Racing Chat - Saturday 26th October

[The Brigadier]

Just the ten races on terrestrial TV today and here's my thoughts -

Cheltenham 1.10

The first of five races from the ITV team at Cheltenham today is the 2M 4F novices’ handicap chase in which we have a field of thirteen going to post. The Irish (surprise, surprise!) have a good record at this meeting and it’s one of their five in Marv Michael who appeals most. Henry De Bromhead’s six-year-old made a winning fencing debut at Kilbeggan in September when making all, jumping well to come home 7L to the good. An initial mark of 128 looks workable. Keep an eye on the two chasing debutants Lord Of Thunder from the Tizzard stable and Doughmore Bay from the in form Emma Lavelle stable.

 

MARV MICHAEL 1 point each way @ 6-1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

1.30 Doncaster

The opener at Doncaster is a listed race for two-year-olds to be run over 6F and eight will run on soft ground. There’s plenty of soft ground form on offer and a case can be made for most but the one that catches my eye is the Clive Cox trained Fast Track Harry who made a winning racecourse debut at Newbury in the mud 36 days ago. Nibbled at in the market going off at 9/1 he got the better of the William Haggas newcomer Almeraq by just under a length and that form has been franked since by that one running out a easy winner at Yarmouth when very well backed since. The chestnut son of Harry Angel will need to step up again but has plenty of scope for improvement and looks a good each way bet.

 

FAST TRACK HARRY 1 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 1.45

Just five have declared for this class 2 novice hurdle run over 3M with Irish trainers having four of the field. John C McConnell’s five-year-old Intense Approach ran a fine second to Flying Fortune in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow earlier this month and this consistent five-year-old look the one they all have to beat under Harry Cobden. Gavin Cromwell’s Millforce is a lightly raced improver who may chase him home for a one-two for the Irish.

 

INTENSE APPROACH 1 point win @ 5/2 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 2.05

A big field of seventeen sprinters have declared for this class 2 5F handicap. There’s plenty of soft ground form on offer and the best value may well lie with last year’s winner Aberama Gold who is 11lb lower than when winning 12 months ago. It can’t be soft enough for the seven-year-old who’s shown more than enough in his recent efforts to suggest that his turn may well soon.

 

ABERAMA GOLD 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Cheltenham 2.20

A decent sized field of fourteen go to post for this 3M 1F class 2 handicap chase. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his string in great shape at present and it’s his runner Broadway Boy that catches the eye. We haven’t seen him since disappointing at Aintree but his form figures here read 1112 and he won first time out last season. He appears to have plenty in his favour and this second season chaser can take this en route to bigger targets later in the season under Sam Twiston-Davies. Top weight Doses He Know represents the very much in form Kim Bailey stable and has had his wind done since we last saw him. He’s worth a close look in the market.

 

BROADWAY BOY 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Doncaster 2.40

The feature race of the day is the final Group one two-year-old race in the UK for the season in the one mile William Hill Futurity Trophy. The Godolphin runner Anno Domini and the Gosden’s Detain are both promising sorts who have looked smart in winning a brace each but both have yet to encounter soft ground (in the case of the latter he’s only raced on the all-weather). The confident pick has to be the James Owen trained Wimbledon Hawkeye who is proven on soft and has the best form in the race. He followed up an excellent second in the Acomb Stakes at York to current Derby favourite Lion In Winter with a win from the re-opposing Royal Playright in the Royal Lodge on soft ground. I do believe if he was trained by a ‘sexier’ trainer he would be considerably shorter than his current quote of 7/2.

 

WIMBLEDON HAWKEYE 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.55

The 3M Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdler Qualifier has attracted thirteen staying hurdlers and has a wide open look about it. It may pay to take a chance on the Gary and Josh Moore trained top weight Botox Has who has a touch of class about him and although not seen for 182 days has a very good record fresh which reads 11F21 with the 2 coming in this very race two years ago. Caoilin Quinn’s 3lb claim will help in reducing his weight and he can run well each way. Irish raider The Wallpark is on a four timer for Gordon Elliott and looks the biggest threat.

