Hugh Taylor Selections

[Bang on]

33 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Anyone reading my analysis will see I highlighted the first three home yesterday. I didn’t follow up for reasons given on the main racing daily page. I think it is fair to say as others have pointed out, when Hugh puts up a poor selection it enhances the price of many other runners in a contest.

This means there is huge value potentially to be had in the field elsewhere at times. I think there is plenty of scope 1. to exploit that angle and 2. To follow the selection if it tallies with your thinking too.

 I’m going to carry on with this thread 

1 as it works 

2 because I want to.

main thread I’ll leave alone.

Hugh’s picks today look pretty good and the rationale looks sound. I’m on the road today but will be looking very closely at these two races and hope to post closer to the off time.

 

 

Didn't we say this at the beginning ?

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Sporting Sam said:

I think it is fair to say as others have pointed out, when Hugh puts up a poor selection it enhances the price of many other runners in a contest.

Do you have any evidence to support this ?

[MCLARKE]

57 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Didn't we say this at the beginning ?

Intuitively, it sounds sensible. However Hugh is selecting horses that are undervalued originally, the odds usually contract but that doesn't always mean it will become overvalued.

On the all weather his selections make a profit at BSP which indicates they are still good value at SP and therefore the rest are poor value.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

Didn't we say this at the beginning ?

To be fair that point is acknowledged in the text immediately prior to that you've put in bold!

8 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you have any evidence to support this ?

Probably fair to say that if his selections are backed in then others will lengthen, although knowing the bookies they won't give as much back with the one hand as they take away with the other! I guess if you like his selection you may curse him tipping it before you had chance to grab a decent price. If you don't then you may benefit from a slightly better price on other runners than you would have done had he not tipped it.

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Probably fair to say that if his selections are backed in then others will lengthen, although knowing the bookies they won't give as much back with the one hand as they take away with the other! I guess if you like his selection you may curse him tipping it before you had chance to grab a decent price. If you don't then you may benefit from a slightly better price on other runners than you would have done had he not tipped it.

Even if they are backed in they can still remain good value and vice versa

[Sporting Sam]

“Nice winner in  the “ around the world in 80 ways” thread as 
Packing Bole bolts up  on the all weather under our own  A. Atzeni in the last at Sha Tin at the rewarding uk odds of 9/1”

Kempton

1900

Brassavola makes yard debut and stepping up in trip for this first run could be anything. Still a maiden and handicapper has put this runner ahead of past winners at the head of the weights and that alone is enough of a reason to look elsewhere. 
Trans flors

each way

has been running well and but for a tardy start last time would have been right in the frontline. A credible third place means with a clean break could go close and at double figures is worthy of attention.

The runner who has a real shout here on collaborative form with a horse he beat nearly two years ago however is 

Silver Screen

win

runs here off a career low mark and beat poptronic in November 21 for what remains just the sole career win. As a result handicap mark has steadily dropped and these two horse’s careers have gone in opposite directions.

Silver screen was a beaten favourite last time clearly better was expected under William Buick but didn’t run at all badly. Poptronic ran at longchamp at the start of the month in testing conditions and really rocked the house at ascot on Saturday winning off a mark of over 100.

There is very little indeed to recommend the well backed top weight given the franking given to silver screen and the fact that a while host of other runners are dropping down to attractive marks here and have British form in this grade. If that one wins all good and well and as Hugh Taylor asserts trainer has a 20% strike rate on stable switchers. This however looks like one of the 80%.

