Djordje Posted November 7, 2005 Author Share Posted November 7, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System Good one, wizard ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 8, 2005 Share Posted November 8, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System .... like the 'wizard' title.... pity I wasn't one or I would be conjuring up more big priced winners.It's a poor British coupon this week Djordje. 33 coupon slots taken up by Nationwide Conference and North and South. Up to now I like the look of Grays Athletic, Morecambe and Stevenage Borough. Of the Scots my picks would be, Cowdenbeath(a) Berwick R(a)Morton(a) and Peterhead(h) but will look more closely nearer the weekend.Be lucky!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System bet#25 Burnley vs Leicester Draw @3.00 7.5/10 (47.46$) bet#26 Coventry vs Ipswich Away @2.80 10.0/10 (63.29$) bet#27 Crewe vs Stoke Away @2.75 3.8/10 (24.05$) bet#28 Sheff Utd vs Milwall Away @7.00 2.1/10 (13.29$) bet#29 Watford vs Sheff Wed Away @4.50 2.5/10 (15.82$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System .... great to see you up and running again Djordje, and equally good to see your system ideas on this weekend's matches.I'll put my neck out and see those matches as:- 1, X, X, 1, 1 but will be interesting once again to see how they feature.Be lucky my friend!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 17, 2005 Author Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System :( I know these bets look stupid, but system is system and rules are rules. ;) Btw, I really like Ipswich this week, those long shots are another two possibilities with small stakes. Watford are too heavy favorite in my opinion, and Sheffield Utd or anyone else @1.40 in this league at this stage of the season is simply not my cup of tea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 17, 2005 Share Posted November 17, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System ..... I suppose we are not a million miles apart with the first three selections Djordje, but I would ride with Sheffield Utd with a record of 8-1-0 against a Millwall side with 2-3-4 and Watford are too slick an outfit with 4-2-3 to outgun Wednesday showing 1-4-4.Maybe with 4 away draws to their credit I could see maybe a draw, but interesting......mmmm !:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System ..... just been thinking Djordje, I don't think that I am a big fan of value betting. It has always struck me as betting against the grain.I know there are distinct advantages to be had with better prices, but the way I see it, the selected teams chosen to oppose the tried and tested, all have to win first before the increased odds are any good to you.Maybe because it's the way I have been brought up with the 'old' school that I view it this way, I just don't feel comfortable say backing Millwall to beat Sheffield United.Common sense or maybe stubborness tells me to swim with the 'flow'!Cheers.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 18, 2005 Author Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System aye merlin, it's the matter of approach I bet with relatively small ammounts of money and I'm in profit so far with my single bets. Looking for value (good prices) is the most important thing in betting in my opinion, much more important than looking for winners. As long as you bet singles only. I have pretty poor hit rate to be honest (around 39%), but thanks to big prices my yield is around 8% and I'm sattisfied with it. But to be honest, if I was to put money on 4-5 fold, I would never put Milwall there. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 18, 2005 Share Posted November 18, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System I see it from your side of the fence also, particularly when you mention a yield of around 8%. The strike rate is not massive, but when you stop to consider the strike rate at the larger prices, I suppose there has got to be some satisfaction there.Never really viewed it from that perspective, so maybe you are beginning to win me over.Good luck with the weekend's bets!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adythom Posted November 19, 2005 Share Posted November 19, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System hi djordje, how often do you refine or tweak you system? I'm thinking in actual life more than for this thread of course! do you run the same games through your system with slightly altered ponders to compare as you go along? or have you finished experimenting and are happy as it is? congratulations on your successes by the way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 19, 2005 Share Posted November 19, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System .... I see neither of us were right with the Sheffield Utd game Djordje but I got it right with Watford.I note that there were a number of matches posponed in Scotland due to the weather!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 19, 2005 Author Share Posted November 19, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System bet#25 Burnley vs Leicester Draw @3.00 7.5/10 (47.46$) :( bet#26 Coventry vs Ipswich Away @2.80 10.0/10 (63.29$) :( bet#27 Crewe vs Stoke Away @2.75 3.8/10 (24.05$) :D bet#28 Sheff Utd vs Milwall Away @7.00 2.1/10 (13.29$) :sad bet#29 Watford vs Sheff Wed Away @4.50 2.5/10 (15.82$) :( :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 19, 2005 Author Share Posted November 19, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System stake [$] 941.44 profit [$] 167.95 yield 10.94 starting bank 1000.00$ current bank 1167.95$ strike rate 0.48 average odds 3.24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 19, 2005 Author Share Posted November 19, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System hi djordje, how often do you refine or tweak you system? I'm thinking in actual life more than for this thread of course! do you run the same games through your system with slightly altered ponders to compare as you go along? or have you finished experimenting and are happy as it is? congratulations