Lincoln - Saturday 23rd March

[The Brigadier]

Now that Cheltenham has been put to bed we can concentrate (well for a day or two anyway!) on the real stuff as flat turf racing returns this weekend with the Lincoln two day meeting at Doncaster.

The ground on Town moor this weekend is currently soft (not surprisingly) and as they are due some more of the wet stuff on Wednesday and bits and pieces towards race day it’s a fair assumption that the ground will be soft still come the weekend.

Here’s a rundown of the top thirty in the handicap currently (note that only twenty two can run).

 

MIGRATION (David Menuisier) 8 9-13

Last year’s winner who loves the mud. 4lb higher than last year but showed very little in three runs since. Not without claims if in the same form as a year ago and useful 3lb claimer Paddy Bradley already booked.

 

JOHAN (Jack Channon) 7 9-8

Has an excellent record fresh winning first time out the last two years including this very race in 2022 off of a handicap mark of 4lb lower than today’s under Silvestre Sousa who’s already provisionally booked to ride.A live each way contender with conditions to suit.

 

RAADOBARG (George Boughey) 6 9-7

Ran a good third in Monday’s Irish Lincoln at The Curragh (1 1/4L behind Chazzesmee). Yet to win in nine starts for Boughey but run plenty of good races in defeat on soft ground which obviously suits. Unlikely to run here apparently.

 

MOSTABSHIR (John & Thady Gosden) 4 9-5

Lightly raced grey from a big yard that won this race for same connections with Haaqeey in 2021. Not as exciting a profile as that one however and is un tested on soft ground. Stated by trainers on Wednesday as unlikely to run due to the soft ground conditions.

 

AWAAL (Simon & Ed Crisford) 5 9-4

Runner up to Migration in this race last year, beaten 1 1/4L and is now 4lb better off with that rival. Adores the mud and subsequently ran well when placed in Hunt Cup and Bunbury Cup. Forget his last run at Ascot as he was dreadfully drawn. A major player with Harry Davies booked.

 

LIBERTY LANE (Karl Burke) 4 9-4

Lightly raced who won a decent class 2 handicap on soft ground over course and distance at the St Leger meeting last September. Ground probably too fast on only subsequent run in Cambridgeshire. Been gelded since and looks a major player. Clifford Lee already booked.

 

THUNDER BALL (Paul & Oliver Cole) 4 9-3

Proven on soft ground and had a fruitful 2023 winning at Newbury and Goodwood rising 26lb in the process. Also ran 4th when 66/1 in Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. Useful 5lb conditional jockey Alec Voikhansky booked. Did need his first run last season.

 

THE GATEKEEPER (Charlie Johnstone) 5 9-2

Best on soft ground and finished off last season when a 25/1 winner of the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot’s Champions Day fixture. Has been raised 4lb for that victory and will racing off of a career high mark.

 

VETIVER (Andrew Balding) 4 9-0

Best runs have come on soft ground and is relatively lightly raced. This will be her eighth career start. Ended up last season with a good fifth in Balmoral Handicap to The Gatekeeper, beaten 2 3/4L and 4lb better off now. Each way claims if straight enough (did win by 5 1/2L on re-appearance as a three year old).

 

REVICH (Richard Spencer) 8 9-0

Two wins from ten runs last season came at Chester and Ayr. Ran 9th in this last year on his re-appearance when a 40/1 poke and 5lb higher now. Ground should be fine and Jason Hart booked.

 

BLUES EMPEROR (Johnny Murtagh) 5 8-13

Yet to race in Britain. A winner of good ground handicaps at Naas and The Curragh last season over a mile. Flopped on latest start in listed company in soft ground but has shown he handles the mud fine.

 

CHAZZESMEE (J A Stack) 6 8-13 (inc. 5lb penalty)

Landed a bit of a touch when winning the Irish Lincoln at The Curragh on Monday with Raadobarg back in third. If re-appearing here will have to carry a 5lb penalty but will be strip fit and loves soft ground. Plenty going for him if over what looked a hard enough race on Monday.

