Racing Chat- Saturday 9th December

[The Brigadier]

An early look at Saturday's ITV races as I'm away for a few days. Good luck everyone.

 

Aintree 12.55

The first of nine races covered by ITV Racing today is this five runner 2M 4F listed mares chase. It looks a match between Venetia William’s Pink Legend and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Zambella with slight preference for the latter who’s won this race the last two years (was run at Carlisle last year).There's only officially 2lb between the two principals and both are making their seasonal re-appearance. It’ll be a good race between them but the pick is Zambella.

 

ZAMBELLA 1 point win @ 11/8 BetVictor

 

Sandown 1.15

The re-arranged Betfair Fighting Fifth from last weekend is a real treat for racing fans with Constitution Hill making his re-appearance. The poster boy of the National Hunt scene he’s unbeaten in seven starts under rules, including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle at the last two Cheltenham Festival. He’s officially rated 12lb and more superior than his rivals and has won on soft ground before. He should win this with possibly Love Envoi chasing him home.

 

Sandown 1.50

The 1M 7 1/2F Grade 1 Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase has attracted six runners with the likely favourite Joe Tizzard’s JPR One who looked all set to win comfortably at Cheltenham last time in a Grade 2 until unseating his rider at the last when three lengths clear. He holds Petit Tonnerre on that form and may have most to fear from Paul Nicholls’s Iceo who was 13 lengths behind him at Newton Abbot in October and is now 15lb better off. He can get closer but it’s JPR One’s race to lose I think and he’s the pick with Brendan Powell in the saddle.

 

JPR ONE 1 point win @ 15/8 BetUK

 

Aintree 2.05

Fourteen line up for the 3M 2F BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase run over the unique Grand National fences. A strong fancy here is the Dan Skelton trained Ashtown Lad who was a very impressive winner of the contest last season (Percussion 5 1/2L back in third and 4lb worse off). He races here today off of a handicap mark only 2lb higher than last year and with the stable’s runners mostly needing a run this season we can forgive him his poor run in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase at Wincanton under the stable conditional jockey last time as surely that was a race to tee him up for a tilt at this. With Gordon Elliott running Coko Beach that has helped the cause of the pick as it has suppressed the weights forcing the bottom five horse to race from out of the handicap proper.

 

ASHTOWN LAD 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Sandown 2.25

A competitive class 2 2M handicap hurdle with a strong favourite here in the shape of the Nicky Henderson trained, JP McManus owned Impose Toi a warm enough favourite. He should go well but does have to contend with a 10lb rise in the weights and it may pay to look towards the bottom of the handicap and Venetia Williams’s Bucksy Des Epeires who is making his handicap debut from 2lb out of the handicap although that is negated by his jockey Ned Fox’s 5lb claim. He showed form in four starts in France before joining the in form Venetia Williams and made a winning British debut when beating Dan Skelton’s well touted Illico De Cotte by a nose in a Lingfield maiden hurdle last month with the pair pulling 10L clear of the rest. A mark of 121 looks workable and he looks the bet here.

 

BUCKSY DES EPEIRES 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

BUCKSY DES EPEIRES & ASHTOWN LAD 1 point each way double @ 15/2 (1/5 1234)& 4/1 (1/5th 1234) bet365

 

Aintree 2.40

The 2m 1F listed juvenile hurdle has attracted ten runners with Paul Nicholls’s Liari, a winner on his hurdling debut at Wincanton and Dan Skelton’s Le Fauve the two that interest me. I slightly prefer the former who his trainer had this to say about last month “He’s potentially a lovely prospect for those good four-year-old races in the spring; he looks in a similar mould to Rubaud”. Max Of Stars is the other runner with claims on the book but the consistent Ollie Pears trainer three year old may not relish a slog on very soft ground so it’s Liari for me.

 

LIARI 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred

 

Sandown 3.00

Just five line up for the Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase run over just short of two miles. Nicky Henderson is in for a big day today with Constitution Hill running earlier and he can complete a big race double with his exciting two miler Jonbon who impressed more than ever when winning on his re-appearance at Cheltenham 20 days ago coasting home to beat the re-appearing Edwardstone by 9 1/2L who looks held here as does the third that day Nube Negra and with Boothill also held on last year’s Henry VIII Novices’ Chase form on this card this looks a straight forward task for JP McManus’s seven year old. Like stable companion Constitution Hill earlier he will be at prohibitive odds but it’s hard to look beyond him.

 

Aintree 3.15

A competitive 2M 4F class 2 handicap hurdle concludes racing at Aintree today. Plenty are in with a chance but it would be no shock if Paul Nicholl’s top weight Sonigino was to bounce back to winning form now upped to a trip that should suit. He’s run creditably on both starts this season finishing placed in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow and the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. Off of the same handicap mark as last time he looks sure to be thereabouts. Ben Case’s Bashers Reflection is an improver having won well at Wetherby in the mud last time and should also run well even if he is 7lb higher in the weights.

 

SONIGINO 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 3.35

Ten go to post for the 3M 4F 146 yard London National Handicap Chase, although a couple here Cyclop and Fortescue will run at Chepstow (if that meeting beats the elements). Venetia Williams and 5lb conditional jockey Ned Fox could be in for a good day with Bucksy Des Epeires in the 2.25 and Fontaine Collonges here. We haven’t seen the eight year old for 268 days but he has had a wind operation in the interim and won first time out last season in a valuable handicap chase at Haydock off of a handicap mark only a pound lower than today’s. With his trainer in such fine form still he can strike at the first time of asking this season. Beauport doesn’t look that badly treated and looks the danger.

 

FONTAINE COLLONGES 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

[White Feather]

BECHER CHASE TRENDS

AGE

Seven of the last 10 winners of the Becher Chase were aged eight or nine – Aintree specialist Vieux Lion Rouge (2016 & 2020) and Oscar Time (2014) were the only horses outside the age bracket.

CHASE FORM

A lot of experience over fences appears key as nine of the last 10 winners had at least seven previous runs over fences and the same number had at least two wins over the larger obstacles.

COURSE FORM

You want to look for a horse that has previously run at Aintree as nine winners of the Becher Chase since 2013 met this trend.

DISTANCE FORM

Eight of the last 10 winners had run over 3m or further on at least five previous occasions.

LAST TIME OUT

An emerging trend to note is that the last six winners of the Becher Chase all had just one prep run.

RATING

As the Becher Chase is a handicap, we aren’t exactly dealing with the cream of the National Hunt crop, but nine of the last 10 winners were all rated 135 or higher by the handicapper.

WEIGHT

The presence of 162-rated Coko Beach in the line up means 10 of the 14 runners meet the stat that eight winners since 2013 carried 10st 9lbs or less to victory.