no more selections today

Edited October 25, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

First time out record of french horses on the flat is understandably poor and so it proved with Brassavola. As opined he was one of the 80% of the trainers horses that lose on debut. Trans flors hasn’t got away on terms again last night but was real value for his head second. Horses coming back under winning marks are far better placed than unproven french maidens hammered on debut by a cautious handicapper and stakes races are a way round that. As for the second race Waterloo sunset was an excellent winner last night  and I’m happy to aftertime with that one as I put it up each way on the racing forum last night at the post. ( I also said earlier on first analysis that both of Hugh’s  selections were sound) Trans flors is well worth following again and almost certainly either needs a change in trip shorter or longer to account for the tardy starts or some assistance in the form of headgear. It’s pushing on in the month and I’m hoping to land a tricast by months end…..  the actual race was won by the rampant Charlie Johnston outfit and their strike rate to runs is amazing and has been throughout October. Some credit has to go to Dad who has really taken a back seat and is happy to be in the background at all times in total contrast to other son/ father operations where the press seem intent on only consorting post race with the winning assistant trainer as if he’s still in charge ( perhaps he is) if that is not the case why not take a back seat and give the trainer his head? The press could also seek out the head trainer first. There is still time to sound out the Yorkshire trainers’ runners as they are likely to continue sending out winners well into November. 
a first second third and fourth was the pick of several runners yesterday. 
Hopefully more thought provoking  selections from  Hugh today and hopefully I can tease out the value that the duff ones throw up.
I have already pointed out the conflicts of interest issues here which lead to these “loss leader “ selections and certainly the first race choice  was exactly one of those. Certainly in those type of handicaps it pays to stick with runners racing below a winning mark over and above a maiden unless there is a clear form reason to back such a runner and there truly was none.  Certainly a bookmaker closely aligned,  made a handsome  tidy profit on that first selection. Hopefully they paid some of that back on the last race……..

 

again on the road today but with the aid of generous pit stops will be posting Hugh’s selections and my early and at the post overview.

[Sporting Sam]

Hard to know what to make of this selection, but I was on tiger Beetle in December at the post and he came up trumps @ double carpet. The reason was not so much the horses ability but the physics and like a poster here who says I’m deluded someone suggested a class A drug was involved in believing that physics could have anything to do with the outcome of a race. well each to their own but even a cursory glance suggests there may well be something better than the now long gone 9/2 put up about tiger beetle 🪲. As ever and if something else can take this  it’s better waiting till  2025 hours to say so once all the factors are available to hand.
 

Published 9.11 - no further selections

TIGER BEETLE is lurking on a very attractive mark on his return to the all-weather in the extended 1m1f handicap at Wolverhampton this evening (8.30).

His sole success to date came when beating recent dual course winner Master Of Combat over this course and distance last December.

He was unsuited by the steady pace and poorly positioned towards the rear when fifth in a 0-85 handicap next time, and he bounced back from two moderate efforts at Kempton when third in a good time figure here in March.

Those three runs came off marks of 74 (twice) and 78, yet he’s able to race off a career-low rating of 63 here. This class 6 event is a much weaker race than the ones he has previously contested at this track. 

City Escape left the impression he should have won last time and looks the biggest danger, but Tiger Beetle, whose stable went close with a horse with a similar profile in Thapa VC on Tuesday, looks so well handicapped on his previous course-and-distance form that he has to be the selection. 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

8.30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1pt win TIGER BEETLE (9-2 bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, 4-1 general)

All prices correct at time of publishing - please

Edited October 26, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[MCLARKE]

Currently 4.70 with Betfair

[Sporting Sam]

wolves 2030

The draw data horse is prince Ali

the bottom weight here is caramay

The favourite whom I couldn’t earlier recommend is actually very lightly raced and is ridden by Rob Hornby who is in strong form having got up last night in Waterloo sunset and seems to save his best for the last race.

 

caramay

tiger Beetle

both win

prince Ali

each way

combination forecast all three runners 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.

on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[harry_rag]

Just to check my understanding (following on from the recent forecasts discussion) is it a case of that forecast (2 beats 4) returned £15 odd to a £1 stake and you’d have had to stake £6 to cover all the permutations for 3 horses? I’m guessing the return would have been better had they finished the other way round or (obviously)  if the two bigger priced horses had finished first and second.

Is the return universal (like SP) or does it vary depending on the firm you bet with?