 

NAVAGIO (James Horton) 5 8-12

Ex Irish (trained by R P Cody) and joined James Horton at his new base in Newmarket. Soft ground suits well and was a winner of two soft ground races last season over a mile at Limerick and Gowran Park. 11lb higher than his last win which he won by a head in a five runner race in July. Mark looks high enough and has 238 day absence to overcome.

 

LATTAM (Julie Camacho) 5 8-11

Has joined Julie Camacho from William Haggas at the October horses-in-training sales for 50,000 guineas. Short head winner of the Irish equivalent to this first time out last season on bottomless ground. Has won first time out for the last two seasons now and if his capable trainer has freshened him up looks a interesting each way play.

 

DUTCH DECOY (Charlie Johnston) 7 8-9

Newmarket winner last July off of a 3lb lower mark than todays. That was his only victory in twelve outings although he dis perform well in defeat on a number of occasions. Soundly beaten in Lincoln consolation on the card a year ago. Hard to fancy much.

 

DRAGON ICON (Roger Varian) 4 8-9

Two from 5 on the all weather and finished fifth of 9 in the German 2000 Guineas only start on turf. Badly drawn last time and ran an eye catching race. More likely to be of interest if rocking up at All Weather Finals day the following weekend.

 

FARHH TO SHY (George Margarson) 6 8-8

Benoit De La Sayette already booked. 8lb higher now than when winning a soft ground Ascot handicap last May (also won at Yarmouth two months later off of a 4lb higher mark). Already beaten twice off of his current handicap mark and needs to step his game up once more.

 

GREATGADIAN (Roger Varian) 6 8-8

Arrives in good form from the all weather having finished runner up in two class 3 Newcastle handicaps already this month. Ran well when 6th in this last year, beaten 4 3/4L to Migration & Awaal. 8lb lower now so is effectively 12lb and 8lb better off with that pair and looks best of the big outsiders. Last year’s rider Adrian Keeley already booked.

 

MR PROFESSOR (Dominic Ffrench Davis) 5 8-8

A winner of just four of his 29 career starts including last September at Goodwood on soft ground. 5lb higher now but loves soft ground and David Egan already booked which is an upgrade on his usual rider Owen Lewis.

 

CHUZZLEWIT (Kevin Ryan) 4 8-8

Been busy on the all-weather this year winning at Newcastle last week from Greatgadian in first time blinkers. Not certain to confirm that form on 3lb worse terms and has definite questions to answer on soft ground (beat one home in a 22 runner handicap at York on his only run on soft ground)

 

MAJESTIC (Jack Channon) 6 8-7

Stable won this race in 2022 with the also entered Johan. Failed to win 2023 in eight attempts although ran well in defeat on occasions including when fourth in this race to Migration and Awaal (beaten 3 1/2L) and ending up with a creditable fourth in the Cambridgeshire. Channon in form and could hit the first six again.

 

PARLANDO (Ian Williams) 5 8-7

Been racing in Bahrain this spring, winning one of his four starts there under Gerard Mosse. That was on fast ground and although a winner, on his debut, on good to soft, is unlikely to have encountered ground as slow as this although he doesn’t look that badly treated despite a 5lb penalty. 5lb claiming apprentice Sean D Bowen already booked.

 

HIERONYMOUS (George Baker) 8 8-7

Fit from the all weather and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for winning at Kempton in February. Yet to win in seventeen attempts on the turf and looks better on a synthetic surface. Tough to fancy.

 

BET ME (George Boughey) 4 8-5

Two runs on all weather since joining Boughey from France although was previously trained by Richard Hannon over here. Looks best on soft ground with form figures of 131 and lightly raced enough to warrant a second look.

 

ONE NIGHT THUNDER (Gemma Tutty) 4 8-4

Trainer in good form. Had just the two starts for her having been bought for just 15,000 guineas last September. Showed he handles very soft ground when fourth at Newmarket on first run for Tutty last November. Last only subsequent run on all weather at 18/1 though.

