fav, off an ats loss as away 3- dog, if opp is off any ats win as a dog. [KC] (0-2 under this season) [0-8 under (Av. total 45.1...av. score 38.2) if total 40+] 2-10 under (Av. total 38.3...av. score 32.1!) if opp won ats as a home dog. 1-10 under (0-11 under this no...av. total 38.5...av. score 31.3!) if team is 7- fav. Dallas play strong D at home, allowing just 13.5 ppg...Their pass D is second only to Chicago, allowing just 5.77 ypp. KC will know that they will have more success moving the ball on the ground, which has been Dallas' weakness, but it will make for some long, time-consuming drives. Parcell's has said during the week that the best way to keep KC from scoring is to keep their offense off the field, so expect plenty of long, slow drives from Dallas as well. also.....IRVING, Texas (AP) - Bill Parcells put the Dallas Cowboys through a practice that was structured differently from all the other midweek workouts they've had this season....."I wanted to try to do a little something that I thought would help us in dealing with Kansas City's offense and defense," he said Wednesday. ".... ....translated means; "I want to stop them running, and be able to run ourselves". Carolina -5.5 & under 37.5 League: 8-2 (Av. win 11.6) home 7- fav, off a 14+ ats win as home 3- fav, if opp is off any ats win. [Caro] (2-0 this season) League: 1-11-1 (Av. loss 8.7) any away dog, off any ats win as away fav, if opp was last a 3- fav. [TB] also 3-10 under (Av. total 39.5...av. score 36.5) ...team av. score 13.9. 5 of 6 TB road games have been under this number, @ 31.8 ppg, but even more than that the thing that stands out is that when Tampa don't (can't!) run the ball, the don't score. In their 4 losses so far, they have rushed for; 84 yards @ Jets, lost 12-14 43 yards @ SF, lost 10-15 108 yards v. Chic, lost 10-13 & home to Carolina, they ran for just 44 yards and scored 14. It's no coincidence that Carolina have the 3rd best run D, allowing just 3.5 ypc...and, in the last 5 meetings, Carolina are 5-0, allowing TB to run for just 44, 46, 62, 89 and 60 yards. Seattle -16 Big spread, but the gap between these two teams is huge...in fact, I think the spread is lower than it should be because of the last meeting @ SF, which Seattle won by just 2 points....But, SF scored the last 13 points, and more importantly, Alex Smith wasn't @ QB! On the road this season, SF has lost by 39, 17, 35, 8 & 11. Smith has QB'ed in 5 games this season, they have lost by 39, 17, 25, 35 and 7 last week v. Arizona. He has 0 TD's, 8 INT's for a QB rating of 28.1! The SF D give up 35 ppg on the road, and their pass D is the worst in the NFL, allowing 8 ypp. Seattle won 34-0 at home last season as -10 favs. Playing for home field throughout the play-offs, Seattle will come out firing and put this one away early. Baltimore @ Denver over 40 Basing this on the same theory as the game @ Cinci 2 weeks ago...Baltimore D is surprisingly bad on the road, allowing 27ppg...30.4 if we take out the fact that Chicago scored just 10. Denver av. 29.2 ppg at home....Again, the 14.5 is a large spread to cover, so I'll go with the fact that Balt should only have to score 14+ to send this game over. As bad as they've been offensively, they have scored 14+ in 6 of their last 9...the 3 they didn't were against 2 of the best D lines in the game (Chic and Jax who are no's 4 and 5 for sacks...Denv just 27th), and Bollers first game back off a long lay-off. 40 should be well within reach here. Washington @ Arizona under 40.5 High total for Washington, as only 3 of their games have gone over this number all season. Their only deep threat, Santana Moss is questionable after leaving practice on Wednesday with a strained hamstring. Either way, I think they will be happy to pound the ball at a Cards D allowing 4.3 ypr, so plenty of running and short passing. Arizona will have trouble moving the ball on this strong Washington D. They have no running game, and the Washington pass D is one of the best in the business. Add that Arizona lost their Centre for this game, making an already shaky O-line worse still. They struggle big-time in the red-zone, scoring just 19 TD's to 35 FG's, which always helps the under.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: NFL-wk14

Gone for pretty much my maximum bet on Patriots(-4) v Bills

Is this New England?:$ :$

[TheRat]

Re: NFL-wk14

Is this New England?:$ :$

yes

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL-wk14 TB @ Carolina (under 36) A crunch divisional matchup that has Carolina has 6pts favourites, but I see a very close game with D dominating. The only way I can see this game reaching the over is if either team (most likely Carolina) opens a big lead forcing their opponents to open up on offence. If this happens TB will surely have to try and go to the air, which could lead to turnovers. NO @ Atlanta (-10.5) (monday) Depending on the result in the above match this is a huge game for Atlanta. They must win to stay in contention, and I think NO don't have it on either side of the ball to stop Schaub or his back-up et all. Washington (-4) @ Arizona Don't see why this is so close. I think the 'skins will surely win by at least a TD. I was also tempted by Oakland at the NY Jets, but..............oh sod it I'm also taking Oakland(-3) to beat NYJ. There aren't going to be too many occassions this year when we're not the 'dog, so why not. Oh and I too agree about NE which is a little worrying.:tongue2 I was a little scared by the huge handicaps this week tbh.

[TheRat]

Re: NFL-wk14 What you saying about Detroit V Green Bay? Detroit not won at Green Bay for 14 yrs! But Detroit have already beaten Green Bay this season, but it was the opening game of the season, it may have not been a fair reflection. Detroit 3.3 compared to GB 1.37, so maybe Detroit have some value? but they have lost 13 in a row - one of the worst ever records! Additionally, the Lions have lost 33 of their last 37 road games, including 16 of the last 17 against NFC North opponents. (from NFL.com) Any thoughts just before the game?

[mattsthebest]

Re: NFL-wk14 Surely Brett Favre is due a big game after his recent performances of late. He's been saying in the local papers that he is going to try and improve his decision making, after recent games where he's seemed to be forcing passes that just aren't there - giving away some good winning positions. Personally I can't understand this line of -6.5 and in some places -7.5 for Green Bay. Both teams are crap and Green Bay have been very ordinary of late so I'm struggling to understand how the Packers get an almost TD handicap. Seems very fishy to me, so maybe the books know something that I don't, which leads me to side with the Packers -6.5. Small stakes as both teams suck, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit win this SU. But as I mentioned before, Brett Favre is due a good game on the frozen tundra, while Detroit really having nothing to play for and will find motivation difficult on the cold hard Lambeau field. :hope

[TheRat]

Re: NFL-wk14 I too have gone with the handicap of 6.5 in the end Good luck Matt! :hope

[gazzyg]

Re: NFL-wk14

Gone for pretty much my maximum bet on Patriots(-4) v Bills Every bit as comfortable as last weeks Seattle -7 :D 30 degrees - Brady time ! :clap That boy must have learnt how to play in a fridge. Perfect 19-0 as a starting quarterback when the temperature is below 40. Very dominant performance...these injury recovering guys might not be out of the final shake up yet....much as I hate admitting it ( I'm a sucker for the Colts type flair) this is still a very good team with a lot of guts.