[In Play Race Reader]

2 hours ago, Sporting Sam said:

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.

on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

No pressure 😂

[Sporting Sam]

6 hours ago, In Play Race Reader said:

No pressure 😂

“It’s not that (they mock my ideas) that bothers me,  it’s that they don’t have any original thoughts or ideas of their own,”

Nikola Tesla 

 

Quote Harry rag.

“Just to check my understanding (following on from the recent forecasts discussion) is it a case of that forecast (2 beats 4) returned £15 odd to a £1 stake and you’dhave had to stake £6 to cover all the permutations for 3 horses? I’m guessing the return would have been better had they finished the other way round or (obviously)  if the two bigger priced horses had finished first andsecond.

Is the return universal (like SP) or does it vary depending on the firm you bet with?”

thanks for the query Harry,

no I don’t think it varies, it is uniform the forecast. But had the other two finished in front the divi would have been higher a rough multiplication of the sps. My favoured horse Tiger Beetle got a slightly higher stake than second win  pick which  helped. He fairly sluiced up. It was very late on in the evening that  I realised there was good reason to rethink the race. I do look very hard at the draw it’s crucial,  in a way most don’t realise, as is the historical info around previous races physics doesn’t change. On to the Rugby Henry Arundell keep an eye out for him. Best winger since Offiah. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Bets

Published 9.07, 9.23 & 9.33 - all selections online

What do Fast Society, Sceptic, Totnes and Old Harrovian have in common? They’re all Andrew Balding-trained horses who won second time out on the all-weather after being well beaten on their debut on turf, and with that in mind SECRET SATIRE might be worth an each-way bet at long odds in the 1m fillies’ novice event at Lingfield today (1.55).

The four horses mentioned above were beaten 6.5 lengths, 8.25 lengths, 16.25 lengths and 19 lengths respectively on their debut, so it needn’t be off-putting that Secret Satire was beaten 11 lengths on her debut at Salisbury, especially as there were mitigating circumstances. She ran green, saw plenty of daylight once switched to the outer, and couldn’t sustain her run in the heavy ground.

It has to be said that this looks a potentially warm event, with plenty of likely-looking runners from top yards, but there’s also a definite chance that Secret Satire is going to leave her debut running well behind, with her stable’s form figures this year with horses switched from turf to all-weather on their second start reading 11118231232.

Heather Main has lost a few of her all-weather stalwarts at the HIT sales this week, but ENGLISH SPIRIT should be suited by the return to an artificial surface at Lingfield today, and providing he settles in the early stages he’s entitled to go well in the 1m2f handicap at Lingfield (4.50).

He’s been running creditably on turf lately but is arguably a bit better on the all-weather. Both his wins have come at Wolverhampton, and he’s now 2lb lower than when beating a fair field (including yesterday’s easy winner Tiger Beetle) in March.

He’s drawn wide, but there doesn’t look to be much pace and he should be able to take up a handy position. The key to his chance will probably be whether or not he settles, as he can take a keen hold, but if he doesn’t pull his chance away, he could go close at reasonable odds.

ON THE RIGHT TRACK is in form and his course record entitles him to be a big player in the 1m6f handicap at Wolverhampton (7.15).

He has three wins and a second from six starts here, and has excuses for the two moderate runs. He ran very well when third at Lingfield two outings ago in a much better race than this, and he’s unlikely to meet anything of the calibre of the two that beat him, or indeed the in-form fourth.

