Racing chat - Saturday 30th sept

[richard-westwood]

Cambridgeshire 

Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 

Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 

Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 

Greek order.  8.4

Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

[Tedthewolf]

Cambridgeshire

1.5 pts e/w  bog  6p on both   MAJESTIC  25/1 &  HAUNTED DREAM 20/1

6pts INVESTED

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.50

The first of four races covered by the ITV cameras is the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes for two year old colts and geldings. Nine go to post with Aidan O’Brien’s Capulet looking the one they all have to beat. He stepped forward from a debut victory at Dundalk to run stable mate Diego Velazquez to half a length in the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes with the fourth, 3 1/2L behind, being Deepone who went on to take the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last weekend, giving the form an almighty boost. He sets the standard and may have too many guns for the likes of the Godolphin runner Aablan and Roger Varian’s Al Musmak.

 

CAPULET 1 point win @ 2/1 William Hill

 

Chester 2.05

ITV are showing just the one from the Roodeye in this 2M 2 1/2F class 2 handicap with nine doughty stayers in the line up. Declan Carroll’s six year old Emiyn has a great record here which reads 14242171 including when plundering a handicap here in July over half a mile shorter than todays. He showed he stays this far when winning this very race last year off of a 7lb lower mark. He looks sure to be thereabouts with his usual front running tactics. Brian Ellison’s mud loving top weight Tashkhan should also be thereabouts and looks a threat.

 

ERMIYN 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 2.25

A decent field of thirteen race for the Group 1 Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes run over 6F. William Haggas’s Relief Rally sets the standard and should run well although is priced accordingly and it maybe worth looking for some each way value with the Charlie Johnston trained Sacred Angel. The grey daughter of Dark Angel looked a smart filly when winning at Newmarket and Ascot on fast ground in July, including in Group 3 company and may have got bogged down in the mud in the Group 1 Prix Morny last time when only finishing 4 3/4L fourth behind Vandeek. Back on a sounder surface she can outrun her odds.

 

SACRED ANGEL 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Haydock 2.40

The sole race covered by ITV at Haydock today is the class 2 5F handicap which has attracted a field of nine with a strong fancy in the shape of the Tim Easterby trained Manila Scouse who will relish the soft ground. His form figures when encountering soft or heavy ground read 22212251 and he showed last time out when third (beaten 1/2L) in a similar grade handicap at York last weekend that he’s in fine form when chasing home Vintage Clarets. A reproduction of that effort on ground he loves should see him go very close.

 

MANILA SCOUSE 1 points each way @ 9/2 Paddy Power 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 3.00

Nine two year old colts line up for the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes run over 6F. The race may be fought out by Simon & Ed Crisford’s Vandeek and the Aidan O’Brien trained River Tiber. The pair met in the Prix Morny at Deauville in August on very soft ground with Vandeek winning with River Tiber 2 1/4L back in third. That doesn’t tell the whole story mind as O’Brien was very vocal before the race that his Coventry Stakes winner had missed plenty of work ad would improve plenty. If that’s the case I expect the placings to be reversed here and he can take a race that he’s been successful in on three of the last six seasons.

 

RIVER TIBER 2 points win 9/4 Coral

 

Newmarket 3.40

The feature race of the meeting is the Cambridgeshire Handicap which has attracted a maximum field of thirty five. The one that stands out is the Harry & Roger Charlton trained Greek Order who has so much going for him (bar his price) that he will be hard to beat. A lightly raced son of Kingman he’s won handicaps at Sandown and Newbury in fine style this year with his latest win already been boosted by the subsequent easy success of the runner up Maximilian Caesar. A high draw is very advantageous and in stall 25 he’s got that. He could easily be a blot on the handicap. I’ve every respect for Dual Identity, who did us a favour last time at Sandown and was an unlucky third in this race from a poor draw last year and is also worth backing each way with additional places.