on your successes by the way! Hi adythom I altered ponders after a while, and I think I'll need to do it again. It proved that there were too many away wins as output of this estimations during last year, and after I gave hosts 5% advantage I'm thinking for last few months to rise it to 7.5% as next step. But problem of draw percentage is the biggest problem for now, and I still don't have solution for it. Will try to solve it when/if I develope software for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 21, 2005 Author Share Posted November 21, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System bet#30 Hull vs Southampton Draw @3.20 6.4/10 (37.37$) bet#31 QPR vs Preston Away @2.80 6.6/10 (38.54$) bet#32 Sheff Wed vs Plymouth Away @2.75 5.7/10 (33.29$) bet#33 C Palace vs Coventry Away @5.00 4.7/10 (27.45$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 21, 2005 Share Posted November 21, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System Wish you well with these Djordje, must be with you going for the value bets that tends to make me see some of these matches in a different light.The first two look X2 ish, and the last two I would go for the home win.But always interesting to read and study your selections.Be lucky!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 22, 2005 Author Share Posted November 22, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System bet#30 Hull vs Southampton Draw @3.20 6.4/10 (37.37$):nana bet#31 QPR vs Preston Away @2.80 6.6/10 (38.54$):D bet#32 Sheff Wed vs Plymouth Away @2.75 5.7/10 (33.29$):( bet#33 C Palace vs Coventry Away @5.00 4.7/10 (27.45$):( :$ stake [$] 1078.09 profit [$] 258.81 yield 18.19 starting bank 1000.00$ current bank 1258.81$ strike rate 0.48 average odds 3.26 Not bad day at all. 100$ in profit today ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 22, 2005 Share Posted November 22, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System Congrats on bets 30 and 31 bringing home the bacon Djordje.I always thought that you had the best chance with those as opposed to bets 32 and 33. Look forward to your next selections with interest.Cheers.:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 22, 2005 Author Share Posted November 22, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System thanks mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 24, 2005 Author Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System stake [$] 1078.09 profit [$] 258.81 yield 18.19 starting bank 1000.00$ current bank 1258.81$ strike rate 0.48 average odds 3.26 Not bad day at all. 100$ in profit today ;) correction :: yield=24.01% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 24, 2005 Author Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System 26.11.05. bet#34 Milwall vs Leeds Draw @3.20 5.1/10 (32.10$) bet#35 Plymouth vs Reading Draw @3.20 3.3/10 (20.77$) bet#36 Preston vs Watford Draw @3.20 5.3/10 (33.36$) 28.11.05. bet#36 Cardiff vs Ipswich Away @3.75 3.5/10 (22.03$) That's it for this weekend. Actually I like all of them, except Preston game maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 24, 2005 Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System Well Iv'e looked at three different systems Djordje, and strangely enough they all point to Preston as being your best chance this weekend!The consensus of opinion is Bet 34 Away win.Bet 35 Away win, and Bet 36(a) Draw.Not looked too much at the Monday game its a bit far away.Btw you have two Bet 36's.Be lucky young fella!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 24, 2005 Author Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System thanks merlin 28.11.05. bet#37 Cardiff vs Ipswich Away @3.75 3.5/10 (22.03$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted November 24, 2005 Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System hi djordje, could you please explain the following to me please???? bet#30 Hull vs Southampton Draw @3.20 6.4/10 (37.37$) what do the numbers mean?? (god i must come across as stupid on this, sorry):nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
callpane Posted November 24, 2005 Share Posted November 24, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System the numbers in the brackets i mean (37.37$) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 25, 2005 Author Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System the numbers in the brackets i mean (37.37$) Hi callpane 6.4/10 means 64% of the maximum bet, and max bet is 5% of curren bankroll. Starting bankroll was 1000$ And the number means 37.37$ :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 25, 2005 Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System .... Is that Serbian dollars then Djordje? Pardon the ignorance but I am not familiar with world currency except Singapore and US dollars. So just how much is a Serbian dollar in UK terms? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 25, 2005 Author Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System We actually have dinars here in Serbia. Those $s are American.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted November 25, 2005 Author Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System Re $$$$ I clearly stated that this system is 'paper system', so it's really irrelevant which currency is used in this system - dollars, pounds, euros... Unfortunately I don't have $1000 US as a starting bank, so the most important parameter are units here (1-10). I also stated that 90% of these bets are my real bets, and again unfortunately they're not 37.37$ but they are surely 6.4/10. Whatever it means for me - it was 64% of my maximum bet in mentioned game. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 25, 2005 Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Value Estimations System OK no problem there Djordje, I wasn't questioning 1000$, just interested to know the comparison between currencies being discussed.So now I know that you have dinars, how does this compare with UK pounds?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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