 

SPIRIT GENIE (Jennie Candlish) 4 8-2

Winner of a seller on soft ground at Leicester last October and not disgraced when runner up on heavy in Newmarket handicap the following month (One Night Thunder back in fourth). Ground will suit but be a shock were he good enough.

 

ARKENDALE (Edward Bethell) 4 8-1

Soft ground winner of novice stakes at Thirsk last June before joining current trainer. Poor last run on heavy in first time cheek pieces and has been gelded since. More needed.

 

LIGHT SPEED (Andrew Balding) 4 8-1

Yet to race on turf. Three wins from six starts on the all weather. Soundly beaten last time mind and hard to fancy at all.

 

DARWELL LION (Ruth Carr) 6 8-1

Has spent nearly all of his career on the all weather winning four of his 18 starts. Soundly beaten on only turf run though that was on his second ever start back in September 2021. Impossible to fancy.

 

BASS PLAYER (Kevin Frost) 5 8-0

Just the one win from fifteen starts in his career. Only raced three times for latest trainer Kevin Frost. Stopped quickly and came back with a irregular heart beat at Wolverhampton last time and plenty of questions to answer now.

 

SUMMARY:-

Last year’s winner (Migration), second (Awaal), fourth (Majestic), sixth (Greatgadian) and ninth (Revich) are all back to renew rivalry with Awaal possibly likely to turn out the best on 4lb better terms with the winner although Greatgadian is considerably better off with the front two and can be part of the staking plan arriving here in good form from the all weather.

Monday’s Irish Lincoln winner Chazzesmee can’t be dismissed either if taking in the engagement although he did have a hard enough race that day on desperate ground.

Liberty Lane is a progressive horse who’s been gelded since last seen and obviously likes slow ground, he has to be thereabouts.

Julie Camacho has taken over the training of last year’s Irish Lincoln winner Lattam and is a very interesting runner as he adores the mud and if she has sweetened him up could be a value each way play.

Last year’s renewal was run on heavy ground and both the Spring Mile (the consolation race) and in the Lincoln high numbers had the call with all of the low drawn horses seemingly at a disadvantage. Obviously the draw can change from one meeting to another so lets not get too bogged down with stall positions until Thursday and the 48 hour declaration stage at least.

The two most unexposed sorts are at the top of the market and I’ll happily split my stake win only on that pair with a couple of each way stabs at Lattam and Greatgadian.

 

 

 

Staking plan:-

AWAAL 1 point win @ 9/2 Unibet

LIBERTY LANE 1 point win 11/2 bet365

LATTAM 1 point each way @ 16/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

GREATGADIAN 1/4 point each way @ 40/1 1/5th 12345

 

 

[Gary66]

Had my first glance last night and Lattams profile looks good and thunder ball has some good form and could possibly be unexposed on soft , fantastic for me to get back to flat . Very interesting race as always best of luck

[The Brigadier]

2 hours ago, Gary66 said:

Had my first glance last night and Lattams profile looks good and thunder ball has some good form and could possibly be unexposed on soft , fantastic for me to get back to flat . Very interesting race as always best of luck

Always good to have the flat proper back 

[richard-westwood]

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....

Lincoln hcap scan 

Johan.  9.0 14/1

Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 

Blues emperor 8.8 20/1

Raadabarg.   8.4 

Awwaal.  8.4 

Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

[richard-westwood]

On 3/20/2024 at 9:47 AM, richard-westwood said:

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....

