Tennis Tips - October 23 - October 29

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Christopher O'Connell to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.77 with Unibet

Baez isn't really a player that you'd like to back indoors, and Christopher O'Connell also already has 2 qualifying wins under his belt here, which is a major plus. Baez did beat him last time out, but the form book is on O'Connell's side, and I think he's improved more since then as well.

[James32021950]

good morning all

Christopher O’Connell to beat Sebastian Baez

 

I just want to echo what Czechpunter has tipped, completely agree and this is where I’ll also be putting my money today. 

hope you don’t mind me also tipping this one, I like it and can’t really find anything else I like today 

Edited October 23, 2023 by James32021950

[four-leaf]

46 minutes ago, James32021950 said:

good morning all

Christopher O’Connell to beat Sebastian Baez

 

I just want to echo what Czechpunter has tipped, completely agree and this is where I’ll also be putting my money today. 

hope you don’t mind me also tipping this one, I like it and can’t really find anything else I like today 

You might wanna switch to snooker?

[James32021950]

Good morning all, 

 

lorenzo Sonego to beat Francisco Cerundolo 

hoping the Sonego can take advantage of his lucky loser card here having lost in qualifying, he did make it to the final a couple years ago beating Djokovic along the way, Sonego can take advantage of his superior indoor hardcout experience in this match up. 

 

[CzechPunter]

Renata Zarazua to beat Emina Bektas at 2.00 with Unibet

Bektas has been semi-injured for a while, and Zarazua, in home conditions, has the right playing style to take advantage of that I'd say. She can run and play longer rallies all day long, and she also tends to perform reasonably well in Mexico, so I'm honestly not sure what makes her the underdog here.

[sterziyskii]

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[James32021950]

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[Robinnho]

Seyboth Wild +1.5 set to beat Griekspoor @1.91 with Pinnacle.

Griekspoor is in low form. SW has equal ability and much better condition........ except he is a more of a claycourt player.

[motorhead66]

I wish I had Pinny

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, Robinnho said:

Seyboth Wild +1.5 set to beat Griekspoor @1.91 with Pinnacle.

Griekspoor is in low form. SW has equal ability and much better condition........ except he is a more of a claycourt player.

Thank you very much, easy money ✔️

[Smiles Tennis]

Vekic to beat Qinwen Zheng - 4.1 with GGbet

Zheng has been flying recently but shouldn't be 1.3 or lower against a top 25 player, no matter how out of form they are. 

 

Kasatkina to beat Krejcikova - 2.7 with Unibet

Krejcikova had a good week recently but has still been poor most of the year. Kasatkina has been grinding away this season and was tired when Babs beat her recently but she shouldn't be this high.

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, Smiles Tennis said:

Vekic to beat Qinwen Zheng - 4.1 with GGbet

Zheng has been flying recently but shouldn't be 1.3 or lower against a top 25 player, no matter how out of form they are. 

 

Kasatkina to beat Krejcikova - 2.7 with Unibet

Krejcikova had a good week recently but has still been poor most of the year. Kasatkina has been grinding away this season and was tired when Babs beat her recently but she shouldn't be this high.

Yet again I don't really understand your thinking here? You totally throw out pure hopeful thinking.

[four-leaf]

Caroline Dolehide/Ash Lahey under 18.5 games at 1.87 with Leovegas

Should be simple enough for Caroline.

[CzechPunter]

Elizabeth Mandlik to beat Ann Li at 1.98 with Unibet

From what I've seen, Li has been rather shaky recently, and Mandlik is certainly more talented than her as well. She should be able to push Li in these conditions with her superior power, and upsetting Stearns in the first round should be a big confidence booster for her.

[Smiles Tennis]

9 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Yet again I don't really understand your thinking here? You totally throw out pure hopeful thinking.

It seems that you always disagree with everything I post. That's fine though. It's not totally hopeful thinking. I analyse the stats etc I think the favourites are too short here. You think Zheng should be 1.28 or whatever she currently is just because she hit some good form in recent weeks? Recent form doesn't last forever, players often fall back to a lower level (unless you're Iga last year). How many times do you see players on a long losing streak suddenly start winning and win a tournament?

Confidence can change a players mindset fast, and I think these odds are too high for the underdogs. Good luck with your bets.

Attached is a screenshot of some of my other "hopeful bets" in the last week or so that I have shared in a group. I didn't post them here as I often can't be bothered with write ups and I know write ups are preferred here. 

Have a good day. 

