December Gold Cup Trends 2023 -Key Stats To Find Saturday’s Cheltenham Winner

[White Feather]

Favourites

The December Gold Cup has been a graveyard race for favourites in recent times. We’ve only seen one winning market leader reward favourite backers since 2000 and that was the Paul Nicholls-trained Poquelin in 2009 (7/2 fav).

This favourites trend is also backed up with 60% of the last 20 December Gold Cup favourites also being unplaced.

• December Gold Cup Favourite: Thunder Rock

Trainers

Since 1999 we’ve seen many different yards in the December Gold Cup. These include Nicky Henderson (2), David Pipe (2) and Jonjo O’Neill (2). While Venetia Williams won the race in 2014 and Nigel Twiston-Davies in 2013.

Of that bunch, Henderson and Pipe don’t have any entries this year, but O’Neill could run Prince Escalus, Williams has Frero Banbou and Easy As That, plus Twiston-Davies has Torn And Frayed entered at this stage.

However, the yard with the standout record in the race is Paul Nicholls. The Ditcheat handler has won the December Gold Cup five times in the past, with his most recent Frodon in 2016 and 2018.

No trainer has won the December Gold Cup more times than Paul Nicholls.

• Paul Nicholls Runners: Monmiral, Il Ridoto, Complete Unknown and Solo

Age

 

While with 14 of the last 22 (64%) aged 6 or 7 this age range is certainly worth having on side.

• Horses Aged 9+: Torn and Frayed, Do Your Job
• Horses Aged 4: Madara
• Horses Aged 6 or 7: Thunder Rock, Monmiral, Il Ridoto, So Scottish, Grandeur D’Ame, Jay Jay Reilly, Complete Unknown, Richmond Lake, Solo & Walk In Clover

Form

Having a run in the last six weeks has helped over the years, with 90% of the last 20 winners ticking this December Gold Cup trend.

Also note horses that have already won over 2m4f (16/20) and head into the race off the back of a solid recent run. This is backed up with 15 of the last 20 winners (75%) finishing in the top three last time out.

The final form trend to look out for is a run in that season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup as 45% of the last 20 winners ran in that November Cheltenham race, with 30% of those having been placed in the top five in it too. 25% of the last 20 winners also came here off the back of a win.

The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup was run on Saturday 18th November – watch below.

• Horses That Ran In The 2023 Paddy Power Gold Cup: Il Ridoto (3rd), Fugitif (4th), Easy As That (6th), Torn and Frayed (Fell)
• Horses With a Top 3 Finish Last Time: Thunder Rock, Il Ridoto, Fakir D’oudairies, Frero Banbou, Grandeur D’ Ame, Datsalrightgino, Richmond Lake, Railway Hurricane, Solo, Walk In Clover, Le Milos and In Excelsis Deo
• Horse That Won Last Time: Thunder Rock, Grandeur D’ Ame, Datsalrightgino, Richmond Lake

Weight

Finally, being a handicap then weight carried is worth a second glance too.

13 of the last 20 winners were rated 141 or higher, but with 9 of the last 11 winners (82%) having 10st 11lbs or less in their backs.

[richard-westwood]

December gold cup 

Il ridoto  9.0 7/1. Class 120

Fugitif. 8.9 10/1. Class 119

Thunder rock. 8.6  class 92

5pt Ew top 2