 

BOTOX HAS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 3.10

The ground is likely to be very testing for the latest renewal of the 7F BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes for two-year-olds with the going stick reading as low as I’ve known at 3.0 earlier in the week. William Haggas’s Yaroogh will have no problems with conditions as he ran out a comfortable 3 1/2L winner on heavy ground at Chantilly last time out in heavy ground. The other horse at the head of the market Benevento has only raced on good ground so is overlooked for that reason. I feel we may get both of the front ones beaten here and the selection is Hugo Palmer’s Make You Smile. He impressed on his racecourse debut when running out a 2 3/4L winner of a novice stakes contest over course and distance 35 days ago on heavy ground and that form has already been boosted by the third winning by 6 1/2L since. He looks good each way value under Harry Davies.

 

MAKE YOU SMILE 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Cheltenham 3.30

The 2M 87 yard (Old) Masterson Holdings Hurdle has attracted eight runners and looks set to go to Ireland with Gavin Cromwell’s Bottler’secret who despite having to shoulder a 8lb penalty can outclass these. A dual winner on the level he took well to hurdling last season when winning Grade 3 and Grade 2 events at Naas and Fairyhouse and finished the season with a good 1 1/2L second in the Grade 1 Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown from the top class filly Kargese who had finished runner up at Cheltenham and Aintree in the top four-year-old contests. Back in fifth (beaten 14 1/2L) at Punchestown was Harry Derham’s Givemefive and although 5lb better off looks held. Bottler’secret is a confident selection.

 

BOTTLER’SECRET 1 point win @ Evens bet365

 

Newbury 3.45

Just six run in this 1M 4F Group 3 BetVictor St Simon Stakes. Al Aasy was given a strange ride last time out at Ascot with jockey Cieran Fallon letting his rivals get away from him before putting the seven-year-old into the race far too late with the stewards enquiring into his ride. He still finished ahead of two of his rivals today in Salt Bay and Gods Window and he can bounce back to winning ways at a track where his form figures are 114121. John & Thady Gosden’s three-year-old Danielle will relish the conditions and looks the one to chase him home although on official rating she does have 11lb to find.

 

AL AASY 1 Pont win @ 5/4 bet365

 

[Darran]

Not so great in The Everest, but got the 18/1 winner of the Caulfield Cup with 2 of the other 3 selections finishing 2nd and 4th. Onto the Cox Plate which is at 7.10am at Moonee Valley and you will be able to watch it on Racing.com or bookie websites

 

Mr Brightside - Just missed it on winning this last year and connections have been basing his year around winning this ever since. Has had quite a few races with Pride Of Jenni and did beat her in the G1 Makybe Diva over 1600m at Flemington last month, but the mare was in front of him over 1600m in the G2 Feehan a couple of weeks later. His prep run came in the Caulfield Stakes when he finished 2^nd to Deny Knowledge who ran in the style of Pride Of Jenni in building up a big lead which he couldn't run down. Will be ready to peak, but I do just have a small query about him at fast run 2040m and if he will see it out strongly.

 

Prognosis - Japanese raider who has won 7 of his 15 starts and finished placed a further 5 times. I can understand why he is favourite as his form is very strong especially his form around last year's winner Romantic Warrior and he ought to have been him in the Queen Eilzabeth Cup at Sha Tin in April. The problem is he can be slow away and whilst he is going to get a strong tempo to aim at, that is not ideal round here. He also doesn't seem to help himself in his races at times and doesn't have an instant turn of foot. If this race was being run at Flemington I would probably have tipped him, but I think the track is against him and how he runs his races and for that reason I am going to look elsewhere.

