Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

EW Double System

slapdash

By slapdash
in Betting Systems & Strategy

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 964
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System A. Times Review 3.30 Pont B. Rubies 3.30 Pont C. Blythe Spirit 3.30 Pont D. Hill of Howth 4.30 Pont E. Ringarooma 5.00 Pont F. Didn't Tell My Wife 5.00 Pont Bets: All doubles involving A,B,C,D,E at Sporting Bet. Prices: 12/1, 14/1, 20/1, 10/1, 25/1 respectively. That's 7 doubles for a total stake of 14 points. F is 50/1 only at Stan James, who don't have the best price on any of the selections from the other races.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System G. Winds of Change 4.30 Pont H. Peas n Beans 4.30 Pont Bets: CG, CH , EG, EH at Sporting Bet BG at Totesport FG at Stan James Prices: SP for G and 100/1 for H. Same prices as mentioned before for the others. The prices on A and B have gone at SportingBet, but Totesport still has 14/1 for B.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System

A. Times Review 3.30 Pont placed B. Rubies 3.30 Pont lost C. Blythe Spirit 3.30 Pont lost D. Hill of Howth 4.30 Pont lost E. Ringarooma 5.00 Pont lost F. Didn't Tell My Wife 5.00 Pont lost G. Winds of Change 4.30 Pont placed H. Peas n Beans 4.30 Pont lost I. Aberdeen Park 5.00 Pont lost
Thanks to the price on Times Review getting cut, I didn't post the AG double, so that's a loss of 26 points today. Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 252 points. Current bank:986.89 points. P/L: -13.11 points. (win -36, place +22.89) Yield: -5.20%
Link to comment
Share on other sites
slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System

You seem to be getting a lot of selections at the moment Slapdash. Good job you dropped the trebles otherwise handling this system would have to be your full time job I think !
Yes, I think about 4 or 5 is typical for a weekday, so there have been a lot recently. It doesn't apply today, but in the last few days there have been a lot more large-field handicap races than usual. I'm not too disappointed about today's results. There were a few very big price selections (100/1 and 50/1) and I don't expect those to pay out that often. And if I'd posted the AG double in time, I'd only have lost six points on the day. I was on it myself (I'm afraid I put my own bets on before I post them here ... selfish, I know), but SportingBet were limiting stakes on EW bets in the Pontefract 4.30 even more than usual, so the amount they let me have on it made Valiant's poker winnings look like first prize in the WSOP main event.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DeepBlueDevilFish

DeepBlueDevilFish

Posted
Posted

Re: EW Double System Another busy day on this thread then Slapdash. I hinted in an earlier post how interested parties might adversely affect your selection criteria for this system and I must admit that I still have some concerns about this happening especially seeing the number of selections that are being thrown up recently. I'm probably just being paranoid but I'm not sure how you would protect yourself from bookmaker driven accounts on Betfair. From the boomakers point of view they see you getting good results on Sports Punter and no doubt a number of people following your selections as a result. They then learn that your main method of selecting these horses is from the place market on Betfair. Great they think all we have to do is chuck a few pounds at a few donkeys on the place market we choose on the races we think he'll be interested in and we'll see some action on these donkeys and make a bit more money on them and get much better books for those races. I hope I'm just being a doubting Thomas but I can't easily see how you'd be protected from this sort of retaliatory tactic on Betfair. What are your thoughts on this sort of problem ? Do you feel you've got enough safe-guards in place ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System

A. Flight of Esteem 3.25 Ling (12/1) placed (SP 9/1) B. Silent Storm 3.25 Ling (25/1) lost (SP 18/1) C. Giust in Temp 3.45 Worc (25/1) lost (SP 28/1) D. Canadian Storm 3.45 Worc (50/1) lost (SP 40/1) E. Mad Carew 3.25 Ling (16/1) lost (SP 14/1) F. Nesnaas 3.45 Worc (11/1) lost (SP 15/2) G. Cash On 3.25 Ling (8/1) lost (SP 8/1) H. The Composer 4.40 Hayd (33/1) lost (SP 28/1) I. Rocket Force 4.40 Hayd (50/1) placed (SP 25/1) J. Mixing 4.40 Hayd (25/1) lost (SP 20/1) K. Arry Dash 4.05 Hayd (25/1) lost (SP 20/1) L. Kindling 5.10 Hayd (15/2) won (SP 6/1)
Bets with returns: AI 54 points AL 11.5 points 40 points staked, and mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot, a profit of 25.5 points on the day. Enough to pay for my entry into the PL Poker League game this evening. I'm still backing these in singles as well as doubles myself, but I only forgot to put the single on Kindling, didn't I? banghead.gif Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 292 points. Current bank: 1012.39 points. P/L: +12.39 points. (win -56, place +68.39) Yield: +4.24%
Link to comment
Share on other sites
slapdash

slapdash

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: EW Double System Some early thoughts on your worries, DBDF. These are mostly concerned with the "large handicap" system and some don't apply to the other system; I haven't thought about that so much yet. You're certainly right that it would be easy and cheap for somebody (a bookmaker or a sports-punter rival tongue2.gif) to sabotage the system by backing horses on the Betfair place market. The amount of money in the market when I look at it is quite small, so it wouldn't take a lot. So the question is whether it would be worth the bookmakers' while and also whether I would notice if they started doing this. Some points: I don't think that the large number of selections in the last few days is significant. I think it's almost entirely down to the large number of "large handicaps": today, for example, there were six of these although there were only three race meetings. Maybe three on a day like this would be more typical. And I don't think the bookies would go as far as putting on extra races to get my money off me. ohwell.gif The number of selections for the other system has been smaller than usual, if anything. The starting price of my "large handicap" selections is almost always shorter than the price I get. E.g., today I put the SP's in the results above, and you can see that one had a longer SP (28/1 compared to 25/1), one was the same (8/1), and the other ten had shorter SP's (in some cases much shorter: 50/1 --> 25/1, 12/1 --> 9/1 and 11/1 --> 15/2). If the bookmakers tried to trick me into tipping some no-hopers, then this might no longer be the case, and I'd notice that. Also, all my "large handicap" selections are at early prices that are better than other bookies and at worst only marginally worse than the win price on Betfair. Combining this with the fact that the SP is almost always shorter, if the bookies tricked me into betting on these then they would be tricking me into betting at terms that are relatively unfavourable to them. By the way, it would be a lot more expensive for them to manipulate the Betfair win market to influence my selections.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...