Racing Chat - Thursday 3rd April

[The Brigadier]

The first day of the three day Grand National meeting starts in predicted glorious sunshine and with the ground no doubt heavily watered.

1.45

A good start to the meeting with my pick being Harry Fry's GIDLEIGH PARK who can be backed each way here. He wouldn't want the ground too dry (he has been pulled out before on good ground) but I feel sure the clerk of the course would have instructed plenty of water to be put on for the start of the meeting which is currently good to soft. The pick beat subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Caldwell Potter at Windsor last time and having missed Cheltenham should be coming here a fresh horse and looks the value each way bet.

1 point each way @ 11/2 Bet365

2.20

Having gone in head first on Luamaba at 6/4 at the six day stage I'm already well behind on the race with that one surprisingly (especially as his trainer Nicky Henderson was telling all he was going for this race last weekend) missing out the race now has an open look about it and at the current prices I'll take a chance with Gordon Elliot's WENDROCK who shaped well in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham 23 days ago when 6th (beaten 7 1/2L) to the re-opposing Puturhandstogether. On 6lb better terms he looks each way value to small stakes. Keep an eye on hurdling newcomer Coconut Grove at a monster price also for a shrewd outfit.

1/2 point each way @ 11/1 Bet365

2.55

No stand outs here with the highest rated actually the rank outsider in Djelo who ran so badly at Cheltenham. Grey Dawning is probably the most likely winner having missed Cheltenham and bouncing back to form at Kelso but I'll take a chance with Lucinda Russell's AHOY SENOR who always runs well here with form figures of 113223 including runner up in this race for the last two years. His trainer was actually quite bullish of him running well following a wind operation last time out in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but he crashed out seven from home and back on his happy stomping ground is worth chancing each way with (hopefully) all eight standing their ground.

1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill

3.30

It will be great for racing if the unbeaten (when completing) under rules Constitution Hill was to win this but watching back his victory in this race two years ago he was hardly spectacular in beating the then 10-y-o Sharjah (OR 157) and Zanayir (159). He may still be too good for these but at odds on he wouldn't be for me and it's a no bet race.

4.05

A maximum field of thirty go to post for the Foxhunters and I'll leave this to our hunter chase expert @Darran who will no doubt have strong opinions on the race.

4.40

The best betting race of the day in my opinion is this fourteen runner 2M handicap chase named after Red Rum. I'm actually pretty sweet on one who finished last of 4 finishers (beaten some 47L) at Chepstow last time out! The horse in question is last year's winner SANS BRUIT who I backed in this race last year when given a peach of a ride from the front by Bryony Frost to win by a cosy 4L. His form has fallen apart since but because of that he finds himself back on the identical handicap mark. Harry Cobden takes over from Frost and as the only real out and out front runner in the race it would be no shock were he to get out in front, grab the rail and whizz around this tight track. He might fall in a heap two out but I'm pretty sure we'll get a good run for our money and although the initial odds are a bit stingy he's worth backing each way. I do fear Primoz who was backed off the boards at Cheltenham only to be inconvenienced by a standing start and looks a big threat.

1 point each way @ 13/2 Hills (4 places)

5.15

Day one finishes with a competitive  twenty runner bumper for mares. My shortlist comprises of favourite Seo Linn, Charisma Cat and JACKIE HOBBS. All three hold decent chances but its the latter who appeals most (especially as he's currently the biggest price of the trio). Harry Derham's mare is unbeaten in a point to point and two bumpers looking smart when coasting home at Ascot in February.

1 point each way @ 8/1 AK Bets (4 places)

 

[WEIGHTWATCHER]

Morning all.

As you may have seen from a previous post I am now breaking down selections into MAIN bets which I feel may be strong and possible VALUE BETS which will fall into the "not so strong / possible chance" category.

These are mine for Day One of Aintree which all fall into the possible VALUE BET category:

Aintree 2.20  LIVE CONTI @ 11/2 (hills)                                                                                                                                AVIEMORE e/w @ 50/1  (3 places) **                                                                                                          ** see Ante Post Selections thread.

Live Conti has both class and probable ground question marks to answer but is almost certainly a danger to PUTURHANDSTOGETHER if addressing those points. Aviemore has not done nothing wrong in it's last two runs but only probably merits small each way consideration.

Aintree 4.05  BENNYS KING e/w @ 18/1  (hills)  5 places

Grand old warrior now 14 years young and runner up of this race the last two years, ground will not be ideal but retains enthusiasm judged on last time out victory and could be third time lucky for the veteran of the race.

Aintree 4.40  RATH GAUL HILL @ 12/1                                                                                                                                GALUNGGUNG e/w @ 33/1 (generally)  4 places

Great race but tricky puzzle that I don't really want to be putting up main selections in any more unless they are REALLY fancied. Both these have a decent shot though, Rath Gaul Hill has been taking advantage of some nice handicap marks to notch three in a row and remains fairly well treated. Galunggung could be interesting off it's mark at certainly a tempting each way price.

Aintree 5.15  JACKIE HOBBS @ 15/2 (generally)

Lottery finale with Irish raider SEO LINN and CHARISMA CAT very high on the shortlist along with selection. It is only a gut feeling that the selection may see out the trip best with ground unlikely to be an issue for it and the unbeaten record so far may possibly stay in tact.

With three other meetings in UK and Ireland not yet reviewed there may well be a few more selections that I will post up if necessary.

Enjoy day one of Aintree and be lucky.

* French selections are now posted for anyone who is interested.  

    

 

   

Edited Wednesday at 11:29 PM by WEIGHTWATCHER
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