Lincoln hcap scan 

Johan.  9.0 14/1

Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 

Blues emperor 8.8 20/1

Raadabarg.   8.4 

Awwaal.  8.4 

Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

I'm just backing Johan and Dutch decoy 10pts Ew both 12/1 and 25/1 ....blues I'm thinking probably wants better ground really hence dropped 

[calva decoy]

I've just done VETIVER 20/1eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 

It'll only be her 8th start with 3 wins over 7-8.5f on good to soft / soft & heavy , Balding / Probert good combo & she was 3rd in Group 3 fillies & mares over 7f here in September staying on , she's also already won a Listed , has had a 174 day break but won 1st time out last season & was placed on her debut run & i thought 20's was over priced ( probably be 50's now I've taken early price ) 

Slightly worried that @richard-westwoodhas picked Dutch Decoy as I used to have an eyelash in him but gave up on him when Johnston Snr would just run him on all weather but Johnston Jnr is doing a cracking job with him on turf .

[richard-westwood]

Spring mile 

Titian.  8.7  58 58. 13/2 

Arthur's realm. 8.5 28 30 12/1

Magic memories. 8.5. 41 37 14/1 

These three are clear of rest ....on class ratings you can see Titian is stand out but it's an open race and draw plays a part so I'll try 5pt wins all 3 

 

[black rabbit]

Blues Emperor                                                  3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      20/1

Navagio                                                              3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      40/1         - 3rd

Edited March 23 by black rabbit

[black rabbit]

On 3/20/2024 at 9:47 AM, richard-westwood said:

Love the flat ...lot less variables to cope with ....finished last season +740.00 PTS so that's the target to beat .....

Lincoln hcap scan 

Johan.  9.0 14/1

Dutch decoy. 8.9 25/1 

Blues emperor 8.8 20/1

Raadabarg.   8.4 

Awwaal.  8.4 

Love the Lincoln ....first big puzzle of the season .....interesting race result ...this race tends to go to young horses but both top two are 7+ ..... Interesting that Johan is top rated ....he doesn't race much now ....maybe two or three times a season but when conditions are right (8f soft )he's still a force to be reckoned with ...he will get that saturday so excellent value in 14/1(I'll probably go 10pt Ew once I'm sure running ) and 5pt Ew Dutch and blues  .....but of fun to start the season off 🎉

👏   👍

[Gary66]

Il stick with thunder ball backed earlier in the week @25/1 . I could probably select 4 more it’s a tough start as always proper puzzle

[Trotter]

Liberty Lane is drifting in the market. Pretty sure it was 4/1 last night but now out to 13/2 in places and is still on my short list with seemingly everything in it's favour - CD winner, won on soft, goes well after a break, yard in tremendous form, lightly raced 4 year old

EW shots ...... 

Thunderball 12/1
The Gatekeeper 14/1

I see that Chazzesmee is the new favourite having won the Irish Lincoln 5 days ago but at 9/4 he's not for me !. The time of the Irish race was not good and 5 days isn't much time to recover from a competitive handicap on heavy ground, plus the travelling ...... I'd be happy to take him on (and watch him scoot home by 5 lengths !). His price has collapsed overnight so somebody fancies him !

Win - Liberty Lane
EW - Thunderball, The Gatekeeper
Lay  - Chazzesmee

[black rabbit]

On 3/21/2024 at 3:20 PM, black rabbit said:

Blues Emperor                                                  3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      20/1

Navagio                                                              3 35 Don/                        1/40th of a pt ew      40/1         - 3rd

'Navagio'  ran a fine race for ew sheckles

[azzybear]

siobrhanbrogan 7.30

[fd1972uk]

Think I could have backed 10 horses easy before even thinking about the winner.

I had Johan as main bet and had used a free inplay bet on lattam.

 

[Antonio Margarettii]

So i was at a conference yesterday, held be a friend of mine, where an ambassador was present. I was kind of bored and picked up my phone, at the very moment i was was checking out the horses for this race the ambassador calls my friend "mister professor" in italian, and on the same instance i see the horse "Mr professor" and tell my brother, we both have a little laugh and put 5 pound ew on it. Later at night he had had one drink too many and as we recall this he goes and tries to put a silly ammount of money on it, i stopped him... Today the horse goes and wins in style. My goodness