Value Estimations System

[Bertik]

Re: Value Estimations System

This is something I'm using in my real bets' date=' but this is basicaly [b']'paper system', as it doesn't treat any other factor than stats (team news, motivation, etc) This estimations system calculates probabilities of all three outcomes (home win, draw, away win). The criterion for the bet is value between 1.05 and 1.20 (values higher than 1.20 won't be observed as it point to unrealistic estimations of percentage). Calculations include: 1. Overall record. 2. Home/Away record. 3. Recent Overall form (last 8). 4. Recent Home/Away form (last 5). 5. Last 10 meetings if available (irrelevant when happened). 6. Last 5 corresponding meetings. Key formulas: (units_staked=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) value=perc*odds Starting bank is 1000$, units are 1-10 with one decimal place, max bet equals 5% of bankroll. Odds will be from Ladbrokes - fixed odds only. System will be tested on English Championship (at least 10 rounds have to be played). Wish me luck.

Hi Key formulas: (units_stake=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) perc = my sugestion percentage? My example match Nhl Florida - Ny Rangers odds 2=2.50 percentage 45% to win Ny Rangers vallue= 112.5 (units stake=((45-1)/(2.50-1)+45)*100 ???? ((35/1.50)+45)*100 (23.33+45)*100 68.33*100 units stake= 6833 ??? Explain it ot me please.... My language english is not god...I am Czech republik Very me interested this example mathematicaly...... Thank you to everyone for expliciotine bye Bertik :D

[Djordje]

Re: Value Estimations System

Hi Key formulas: (units_stake=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) perc = my sugestion percentage? My example match Nhl Florida - Ny Rangers odds 2=2.50 percentage 45% to win Ny Rangers vallue= 112.5 (units stake=((45-1)/(2.50-1)+45)*100 ???? ((35/1.50)+45)*100 (23.33+45)*100 68.33*100 units stake= 6833 ??? Explain it ot me please.... My language english is not god...I am Czech republik Very me interested this example mathematicaly...... Thank you to everyone for expliciotine bye Bertik :D

one mistake Bertik : 45%=0.45 and not 45, so units_staked would be 8.33, which looks like normal to me, and you have value bet ;)

[Bertik]

Re: Value Estimations System

one mistake Bertik : 45%=0.45 and not 45' date= so units_staked would be 8.33, which looks like normal to me, and you have value bet ;)

8.33 it is 8.33/10? (1000 bank 5%=50) 8.33/10 = 41.65 EU? or units_staked = 8.33 Euro Thanks Djordje Bye Bertik:$

[Djordje]

Re: Value Estimations System

8.33 it is 8.33/10? (1000 bank 5%=50) 8.33/10 = 41.65 EU? or units_staked = 8.33 Euro Thanks Djordje Bye Bertik:$

Hi again Bertik yes, 8.33 equals 8.33/10, that's right when it comes to money (euros, dollars, whatever) I used 5% as maximum bet in this system, but 5% of current bank. If current bank was 1000, than 8.33/10 would be probably 41.65, haven't calculated, but if my bank went to 1500 or 800 after some time, than 8.33 wouldn't be 41.65 anymore. ;)

[Bertik]

Re: Value Estimations System

Hi again Bertik yes, 8.33 equals 8.33/10, that's right when it comes to money (euros, dollars, whatever) I used 5% as maximum bet in this system, but 5% of current bank. If current bank was 1000, than 8.33/10 would be probably 41.65, haven't calculated, but if my bank went to 1500 or 800 after some time, than 8.33 wouldn't be 41.65 anymore. ;)

very Thanks Djordje Bert

conv_60.zip