 

Kovalica - Was a surprise to see him in the final list of runners as he isn't unfancied at a big price for the Melbourne Cup, but this race has been used as a prep before and this looks the case here especially with prize money for even finishing last (certainly not saying he will) being $75000.

 

Royal Patronage - Ex American horse who has run 4 solid races in Oz including winning a G2 at Randwick in September over 1400m. Not sure he will be quite up to this though.

 

Docklands - Clearly been trained with this race in mind this season by Harry Eustace and he's certainly got a top 3 chance I think. The 2^nd in the Queen Anne behind Charyn was a good effort although he does have a very good record over the straight mile at Ascot and this test is very different. I didn't think his run in the Juddmonte was that bad either. If City Of Troy was running in this he would be odds on to win so finishing 11.5L behind him wasn't bad in the context of this race. I'd still be a little surprised if he was good enough to win, but he can go well.

 

Pride Of Jenni - It is great having her in a race because she offers something you don't usually get in a Group 1. We know she is going to go tearing off in front and it is just a case of how the jockey's in behind play it. They got it very wrong in the Queen Elizabeth at Randwick in April where is built up a huge advantage and never looked like being caught with Via Sistina closest to her at the finish 6.5L behind. I thought she ran really well last Saturday in the King Charles III when she actually missed the break and was the forced to stay out wide by an outsider. She looked like she would be overhauled in the straight, but she really battled strongly and was only beaten 0.75L in the end. I do wonder if that might have left a mark, but she is such a tough horse and it isn't unusual for a horse in Australia to do the 7 day back up that actually it might not make a difference. She is going to make it a test and a fascinating race.

 

Via Sistina - Caused drama on Tuesday when a leg bandage came loose and she tripped over it causing James McDonald to come off. She then did 3 more laps of the track and was going pretty quick in the footage I saw. The initial thinking was that she wasn't going to run, but everything has gone well for her since and she looks set to take the line-up. Clearly you won't know for certain until the race itself, but if the trainer and the very strict vets are happy for her to race then I am happy to think she has a huge chance. A year ago she was 2^nd to King Of Steel in the Champions Stakes which is obviously very strong form. She then won the Ranvet at Rosehill on her Aussie debut in March before that 2^nd to Pride Of Jenni at Randwick. She was good over 1400m when winning the G1 Winx Stakes before completely bombing out in the Makybe Diva behind Mr Brightside. Hard to know what happened there, but she bounced straight back to beat Caulfield Cup 2^nd Buckaroo in the Turnbull at Flemington. The Caulfield Cup winner was also back in 4th. She has long been my idea of the Cox Plate winner and whilst Tuesday morning initially put me off I'm more inclined to think it won't make a difference now.

 

Broadsiding - 3yos get a huge weight allowance and whilst he was one place behind Evaporate at Caulfield last time he does look the main 3yo hope. He was odds on in the Guineas, but the tempo didn't suit him as he had to settle in 10^th place. The horse who lead won and he clocked the best final 200m in the race to finish 4th. Stepping up to 2000m should suit although again the track isn't always the easiest to come from a long way back so whilst he is a possible winner he won't be carrying my money.

 

Evaporate - Is 3/3 here although never over further than 1600m. Ran well in the Caulfield Guineas when 3^rd last time and wouldn't be a total shock off his low weight if he runs a big race given how well he runs the track. He looks like he should stay.

 

Verdict - Pride Of Jenni is going to play catch me if you can and it wouldn't be a total surprise if she did make all, but I just think the jockey's will be more aleart to her getting too far out in front. I fully understand why Prognosis is favourite and he might well win, but I think he's too short in the betting given his running style so I am going to oppose him with Via Sistina. She brings top class UK G1 form into the race and she has performed to just as high a level in Australia so far as well so there is no doubt about her reporforming her UK form. Tuesday morning wasn't ideal, but all seems well and if everyone is happy with her then I am happy to back her and give Chris Waller another Cox Plate victory.

 

Via Sistina @ 16/5 with Bet365