Racing chat -tuesday 16th July

[richard-westwood]

4.00 bev

Ran this race through the edge calculation and the stand out results were 

2  7.8%.  12.75 tiss. 18.0 avail edge 1.4

6.11.76 %.  8.5 tiss.  15 avail  edge 1.76

14. 6.86%.  14.5 tiss. 19 avail. Edge 1.30 

Just the one qualifier ....horse 6 with 11.76 probability (over 10% cut off)...14/1 with bet365 so I'll back it Ew with 4 places on offer .....STALLONE  14/1 

Like I said it's the long term performance I'm interested in ...if your constantly backing horses at bigger odds than their implied chance then you should ALWAYS come out on top in the long run ....

this is a side project so doesn't effect my normal ratings which will be separate 

I mean that fav last night had a 6 % probability of winning 16/1 tiss and was available at 7/2 .....ridiculous ....and it finished 5th or 6th ....so it's a guide to whether the horse is purely value or not 

Anything over 1.2 is Interesting but purely for strike rate I'm only considering over 10% probability rated ....I might adjust that to 12 or even 14 later but like today if I set at 12 and today's 11.76 wins then you'd have scrubbed the bet and lost a good winner ....so I think the 10% is a good benchmark 

Edited July 16 by richard-westwood

[Striker]

6.30 Kempton-Beauty Nation @ 11-4 with Bet 365

Her first race but want to take on the form horses