Quest about odds movement on draws

[orhane]

Hello everyone,

I'd like to ask about your expperience with odds movement for Draw selections.

Do you think it is a general trend that the odds are increasing near kick off? Does this depend on the gap between the Fav and Dog?

Or is it linked to the competitions (Draws in LaLiga2 are valued differently than in Premier League for example)

[harry_rag]

Can't really add any informed views to this one. I can see why the draw might drift close to the off on the basis of it not being that popular with punters. If the money has gone on one or both teams to win then the draw might get pushed out to try and balance the book a bit more.

@Heisenberg68 does a bit of trading in the WDW markets so might have a better take then me.

[Heisenberg68]

On 2/4/2024 at 2:59 PM, orhane said:

Hello everyone,

I'd like to ask about your expperience with odds movement for Draw selections.

Do you think it is a general trend that the odds are increasing near kick off? Does this depend on the gap between the Fav and Dog?

Or is it linked to the competitions (Draws in LaLiga2 are valued differently than in Premier League for example)

 

The odds on a draw are really hard to estimate.

Indeed, a drop in the odds of the favorite will tend to increase those of the Dog in general, of course, but may also have consequences for the draw.

I'm only interested in one odds at a time, to be honest, either the Fav or the Dog. I've never really studied the odds of a draw because they're too unpredictable, except in certain cases, but that's relatively rare.
 

[harry_rag]

13 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

The odds on a draw are really hard to estimate.

Not intrinsically any harder or easier than the home or away odds really, with the added knowledge that punters don't generally like backing the draw which might suggest it's more likely to offer value. Indeed, if it's "easy" to calculate the home and away odds then, by a simple process of deduction, it's easy to work out the draw odds!

 

15 minutes ago, Heisenberg68 said:

I've never really studied the odds of a draw because they're too unpredictable, except in certain cases, but that's relatively rare.

Probably worth keeping a bit of an eye on. If there is a tendency for the price to drift as the win prices firm up then it could present a good trading opportunity.

[orhane]

I found a serious edge in Draws for some Competitions, but they are mostly based on maximum odds from oddsportal scraping.

Copa del Rey and Coupe de France made 175 Units on Flat Stakes since 2017/18 up to 2023/24, but since these are mostly "soft" bookies I am interested to catch the odds at a more preferable moment before the match,

[MCLARKE]

On 2/5/2024 at 3:58 PM, harry_rag said:

Not intrinsically any harder or easier than the home or away odds really, with the added knowledge that punters don't generally like backing the draw which might suggest it's more likely to offer value. Indeed, if it's "easy" to calculate the home and away odds then, by a simple process of deduction, it's easy to work out the draw odds!

Not wanting to butt in here but I am taking a bit more interest in football at the moment

I have analysed the major leagues over the last 15 years and the worst return is the away win with a ROI of -10%, the draw is -8% and the home win is -4%.