Racing Chat - Saturday 1st July

[The Brigadier]

The main meeting today is from the North East and Newcastle’s big day with the feature race being the Northumberland Plate, run earlier than usual due to TV scheduling with the Women’s World Cup at 14.05. We have three others from there with the consolation Plate as well as three from Newmarket. The going is, of course, standard for Newcastle on the Tapeta surface and following watering and 11mm of rain on Thursday good at Newmarket. Here are my thoughts and tips on how to beat the bookies.

 

Newcastle 12:20

Just the nine have declared for this 6F class 2 handicap with the one to beat last year’s winner Raatea, who is trained by Norton trainer Julie Camacho who must still be pinching herself following her stable star Shaquille’s Group 1 victory in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last week. The six year old gelding Raatea is 5lb higher this time around but did win rather cosily last year by 2L and comes here on the back of a neck victory at Haydock for which she’s 3lb higher now. Jason Hart rode her last year and is re-united today.

His biggest threat may come from one of the two three year olds in the race in the shape of Harry & Roger Charlton’s Batal Dubai who scored in novice company over course and distance last September. Forget his re-appearance run as that was on heavy ground (and the stable were out of form) and he showed enough last time at Windsor to hint that his time is near again.

Lethal Levi was a bit disappointing in the Wokingham at Ascot last Saturday and has yet to race on this surface whilst the Irish runner Coachello, trained by Gordon Elliott has plenty of weight on here. I’ll take Raatea to continue his trainer’s golden spell although I do fear Batal Dubai.

 

RAATEA 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Newmarket 12:40

Ten juveniles go to post for the opener at Newmarket today, the listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes run over 6F. The likely favourite is the Charlie Appleby Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She bumped into a useful newcomer of Karl Burke’s on her debut at Doncaster when runner up to Carla’s Way, beaten 2 1/4L. That one was a bit disappointing at Ascot when only finishing 8th in the Albany when going off 10/3 favourite. Star Of Mystery went on from there to win a nine runner Haydock novice stakes when a 1/3 chance by eleven lengths and will be hard to beat here under William Buick.

The big danger may turn out to be Charlie Johnston’s What A Question who looked useful when making a winning debut at Goodwood a fortnight ago, winning by 4L. She may not have beaten much (only three have run from the race since showing very little) but she visually did it in fine style and is worthy of her place here under James Doyle.

Richard Hannon’s Ziggy’s Phoenix has shown promise in her short career winning twice but I think we know where we are with her whilst Clive Cox’s Unbreak My Heart won at Bath last time on firm ground and should appreciate this slightly easier surface.

At the prices I’ll play each way on the Johnston filly What A Question.

 

WHAT A QUESTION 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Newcastle 12:55

An interesting renewal of the Group 3 JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes with eight speedsters confirmed to run. The best treated at today’s weights is Hugo Palmer’s Brad The Brief. He hasn’t been seen for 259 days but has a very good record fresh with form figures of 111 following a break of 190 days or more so possibly won’t lack for fitness. A Group 2 winner at The Curragh 15 months ago he was last seen when down the field in the Group 1 Champions Sprint on Champions Day last October. Oisin Murphy is booked and he should go well. Also on the shortlist is James Tate’s Mount Athos (he also runs the trip dropper Iconic Moment here). He looked a sprinter going places following two easy victories in handicap company at Kempton prior to a rather disappointing 2nd to the re-opposing Spycatcher on soft ground when last seen in April. He’s been off ten weeks since and has had a wind operation so maybe he was struggling in that aspect on soft ground that day. He’s only ever run at 7F but has always shown a sharp turn of foot so dropping back to 6F may be a good move. I included him in my flat ten to follow for the season as a potential sprinter so he’s worth chancing today. William Haggas’s Tiber Flow has a good record on this track of 112 with the second coming on All-Weather Championships Day when short headed by El Caballo 16 months ago. He’s not been disgraced in two starts this season and is another with claims. Spycatcher ran in this last year, going off just 7/2 but ran a shocker beating just one home and that has to be a concern here even if he did beat Mount Athos easily in April.

A tight contest but I’m sticking with Mount Athos.

 

MOUNT ATHOS 1 point each way @ 11/2 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 13:15

A small but selective field of just five assemble for this listed Fred Archer Stakes run over 1M 4F for four year olds and upwards. It’s a tough race to decipher with the two principals coming back from lengthy absences. The Charlie Appleby trained New London hasn’t been seen for 293 days and sports a first time tongue tie as well as having had a wind operation since last seen. A Group 3 winner at Goodwood last July and runner up ( beaten 2 1/2L) in the St Leger, he’s a classy staying type and if straight enough should be hard to beat despite having to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his Goodwood victory.

At today’s weights the William Haggas trained Al Aasy is rated a 2lb super horse but he too hasn’t been seen for 420 days and is a quirky sort to boot who may prefer more cut in the ground than is likely this afternoon. He has won first time out the last two seasons so maybe an absence won’t be too much of an issue for him.

Kemari appears to be the Godolphin second string here although has always shown ability whilst James Horton’s Phantom Flight has run well on both of his outings this season in listed company at 10F and takes the step up to a mile and a half for the first time here. His dam stayed this far and his two winning half brothers both won at 1M 4F so in the hope that the trip may bring about a bit of improvement he’s the selection to small stakes with a few question marks to be answered with the front two in the market. James Horton has had a torrid time this season with his main patron disgracing himself and hopefully Phantom Flight can put a smile back on his face.