 

GREEK ORDER 2 points win @ 4/1 William Hill

DUAL IDENTITY 1 point each way @ 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

[richard-westwood]

150newm 

Ghostwriter. 8.0. 5/1

Capulet. 7.6 5/2

Fav Capulet  looks strong but ghostwriter looks a horse going places so I'll try 10pt Ew 

[richard-westwood]

225 newm 

Jasnas secret looks a horse on a steep upward curve ....faster ground a query but looks a speedy type 

10pt win 7/2

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by richard-westwood

[White Feather]

Sacred Angel 10/1 bet 365 - 2:25 Newmarket - James Doyle takes the ride and will be looking to dictate the pace in this 6f event.

[black rabbit]

Astro King                                                               3 40 New/            1/40th of a pt ew    28/1

Majestic                                                                   3 40 new/            1/40th of a pt ew    25/1

Lake Forest                                                             3 00 New/            1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Gulliver                                                                    3 15 Hay/             1/40th of apt ew     14/1

Son                                                                           1 50 New/            1/40 th of a pt ew   50/1

Louis Quatorze                                                      2 58 Lon/              1/40th of a pt ew    38/1

Sumo Sam                                                              3 33 Lon/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 171.30 pt

Edited September 30, 2023 by black rabbit
selections

[ivans82]

New todays morning line would be good when Adele Mulrennan and Matt Chapman were on  ,  She clearly doesn`t get on with Him  , as already glowered at Him a few times (with good cause ) , come on Adele give Him both barrels   !

[kensland]

Singles 

Parislongchamp 

4.08. Witch Hunter      10/1

Haydock. 

3.15. Royal Dress        8/1

Newmarket 

4.50. Liv my Life       17/2

Good luck all. 

[The Equaliser]

On 9/28/2023 at 2:26 PM, richard-westwood said:

Cambridgeshire 

Dual identity.  8.9 12/1 

Eagles way. 8.7  28/1 

Killybegs warrior. 8.7 40/1 

Greek order.  8.4

Greek order could be anything but has been raised 10lb so looks worth taking on .....with 6places I'll try 5pt Ew top 3 at big prices and hope one springs a surprise 

What I don't understand is that if Greek Order has been raised 10 lbs how is it that the horse is only carrying 8-9 lbs in weight?

[Nigwilliam]

41 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

What I don't understand is that if Greek Order has been raised 10 lbs how is it that the horse is only carrying 8-9 lbs in weight?

I'll try,

Won Class 3 lto rated 85, carrying 8-13

Runs in Class 2 today rated 95, carries 8-9

[azzybear]

thunder ball 3.40 ew 

[azzybear]

al musmak 1.50.ew 

[azzybear]

cherry blossom 2.25 ew 

[azzybear]

task force 3.00 ew 

[azzybear]

famoso 12.05 angers France 

[azzybear]

harbour wind 12.23 Longchamp 

[Brahmin]

😲 hope this not an omen for today, did 2 in 1st race Longchamp with Harbour Wind from Ireland @ 2/1 and A Fabres runner @ 8/1 EW. 2nd & 4th 👎

3rd race Longchamp gone for the 3 Brit runners in a Combination tricast....Trushan / Emily Dickenson / Run for Oscar 🤞

Newm 1.50     Capulet  7/4             Ghostwriter 10/3     WON     

Ches 2.05        Baez  4/1               Yorkindness    15/2 EW 

Newm 2.25     Jasnas Secret  7/1 EW  ( main bet backed thursday on thread)             Shuangxi  100/1 EW                     4 places

Hay 2.40          Silky Wilkie  5/1                   Manila Scouse  7/2

Ripon 2.55      Hoof it Hoof it   6/1 EW   WON         Bay of Hope  14/1  EW     3rd 

Long 2.58        Loose Cannon 7/2                    Stangheli   22/1 EW    3rd

Newm 3.00      Vandeek  7/4    WON                      Jasour  10/1 EW

  😲 needed that last 5 mins of 3 races with 2 wins / 2 EW places......also a 2nd Easterby winner with Roach Power 9/2 at Haydock, just got bet on  👍

Newm 3.40      Merlin the Wizard 12/1 EW ( daily nap)      Carolus Magnus  66/1 EW     Thunder ball 70/1 EW                6 places

 

        3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 and 2 EW places so ok......not count Roach Power 9/2 as not post, just managed to get bet on, so made nice profit in end 💷

       late info..pals at Newmarket races heard Crisfords runner at Longchamp 'Poker Face' 4/1 WON have nice bit on, also ive done Fabres Belbek 9/2...                and in last at HQ he doing Tuers 'Bajan Bandit'  7/1 EW  2nd.......