He ran well at Windsor last time and whilst he’s unproven over the 1m6f trip, he raced wide when he tried this trip previously. He looks to have plenty in his favour here with a good 5lb claimer booked and he can confirm that he’s better than a Class 6 performer round here.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

1.55 LINGFIELD

1pt each-way SECRET SATIRE (33-1 general)

4.50 LINGFIELD

1pt win ENGLISH SPIRIT (14-1 general)

7.15 WOLVERHAMPTON

2pts win ON THE RIGHT TRACK (13-2 Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Paddy Power

[Bang on]

16 hours ago, Sporting Sam said:

Good shout from Hugh which I initially doubted and wondered why he’d chosen the lucky last.

on closer inspection Tiger Beetle was dropping back in class here.
 I last backed this runner  (as I said) last December when he got up to win at a big price. (33/1.) . That was a class five and  in that race he beat recent two time winner master of combat.
I backed MOC just a few nights ago and Hugh tipped him in his previous win. Tiger Beetle was lightly raced with latest runs in June, July and August. Prince Ali made limited appeal but was the draw data horse. Using the adjusted system which factors in a draw anomily he was a strong fancy to be in the mix. caramay was prominent in tonight’s race but ultimately not in the mix at the business end. Missing the break helps if the pace is poor  and cavelluchio rallied late on to be third. Highly significant in the final analysis  is the physics of the the draw as all three horses of the first three home were drawn and weighted together in stall 9,8 and 7. That was the forecast of over £15  and a small each way return and a nice win return on Tiger Beetle.
I’m glad I took the time to thrash out the race and reconsider my initial assessment. 
not only were the first three home drawn together but they were three of the four top weights meaning they were in a handicap cluster. I’m more than happy to freely offer up this information eventually it will lead to a tricast. My forecasts and ultimately my forthcoming tricasts come from close analysis of previous outcomes to identify physics trends. Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

Tiger Beetle was running from 11lbs lower than it had won from within the last year so was 'well in'. In effect the market responded and the Fav beat the 2nd Fav.

[Bang on]

16 hours ago, Sporting Sam said:

Most likely my first tricast will be landed tomorrow. 

I look forward to it.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I look forward to it.

I find it highly unlikely but if he does land the tricast I think we owe him an apology 

[Sporting Sam]

A scintillating selection from Hugh Taylor won at 16/1 the 90 % strike rate was amazing and it would be great to know precisely how he sourced that statistic must have taken a lot of spade work. 👏. 
1650

olympicus

win

Bold Rigg

each way

are both Joseph O’Brien cast offs meeting again for the first time on course.

given the tipsters winning run (he’s on a treble ) English spirit win also gets the nod here. But there is a lot to like about the first mentioned of the three and form in beating Hakuna babe was franked this week when that runner won dropping back from class two.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

It is also pertinent to do a combo forecast of these three

English spirit 

bold ribb

olympicus

[Sporting Sam]

 

While we are here

dundalk 5pm

Ciorcal

each way

DUMB LOVE

WIN

***was second 

most unlikely I’ll be trying for the tricast today as I’m totally focussed on the rugby tonight along with a ton of agricultural commitments. So there are still a few days to go but no rush and so long as the winners continue I’m happy for now.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 7:15

An interesting tussle here and one of my favourite trainers for his commitment to his horses and his honesty mark usher always gives a heads up as to his chances 

We OTRT back to

@WolvesRaces

for his first run over 14f since Oct 20; with

@Lukecatton91

vfm 5lbs he has a cracking ew chance at the weights; should run well the constraint being whether or not he gets home over the last 2f.

  he may get the trip but that is the million dollar question ???

Ezmiralda

win

Alan King runner and very lightly raced no suprise if an improver tonight.

kittens dream

each way 

course and distance winner and if well is assured to get the trip.

one more selection to come in this race.

DOUBLETHETROUBLE

Each way

under Luke Morris for the first time has gone close the last few runs, that he gets this trip there is no doubt as he’s a hurdler and several seconds means he well handicapped and under the whirling dervish could go very close again……

Edited October 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Knocking on the door and one more race selections relevant to the thread this time.

wolves 7:45

you are my world

gatwick kitten

one for the ladies 

All each way

 

[Sporting Sam]

Doncaster 2:45
The form brought into this by Ballymount Boy in Doncaster’s listed class 1 affair looks good enough to win this listed contest.