[James32021950]

Good morning all

 

Khackanov to beat Lehecka 

H2H 1-0 

Lehecka is certainly capable of beating Khackanov if he plays his maximum tennis, but anything less than his maximum and Khackanov superior tennis should see him win, I think Khackanov’s victory over Safiullin should also be a nice confidence boost. 

[sterziyskii]

1 hour ago, James32021950 said:

Good morning all

 

Khackanov to beat Lehecka 

H2H 1-0 

Lehecka is certainly capable of beating Khackanov if he plays his maximum tennis, but anything less than his maximum and Khackanov superior tennis should see him win, I think Khackanov’s victory over Safiullin should also be a nice confidence boost. 

Same here. I think Khachanov should prevail in this one and I'll go with Hurkacz as well.

About Zheng, I think that her odds are way too low as well. She is playing well and I betted on her many times in the last week but Vekic is a top 20 player and the odds for her should not be that high. Anyway I will skip this match and will go with the 2 matches above, Hurkacz and Khachanov.

Edited October 25, 2023 by sterziyskii

[four-leaf]

@Smiles Tennis why do you always have to take so much unnecesarry risk?

[James32021950]

Gojo to beat Karastev

 

Karastev made it to the final of the Tokyo 500 last week only to be beaten to n straight sets by Shelton, knowing Karastev can be up and down with his mentality and attitude I wonder what he will do with travelling to a different continent and performing after his performance on Sunday, I’m hoping with his big serve, Gojo can take advantage of any mental or physical fatigue Karastev may have. 

[Smiles Tennis]

25 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@Smiles Tennis why do you always have to take so much unnecesarry risk?

I don't feel its unnecessary.  I feel its a value price.  I've only had about 8 selections in the last week or so.  Unnecessary risk would surely mean lots more bets? 

Or are odds on bets only worth the risk to you?

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:

I don't feel its unnecessary.  I feel its a value price.  I've only had about 8 selections in the last week or so.  Unnecessary risk would surely mean lots more bets? 

Or are odds on bets only worth the risk to you?

They set these odds for a reason and only the bookies knows why

[four-leaf]

As always between top players it's a fine margin between the winner and the loser

[Smiles Tennis]

3 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

As always between top players it's a fine margin between the winner and the loser

I agree. And that's why I often think odds should be closer than they are and I back the underdog. 

And in regards to your previous comment,  the bookies set those odds because of the amount of money that gets bet on the players at certain prices let's them know whether the player should have a better chance of winning than what they've priced it as. 

 

I see the first of my hopeful bets just won,  Kasatkina at 2.7. I thought that was too high and the match would be closer.  This time she won.  😁

[motorhead66]

nice call on Kasatkina.

[four-leaf]

Every match is different and the circumstances are often different

[motorhead66]

Good fight from Donna so far, Smiles right on the money here too imho, hope I am not jinxing. 

 

Bailly @2 vs Edmund looks nice to me, looked to have adapted well to indoor (nice match vs Ruiz) and the brit's form is kind of a question mark.

[four-leaf]

As you could expect of all matches from Zhuhai today, very tight. I can agree that the odds are favoring one player too much when it is as we see, really 50/50 but if you could turn the odds around it would feel much better for me if someone says this isn't 50/50. It's a clear case of Donna or Daria to be winners. So @Smiles Tennis I rather prefer if you say it's more a case of the wrong favorite since nobody likes to bet on something that's 50/50 in everyones eyes.

[yossa6133]

6 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

As you could expect of all matches from Zhuhai today, very tight. I can agree that the odds are favoring one player too much when it is as we see, really 50/50 but if you could turn the odds around it would feel much better for me if someone says this isn't 50/50. It's a clear case of Donna or Daria to be winners. So @Smiles Tennis I rather prefer if you say it's more a case of the wrong favorite since nobody likes to bet on something that's 50/50 in everyones eyes.

I'd like to bet 50/50 chances at 3/1 all day please 😆

[Smiles Tennis]

18 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

As you could expect of all matches from Zhuhai today, very tight. I can agree that the odds are favoring one player too much when it is as we see, really 50/50 but if you could turn the odds around it would feel much better for me if someone says this isn't 50/50. It's a clear case of Donna or Daria to be winners. So @Smiles Tennis I rather prefer if you say it's more a case of the wrong favorite since nobody likes to bet on something that's 50/50 in everyones eyes.

I didn't think it was the wrong favourite.  I just didn't think Zheng should be a low as 1.3. 

Zheng will probably win,  but the amount of times Vekic would win this at this price would be profitable.