    Sooo big 😘 to our friends at HQ today who enjoyed their 2 days racing / Bavarian delicacies & for the late tip in Longchamp for very nice 4/1 winner    who won easily we hear 2/3 lengths 👍

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Brahmin

[The Equaliser]

Done 3 L15's and accas on the daily = 6.50 pts

3.40 Nm Crack Shot 0.50 ew 8 p 14/1

4.20 Ches Ramiro  0.50 ew 4 p at 16/1

= total of 8.50 stakes for 13 selections in 12 races; how's that for a bit of fun?

[Zilzalian]

2yo speed

150 ghost writer

225 porter fortuna

300 jasour

[richard-westwood]

On 9/29/2023 at 12:44 PM, richard-westwood said:

150newm 

Ghostwriter. 8.0. 5/1

Capulet. 7.6 5/2

Fav Capulet  looks strong but ghostwriter looks a horse going places so I'll try 10pt Ew 

Cmon beauty ....+60.00 😀

[MCLARKE]

Stats for the Cambridgeshire.

Draw 21 to 29 7 from 75, profit 208. Remainder 2 from 199, loss -163.

Irish bred 7 from 147, profit 113.

Weight 7st 11lbs to 8st 8lbs 5 from 103, profit 137

This leaves MAJESTIC at 12/1 7 places

 

Should have looked at it earlier, could have got 25/1 like @black rabbit and @Tedthewolf

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

2yo speed

150 ghost writer

225 porter fortuna

300 jasour

Two out of three, i will settle for that. singles, doubles and a failed treble

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

What I don't understand is that if Greek Order has been raised 10 lbs how is it that the horse is only carrying 8-9 lbs in weight?

You and everyone really need to know how the handicap works if you are ever going to bet seriously. Drop the derby winner into a top handicap and it will have to carry 14+ stone.

[Sporting Sam]

Cambridgeshire 

3:40

 

Majestic
Greek order
Both win
Eileen Dubh
Each way
Is the draw data horse along with Greek order.

seven year sweep of draw info here and a visit to the rails bookies yields just four places available to punters.

 

I did say to them “if fat Mac was here he’d have the lot of you!!”

COME RACING!!!!

(and bet online)

Edited September 30, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[black rabbit]

21 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Astro King                                                               3 40 New/            1/40th of a pt ew    28/1

Majestic                                                                   3 40 new/            1/40th of a pt ew    25/1

Lake Forest                                                             3 00 New/            1/40th of a pt ew    18/1

Gulliver                                                                    3 15 Hay/             1/40th of apt ew     14/1

Son                                                                           1 50 New/            1/40 th of a pt ew   50/1

Louis Quatorze                                                      2 58 Lon/              1/40th of a pt ew    38/1

Sumo Sam                                                              3 33 Lon/              1/40th of a pt ew    16/1

 

 

 

 

P/L   + 171.30 pt

Astro king from the clouds 😄  and magestic for place sheckels      dog and duck , beer lots of, curry house, fur to finish at cat house 😃

[fd1972uk]

Star of Orion 1725 NEW , plus double with Deira Mile at Chelmsford.

Two winners ghostwriter and Astro King.

Also special on Coral, small bet, trueshan and horizon Dore.  Harbour Wind had beat my other Trueshan double special.

[Zilzalian]

@LEE-GRAYS Noticed quian running in the last at haydock? its  best form wins this.

Nah time to give up on that one me thinks, might give 1 more chance if on jumps.

Edited September 30, 2023 by Zilzalian
update

[Sporting Sam]

Newmarket 4:15

lia rose

each way

strutting

Win

drawn together in 7 and 8

draw data ( adjusted figures due to two anomalies over the sample period)

[azzybear]

Jack Darcy 4.43 ew Parislongchamp