Value Estimations System

[Djordje]

This is something I'm using in my real bets, but this is basicaly 'paper system', as it doesn't treat any other factor than stats (team news, motivation, etc) This estimations system calculates probabilities of all three outcomes (home win, draw, away win). The criterion for the bet is value between 1.05 and 1.20 (values higher than 1.20 won't be observed as it point to unrealistic estimations of percentage). Calculations include: 1. Overall record. 2. Home/Away record. 3. Recent Overall form (last 8). 4. Recent Home/Away form (last 5). 5. Last 10 meetings if available (irrelevant when happened). 6. Last 5 corresponding meetings. Key formulas: (units_staked=((perc-1)/(odds-1)+perc)*100) value=perc*odds Starting bank is 1000$, units are 1-10 with one decimal place, max bet equals 5% of bankroll. Odds will be from Ladbrokes - fixed odds only. System will be tested on English Championship (at least 10 rounds have to be played). Wish me luck.

[Djordje]

Re: Value Estimations System 15.10.05. Coventry vs C Palace home @2.60, 3.9/10 (19.50$) Crewe vs Luton draw @3.25, 2.6/10 (13.00$) Derby vs Stoke away @3.40 , 2.1/10 (10.50$) Norwich vs Milwall draw @3.50, 2.3/10 (11.50$)