Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury

[bowles10]

The highlight of the Newbury meeting, Gold cup pretenders try to slog their way around Newbury. The players are: Trabolgan has had 11 starts & only finished out of 1st 2 twice when falling once & PU once. Won the R&SA NOvices chase at Cheltenham beating Comply or die 3L. Acts on any ground but must shoulder top weight round here. Negative is that the horse has never carried more than 11-7 & never ran over more than 3 miles. The extra 2 furlongs may be its downfall. Comply or Die had had 13 starts & won 6 of those. Was favourite for the scottish National (4m 1f) but didnt stay, eventually being PU. Has won 1st time out in previous 2 years - goes well fresh & takes 5lb off Trabolgan for a 3L beating at Cheltenham. Has the top Saturday combination - Johnson/Pipe/Murphy, interestingly enough Pipe dropped out 3 runners today which meant Trabolgan carries the welterweight so maybe thats the clue. Cornish Rebel has won 6 of 11 starts & 1st time out last 2 years also. Record at Newbury reads 3 runs / 3 wins so clearly likes the track. Ruby has chosen this from 3 Nicholls horses. With his horses coming back to form, this looks an ideal bet. Is 4lb worse off with Comply or die from the Cheltenham race, therefore needs to show its stamina & course preference to get past that one. of the others, King Harald is a gutsy animal who had a hard race LTO at Cheltenham but was still in lead approaching the last fence & ended up 4th, will improve for that run & will be thereabouts again as long its jumping holds up. Run For Paddy comes from the Mark Pitman stable which has has good success this season, won nicely 1st time out at Huntingdon stealing a race with a great display of jumping. Inca Trail finished in 5th that day but franked the form winning when dropped in class. This is a big price at the mo on Betfair (75.0) & i'll be after place money in the morning. My top three would be : 1. Cornish rebel (10.5 at Betfair - massive price IMO) 2. Comply or die 3. Trabolgan with KIng Harald & Run for Paddy running big races.

[kevshat]

Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury I'm going to take an each way chance on Distant Thunder. Hopefully it was just a case of something going wrong last time out rather than it not being good enough and if that is the case and the horse has recovered from it which you'd assume it would have if it is entered to run then it comes into the race on a fair mark. Distant Thunder each way at 14/1 for me.