Tennis Tips - November 13 - November 19

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Novak Djokovic to win ATP Finals 2023 at 2.38 with Bet365

With the rest of the field falling away a bit after the US Open, Djokovic stepped on the gas pedal and won the Paris Masters in style, so he should be primed for a win here. Except Alcaraz, everyone seems to have a mental block against him as well, and these aren't the ideal conditions for the Spaniard.

[Torque]

10 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Novak Djokovic to win ATP Finals 2023 at 2.38 with Bet365

With the rest of the field falling away a bit after the US Open, Djokovic stepped on the gas pedal and won the Paris Masters in style, so he should be primed for a win here. Except Alcaraz, everyone seems to have a mental block against him as well, and these aren't the ideal conditions for the Spaniard.

Completely agree. There's question marks over almost everybody else in the field, whilst Djokovic has clearly been aiming himself at this since the US Open. It's a short price, but I can't particularly make a case for any of the other players and so I'll be on Djokovic also.

[CzechPunter]

Hijikata/Kubler to beat Koolhof/Skupski at 3.75 with Bet365

At such big odds, I think Hijikata and Kubler are worth a play. They have now had some time to practice for this event after focusing on their singles most of the year, and they did manage to beat Koolhof and Skupski during their Australian Open run. They've lost to them twice since, and they're definitely not the favourites, but 3.75 is just too much imo.

[888888]

i think Sinner could be a surprise , only thing from what i remember is that he is young and usually gets under pressure and stressed when playing the bigger names; even though in the last 3 weeks he did beat Tsitsipas, Medvedev and Rublev so now he might have become stronger mentally.

 

Alcaraz has played 75 games in 10 months, Zverev 80 games in 11 months, seeing their latest matches i think they might be burnt out ; Medvedev is at 80 , Rublev 81 , Sinner 72 ;

Djokovic played "only" 58 matches so even though he is the oldest he could well be the most well rested, the only player which I feel could be a threat to him is Sinner, right now Djoko is at 2.00 to lift the trophy i can't decide whether to pull the trigger or not because it seems a bit low

[Swami]

On 11/12/2023 at 4:24 AM, Torque said:

Completely agree. There's question marks over almost everybody else in the field, whilst Djokovic has clearly been aiming himself at this since the US Open. It's a short price, but I can't particularly make a case for any of the other players and so I'll be on Djokovic also.

At these odds, tbh I would rather go against him… Medvedev and Alcaraz can both beat him anytime, maybe also this new version of Sinner can challenge him… yesterday Nole already played a 3 hrs match vs. Rune, it doesn’t look good to me

[Torque]

55 minutes ago, Swami said:

At these odds, tbh I would rather go against him… Medvedev and Alcaraz can both beat him anytime, maybe also this new version of Sinner can challenge him… yesterday Nole already played a 3 hrs match vs. Rune, it doesn’t look good to me

I can see what you mean @Swami as Djokovic was far from convincing yesterday. However, he tends to find a way - as he did against Rune - and I still think all the other players have bigger negatives right now than he does.

[CzechPunter]

Novak Djokovic to beat Jannik Sinner at 1.53 with Unibet

I've seen all three previous encounters between the two, and Sinner pretty much allowed the nerves to get to him on all three occasions. Will things be any different now? I honestly don't think so!

[Smiles Tennis]

WTA Colina - Starodubtsewa to beat Errani - 2.38 with William Hill

 

Starodubtsewa has climbed the rankings well this year when she started playing again, winning lower level tournaments, while Errani is approaching retirement and I think the odds should be closer than this. 

[888888]

Does anyone have a bookie offering '' most aces for the whole tournament " ? 

 

Here in France Betclic has 2,50 on Zverev while Unibet has 1,80 on him ; i am looking for a third bookie to compare whether to see if Betclic's 2,50 is value or not

 

[CzechPunter]

Can't find any when it comes to the ones I can access @888888.

Leolia Jeanjean to beat Despina Papamichail 2-0 at 2.00 with William Hill

I think this is playable at evens. I watched Papamichail against Sierra, and both players were all over the place, but Sierra was incredibly erratic and handed Papamichail the win on a silver platter, more or less. Jeanjean should be able to keep the ball in play long enough to make Papamichail make the unforced error, and her easy win over Anshba suggests that she has no issues with the Colina conditions.

[Smiles Tennis]

Colina - M. Lourdes Carle to beat D. Parry - 2.57 with Pinnacle

 

Parry was on a 7 match losing streak before dropping down to 25k level to build some confidence, reached the SF but lost to #280, then played a 60k and lost in the final to #224 so she's not at her highest level yet. Lourdes Carle has won 8 of her last 10 matches, all on clay, winning a 40k title in the process. 

Parry might have the edge but she's a bit short for me on current form. 

[CzechPunter]

Well, no kidding, Sinner managed to win it in a tie-break!

[Smiles Tennis]

 L. Pigossi to beat E. Mandlik - 3.1 with Unibet

Mandlik only has two wins against players ranked in the top 270 since early September. Pigossi is back on clay after a mediocre hard court period but can cause problems to make me think she should be a shorter price than this. 

[888888]

interesting situation ,

if Rune wins then Djoko is out , his opponent Sinner is already qualified so he plays for nothing , so could Sinner not try very hard to win.....?

[adastra]

Even assuming equal motivation, 3.0 would still be decent odds for Rune against Sinner. Rune isn't really injured anymore and likes indoor hard. Also, Djokovic was actually slightly better vs Sinner and Rune was just slightly worse against Djokovic. And let's be real here: Sinner probably wants to maximize his chances of winning the title and Djokovic is the most difficult player to beat here (with Medvedev clearly being #2, ahead of the rest of the field), especially in the final. Maybe even many Italian fans would prefer Sinner losing tonight, could be funny scenes if it does happen. I don't expect Sinner doing an obvious tank, but playing with a bit less energy and accuracy/focus increases his chances of losing by a lot in a sport of such small margins.

Edited November 16, 2023 by adastra

[888888]

yes i agree ; taking Rune with small stakes 

[888888]

Rune had his huge chance in the 3rd , disgusted , 4-3 up he had a break point on Sinner's 2nd serve to serve for the match which he missed ridiculously , he then lost 6 points in a row and himself got broken😂🤡

[adastra]

I really did not expect Sinner to be this stupid. Well, maybe behind the scenes Djokovic offered him free coaching after his retirement (or something similar) if he manages to win...

[888888]

Same here ; when Rune won the 2nd i was certain Sinner would lose the 3rd 6-1 or 6-2 on purpose , hope he'll be fatigued and get blasted off the court in his next match

[888888]

tomorrow we have the same situation haha ; Medvedev already qualified playing Alcaraz ; difference being is Medvedev will play his semi final directly the next day

[timovk]

ATP Finals Semis

Sinner - Medvedev over 2.5 sets  @2.29 Marathobet
Alcaraz - Djokovic over 2.5 sets @2.23 Marathonbet

Both matched will be tough battles! It's very hard to predict who will be a winner and three sets are very close.

Ram/Salisbury - Gonzalez/Roger Vasselin @2.21 Marathonbet
Gonzalez/Roger Vasselin did win 0-2 two weeks ago. Nothing has changed and IMO this should be 50-50 so this odds has same value!

[Smiles Tennis]

Colina matches

Mandlik to beat Parry - 2.46 with Betfair

Podoroska to beat Bejlek - 1.85 with Betfair

 

 

No time for write ups tonight

[CzechPunter]

Looking good for Djokovic fortunately!