 

PHANTOM FLIGHT 1 point win @ 17/2 BetVictor

 

Newcastle 13:30

The Consolation Northumberland Vase is for those that missed the cut in the Plate and has seen fourteen line up over the same distance of the Plate of 2M 56 yards. Six of the fourteen are trying this trip for the first time including recent Lingfield 1M 4F one-two Appier, trained by Sean Woods and Citizen General, trained by Ed Dunlop. The latter is 5lb better off for a beating of 1 3/4L and there shouldn’t be much between the pair though as I said earlier stamina may well be an issue in a race where you will need to stay well.

Irish handler Matthew J Smith brings over a brace of six year old’s with clear preference for his La Hacienda, who racked up three handicap victories last Summer rising 13lb in the weights. If her re-appearance run can be believed she has to have a big chance today. She split Taipan and Wordsworth who are rated 100 and 106 respectively so as she can race today off of only 85 could have improved further. Towards the bottom of the handicap we have Ian Williams’ Blow Your Horn who’s chasing a four timer following wins at Doncaster, Beverley & Pontefract and stays well. He too can be competitive. The one I’m keen in though is the Keith Dagleish trained five year old Thermoscope. He looked a vastly improved horse when bolting up on his seasonal re-appearance and first start for Dagleish at Musselburgh in May, landing the odds by 9L. That was over two miles and he was never stronger than at the finish. His only subsequent start came over 3F shorter in a dawdling type of race where he finished only 3rd of four beaten 4 1/2L. He’s a lot better than that with the added bonus of course experience (he was a course and distance winner for his previous stable of Brian Ellison back in October) and looks the one to be with today. I can’t however resist a saver on La Hacienda who could be very well treated.

 

THERMOSCOPE 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

LA HACIENDA 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 13:50

Only six run in this 7F Group 3 Criterion Stakes but five can be given a chance of sorts. Jumby impressed when coming late to win the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock last time and can go well again although a 3lb penalty for that victory hardly helps.

William Haggas’s Aldaary is the best in at the weights and would have appreciated Wednesday nights rain and constant watering as he’s a real mud lark who loves to get his toe in. His form figures when the word soft (or heavy) area in the title read 1113111 whilst without reads 557. We haven’t seen him since he won first time out last season (he’s three from three first time out in his career)in a listed contest at Haydock in May 2022 but if there is sufficient give in the ground he’s the one to beat.

John & Thady Gosden’s Audience hasn’t been seen since winning at Leicester in October and will need to improve to worry these whilst Sam Maximus is trying a new trip of 7F and again will need to improve plenty.

Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Shadow takes a drop in class having contested and not been disgraced in the Lockinge (3rd at 33/1 to Modern Games beaten 2 1/2L) and 5th in Queen Anne Stakes (5th to Triple Time beaten 5L). Both of those were at a mile and he takes a drop in trip today.

Pogo was 4 1/2L behind Berkshire Shadow at Ascot last week having taken a keen hold and with a drop to 7F very much in his favour can get much closer today. He has an outstanding record at Newmarket with the two racecourses combined reading 1112221 with a perfect two from two at today’s July course including this race last year. In a tight contest I’ll take Berkshire Shadow to confirm last weeks placings with Pogo with the drying conditions likely going against Aldaary, who it wouldn’t be a shock were he to be pulled out.

 

BERKSHIRE SHADOW 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365

 

Newcastle 14:05

A wide open renewal of the prestigious handicap. Many hold chances with current favourite Post Impressionist an interesting runner although we haven’t seen him this season so he’s hard to assess. Horses that come here from the Royal Ascot meeting from the previous week have a pretty poor record ( 2 winners from last 17 years) so I’m happy to by-pass the likes of Calling The Wind (2nd in Ascot Stakes), Law Of The Sea (4th), Zoffee (6th) and Themaxwecan (12th) and pick something a bit fresher.

Sir Mark Prescott’s Omniscient is an intriguing runner, stepping up in trip on his seasonal re-appearance whilst Adjuvant has questions to answer on trip and surface here.

It would be a fairytale for small Welsh trainer Deborah Faulkner were she to strike with her well bred Golden Rules who is obviously a difficult horse to train but stays well and should run well.

In an open race I’ll be backing Hughie Morrison’s Vino Victrix who showed his stamina and ability when running runner up in last season’s Cesarewitch to Run For Oscar and who’s two below par runs this season can be put down to the soft ground. He looks a value each way play here at a nice price even if his starting gate of six could have been higher. I also want Welsh challenger Golden Rules as part of my staking plan as he has plenty going for him and would be a wonderful story for such a small operation if he were to pull it off.

 

VINO VICTRIX 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

GOLDEN RULES 1 point each way @ 6/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap this Saturday is the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. This race has been run since 1833, it was originally run on a Wednesday and was a holiday for workers in the North East and became known as the Pitmen’s Derby. Since 2016 it has been run on the all-weather course.

It is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 2 miles and 56 yards. The off time is 14.05.

20 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics since the race was transferred to the all-weather and these are my key conclusions.

Horses that finished 1st or 2nd last time have an excellent record with 6 wins from 38 runs and a profit at BSP of 56 points. The remainder have 1 win from 99 runs and a loss of 78 points.

Outsiders do not have a good record. Those outside the top 6 in the betting have just 1 win from 88 attempts.

Horses that have run recently have a poor record. Those that ran less than 2 weeks ago have 0 wins from 32 runs.

 

This leaves 4 horse.

OMNISCIENT 10/1

POST IMPRESSIONIST 5/1

ADJUVANT 13/2

GOLDEN RULES 6/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 6 places.