TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Update for Thursday Winning lays 15.10 - 2.44 = 10pts+ 18.30 -1.79 = 10pts+ 20.30 - 2.45 = 10pts+ = 30pts+ Losing lays 12.15 - 2.46 = 14.6pts- 13.15- 1.43 = 3.3pts- 14.50 - 1.98 = 9.8pts- 15.40 -2.48= 14.8pts- 17.00 -1.44 = 4.4pts- =46.9pts- Loss on day of 16.9pts- Running total 7 days loss of 73.9pt- Bank 926.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Crazy Chase update for Thursday 12.15 loss 13.15 loss 14.50 loss 15.10 win =10pts+ -------------------------- 15.40 loss 17.00 loss 18.30 win = 10pts+ --------------------------- 20.30 win = 10pts+ = 30pts + on the day Day Sequence loss , loss , loss , win , loss , loss , win , win , 7 day crazy chase 180pts+ Bank 1180 Crazy Chase Data =. Average odds layed in crazy chase is 2.05 7 days 42 races Race data Losing Lays = 24 winning Lays = 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Todays bad boys 13.20 Brunello Breeze 13.55 Governor Of India 14.20 JPR One 14.30 Assailant 14.45 East End Girl 15.05 Haaland 15.20 Gaboriot 15.30 Captain Teague 15.53 Zwicky 16.15 Involvement 16.50 Welcome Dream 17.30 Timeless Charm 17.52 Gloves Good luck alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Been interested enough in this to do some maths, especially from the chasing perspective. In terms of the level stakes lays, they're currently showing a loss but obviously it's only a small sample size. My gut feel is that, given the criteria, they're going to show a marginal loss or profit in the long run, nothing spectacular but I wouldn't like to guess which way it might go. In terms of the chasing I just had to get my head round why it obviously has to be a bad idea despite the positive results at this early stage. By my reckoning, a run of 6 consecutive winners at your average odds would wreck your bank (i.e. there wouldn't be enough left to stake the 7th bet) and 7 would lose far more than your 1000 point bank. Hitting 6 straight winning selections is no more than an 80/1 shot. So, basically, do this for long enough and it's inevitable that you'll lose the entire bank. Obviously not a reason for you not to carry on if you're enjoying it, I just had to prove to myself why this staking model is a bad idea! I've got data for 1535 goalscorers this year at average odds of 2.7. It would take a run of 4 winners to wreck the bank and 5 to lose more than the grand. I've had multiple runs of 4, 5 or 6 winners and one of 7 that would've paid out accumulated odds of 1697/1. So a reasonably comparable real world example with a decent sample size that would have seen a 1000 point bank blown several times over. Worth bearing in mind in case anyone is tempted to try anything similar, especially to bigger stakes. ps - am I correct in thinking that your results don't account for any commission on the winning lays? MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Update for Friday Winning lays 13.20 - 2.04 = 10pts+ 13.55 - 2.76 = 10pts+ 14.20 - 2.62 = 10pts+ 15.05 - 2.92 = 10pts+ 15.30 - 1.75 = 10pts+ 16.15 - 1.59 = 10pts+ 17.30 - 1.37 = 10pts+ = 70pts + on the day Running total 8 days loss of 3.9pts- Bank 996.1pts harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Hi Harry_rag Yep every thing you say is true but for me is not my bread and butter racing laying/backing hence the bank of only £50 as its just a Glory hunt like every other system on this forum What I am looking to do is double my £50 bank then the system has 2 banks ect then if I can add another and so on (the betting Gods laughing) On the point of commission I leave that to the individual as we are all on different amounts but will take commission off after 30days based on Betfair and Smarkets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 Crazy Chase update for Friday 13.20 win =10pts+ 13.55 win =10pts+ 14.20 win =10pts+ 15.05 win =10pts+ 15.30 win =10pts+ 16.15 win=10pts+ 17.30 win =10pts+ = 70pts + on the day Day Sequence win , win ,win,win,win,win ,win 7 day crazy chase 250pts+ Bank 1250 Crazy Chase Data =. Average odds layed in crazy chase is 2.10 8 days 49 races Race data Losing Lays = 24 winning Lays = 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 17, 2023 Share Posted November 17, 2023 Nice day today anyway in terms of not having to chase losses. As (presumably) no one is on zero commission then the results should really account for it. Either your actual rate or, I'd suggest, a minimum of 2% which would be common for Betfair customers. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 No probs 2% it will be based on Betfair Thanks for the input harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 17, 2023 Author Share Posted November 17, 2023 (edited) Update on points with commission at 2% based on Betfair average Level lays 260pts won x 2% over 8 days = 5.2pt- Running total 8 days loss of 9.1pts- Bank 990.9pts Crazy Lay 8 day crazy chase 250pts+ x 2% = 5pts- = 245pt+ Bank 1245 Edited November 17, 2023 by TCTOPCAT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 18, 2023 Author Share Posted November 18, 2023 Hi No racing for systems today as I am out all day for a birthday party and will not be able to see odds or racing back Sunday for more fun. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted November 18, 2023 Share Posted November 18, 2023 2 hours ago, TCTOPCAT said: Hi No racing for systems today as I am out all day for a birthday party and will not be able to see odds or racing back Sunday for more fun. Enjoy your day 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 Hi alexcaruso808 Thanks very much had a great day alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 Todays Horses 12.55 Lautrec 14.00 Lou Lous Gift 15.19 Captain Claude 15.50 Sams Amour Good luck alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 Update on day Winning Lays 15.50 9.8pts+ after commission Losing Lays 14.00 17.00pts- 15.19 20.00pts- = 27.2pts - loss on the day Running total 9 days loss of 36.3pts- Bank 963.7pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 19, 2023 Author Share Posted November 19, 2023 Crazy Chase for Sunday 14.00 loss 15.19 loss 15.50 win = 9.8pts+ after commission = 9.8pts + on the day Day Sequence Loss , Loss , Win 9 day crazy chase 254.8pts+ Bank 1254.8 Crazy Chase Data =. Average odds layed in crazy chase is 2.36 9 days 52 races Race data Losing Lays = 26 winning Lays = 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCTOPCAT Posted November 20, 2023 Author Share Posted November 20, 2023 Todays horses 12.20 Hill Of Tara 12.30 Shanagh Bob 13.05 Saligo Bay 13.15 Gidleigh Park 13.40 General Medrano 14.25 Alifes Princess 14.40 Hasthing 14.50 Stanley Pincombe 15.00 Lady Adare 15.10 Impression Chic 15.20 No Risk With Lou 16.00 Bond Broker 17.30 Sommelier 18.00 Ezra Cee 19.00 Perseus Way Good luck MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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