He drops in class from group 1 and followed the progressive Vandeek in a group 2 who followed up at Newmarket recently no one got beat him at Hq while the selection got to within a length. Sectional comparison with races on the same card involving different horses are questionable. The last horse I backed coming off a win at longchamp was well beaten but this runner was not knocked about in high class company  there and may be better for the effort back in low class now given an extra week off and can duly frank the form from the vandeek race.

vandeek’s first two runs including that York race the newcomer was slowly away and it’s testament to both ballymount Boy and Andre Atzeni who must have had plenty of confidence going on to win the prix morny at deauville before James Doyle took over at Newmarket. Atzeni now plys his trade in Hong Kong where after a tricky start he is banging in the winner at both tracks on the rock including three days ago seen to great effect on PACKING BOLE at Sha tin. Coincidentally James Doyle takes over now on Ballymount Boy from Jason Hart who has been on board all three runs. He should now know what is needed here.
the draw data runner in stall 3 is  Moswaat  but this race has been won by stall four two times in the last three runnings which brings the win selection right into this.

 

Moswaat

each way 

Ballymount Boy

win

it’s also worth noting ballymount boy is dropping back down to 6 furlongs for the first time since finishing behind the unbeaten vandeek. Vandeek destroyed his field subsequently in a group 1 over this trip but won going away clear by even further 2:25 lengths both Ballymount boy’s  next runs at a higher level were over 7f dropping down to the trip he ran so well at behind a now proven and still unbeaten group 1 horse may be hugely stronger collaborative form than a cross compared sectional in a low grade race.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Chelmsford 7pm
Turn the tables
Each way
Meng tian
Win
In stall eight is the draw data horse with the highest stall and down below a winning mark.
Turn the tables in stall 1 is in the stellar opposite stall and with a seven pound claimer on board looks very nicely placed and expectations are not high which is ideal.

[Sporting Sam]

Chelmsford 8pm

last date

win

hasnt won for two years. But hasn’t had the Urgings of arc winning jockey Luke Morris the whirling dervish  before only course winner here and 8 lbs to play with…

MANY RIVERS

Eaxh way 

mauden whose dropped a mile and also has a half stone in hand here 

[Sporting Sam]

8:30

MICKS SPIRIT

WIN

MICKS SPIRIT

JOSIES KID

SO SLEEPY

COMBINATION FORECAST

[Sporting Sam]

No Hugh Taylor today and in his absence I’ll put up one or two.

There are one or two decent group races abroad on the flat.

his last national hunt pick was the winning selection in the grand national in April. 

Galway

1425

my friend the wind

win

Captain Jimmy

each way

a runner up in this year to the horse who’s won this twice on the bounce.

Has a way in this year with his close friend captain jimmy having a change of jockey from those two wins.

the captain though is dangerous to ignore.

14.50 ParisLongchamp - Prix Royal-Oak (Group 1)

Bubblegift

each way

ideally berth in group winning stall 3

The Good man

win

not so well placed in stall 8 and has it all to do from there but a stayer and conditions may suit above others.

Tashkhan 

win

the Aga Khan’s horse lost out to the two  incredibly well handicapped Irish stayers in the Cambridgeshire at new market and had no chance but ran on well rated high enough to make the transition to group class again and on best Irish form and the last run has a real chance.

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

The flat race in France didn’t produce a winner and attention turns to Churchill downs tonight at 2135 a graded group 2.

The going is described as “sloppy”. They don’t mince their words in the US or Hong Kong.  To win there is going to need to be ability to handle the going,  but class will also be a key factor and of those standing their ground 

MOONLIGHT (Win) is top rated.
A watch of the previous race off in the next few minutes may provide some clues.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

2135 Churchill Downs

“MOONLIGHT (Win) is top rated.
A watch of the previous race off in the next few minutes may provide some clues.”
 if moonlight handles the conditions this taking grey will take all the beating. Hung on to coattails of rival before asserting around the home turn and won going away by 8 lengths will still need more here up stiffly in grade. Last selection stateside last night won at 8-1 

Moonlight win 

******
ran on strongly for second but overall never on terms.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Sporting Sam