slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Share Posted September 14, 2005 I've just posted in my "Large handicap early price system" thread to say that I'm putting the system to rest in its present form: http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?p=266091#post266091 You can read that thread for the exact figures, but after about 200 each-way bets I roughly broke even. The place halves of the bets had about a 23% strike rate, with the successful bets having average odds of a bit over 6.00 (for the place) for a gratifying yield of about 46.5%. But the win halves of the bets had only about a 3% strike rate, with the successful bets having average odds of about 18.00 for a less gratifying negative yield of about -47%. Now if these figures for the yields continued to be accurate, then an EW double on two of these selections would be quite profitable in the long run. The average yield on the win double would be about -72%, but the average yield on the place double would be about 115%, for a total yield of about 21%. In fact, even if you ignored the occasional return from the win doubles, the yield from the place doubles would still ensure about a 7% yield. So this is what I'm going to do here. Since the selections are based on getting best early prices, this will need two or more selections in different races where the same bookmaker has the best odds. If anybody is tempted to follow these, I should point out that there will be a low strike rate, so please use low stakes. Based on the figures above, the strike rate for the place doubles would be about one in 19, and the strike rate for the win doubles would be less than one in a thousand (maybe one or two successes a year at high odds). That's not quite right, because the odds will vary, and that should make the strike rate a bit higher. So I'm not going to be discouraged by long losing spells. I'll also be including selections from the other system I use on sports-punter.com, whose profits also come mainly from the place halves of each-way bets. This will increase the number of bets, and since these tend to be at lower odds, it should also increase the strike-rate, but they have had a lower yield from the place bets (but a lower negative yield from the win bets), which should decrease the yield during the long spells between win doubles coming in. If you want to know which system a particular selection comes from, just see if it's a 16+ runner handicap race or not. Many sensible people on this forum frequently preach betting singles rather than multiple bets. I agree with them, but each-way doubles can be an exception. I don't know why bookies calculate EW doubles the way they do, but this is one way that they are generous. Putting EW bets in doubles can turn singles with negative expectation into doubles with positive expectation. I may include trebles as well, I haven't decided yet. These would have even lower strike rate, of course, but hey, I don't do the lottery. All bets will be 1 point EW, and I'll start with a bank of 1000 points (to emphasize that stakes should be small). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 14, 2005 Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: EW Double System :ok GL in your new venture, Mr. S..........:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 14, 2005 Author Share Posted September 14, 2005 Re: EW Double System Thanks, Mr. S, I might need it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Re: EW Double System OK, since if there are a lot of selections, a given horse could be included in a lot of doubles, to save myself typing the names repeatedly I'll list the qualifying horses A,B,C,... and then for example BD will mean an each way double on horses B and D on my list, and BDE will be an each-way treble on B,D and E. I'll list qualifiers even if there's currently no other selection with the same bookie to put it in a double with, in case there is one later. For today: A. Gala Sunday 2.20 Pont. B. Farne Island 4.30 Yarm. C. Laylati 4.30 Yarm. D. Lady Algarhoud 5.00 Yarm. And bets, with prices I'm taking and at which bookmaker (some of the selections that don't come from the large handicap system will be at starting price: CD (SP, 33/1) Stan James. AB (16/1, 20/1) Sporting Bet. AC (16/1, SP) Sporting Bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Re: EW Double System E. Taboor 5.00 Yarm. Bets: BE (20/1, 14/1) Sporting Bet CE (SP, 14/1) Sporting Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 Re: EW Double System Lady Algarhoud was a NR, and Laylati (at 9/2) and Taboor (with a 25p Rule 4 deduction) were placed. So two of the five doubles had a return: CD (1.90 points) and CE (6.89 points). Total loss of 1.21 points on the day. Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 10 points. Current bank: 998.79 points. P/L: -1.21 points. Yield: -12.10% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System A. Quaffle 3.40 Ayr B. Ayam Jantan 3.40 Ayr C. Irelands Cross 3.40 Ayr D. Dabbers Ridge 3.50 Newb E. Valentino Swing 2.55 Nott F. Daniella 3.30 Nott G. Jilly Why 3.30 Nott H. Jakarmi 5.35 Nott I. Sound of Fleet 5.35 Nott Bets to follow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System BF (SP, 14/1) BI (SP, 33/1) FI (14/1, 33/1) BFI (SP,14/1,33/1) all at William Hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System CD,CE,DE,CDE,BD,BDE and BE at Sporting Bet, with prices B: SP C: 11/1 D: 8/1 E: 20/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System BF and BG at Stan James, with prices B:SP F:14/1 G:40/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System BE, EF and BEF at Ladbrokes, prices: B:SP E:20/1 F:14/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System Sorry, I included BE twice by mistake. Scrub one of them. 11 doubles and 4 trebles, for a total stake of 30 units, I make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System I also included BF twice, didn't I? This is too hard. Make that 10 doubles and 4 trebles for a total stake of 28 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System One more selection: J. Doitnow 3.50 Newbury Bets: BJ,FJ,GJ,BFJ, BGJ at Stan James. Prices: B:SP F:14/1 G:40/1 J:20/1 Making a total of 13 doubles and 6 trebles. Total stake 38 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System And another. Hope it's not like this every day. K. Linda Green 3.30 Nott Bets: BK,JK, BJK at Stan James. Prices: B:SP J:20/1 K:12/1 Making 15 doubles, 7 trebles in total. Total stake 44 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted September 16, 2005 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System Slapdash - is there a reason why horse A isn't included in any of your selections ? Should those doubled up BE and BF selections perhaps be AE and AF ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted September 16, 2005 Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System Looks promising so far Slapdash. At least one EW treble in there so far plus a few winning EW doubles too. :clap :clap Shame horses E and G didn't come together though ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System The price dropped on A before I figured out what bets it should go in. Same for horse H. Bit of a frustrating day. After waiting months for a winner in my "large handicap" system, I get two at 40/1 and 20/1 two days after I stop posting them individually! And the 40/1 shot is useless for this system as it was only paired with losers. One more to run at 33/1, but that's not in any live bets either. I'm going to bang my head against the wall if that wins as well! Still, shouldn't grumble. A reasonable profit on the day, but could have been spectacular if only Stan James had offered 20/1 on Valentino Swing like several other bookies did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System The price dropped on A before I figured out what bets it should go in. Same for horse H. Actually, that's not quite right. Only one bookie had the best price on A, and horse H was the only other one where they had the best price. And the price on horse H dropped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System One more to run at 33/1, but that's not in any live bets either. I'm going to bang my head against the wall if that wins as well! It was placed. I think that's worth one bang. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System A. Quaffle 3.40 Ayr lost B. Ayam Jantan 3.40 Ayr lost C. Irelands Cross 3.40 Ayr placed D. Dabbers Ridge 3.50 Newb placed E. Valentino Swing 2.55 Nott won F. Daniella 3.30 Nott lost G. Jilly Why 3.30 Nott won H. Jakarmi 5.35 Nott placed I. Sound of Fleet 5.35 Nott placed J. Doitnow 3.50 Newb lost K. Linda Green 3.30 Nott placed Bets that had returns: CD returned 9.3 points. CE 18.6 points. DE 18 points. CDE 55.8 points. Profit on the day of 57.7 points. Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 54 points. Current bank: 1056.49 points. P/L: +56.49 points. Yield: +104.61% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 16, 2005 Author Share Posted September 16, 2005 Re: EW Double System Just a few thoughts after a rather hectic day for the system. If it involved this much work every day, I couldn't really spare the time to post them all here. But today had a rather spectacular number of selections, and luckily it won't often be like this (on a weekday, at least). When there are a large number of selections and a given horse goes into many different bets, I should really be reducing the stakes. But to keep things as simple as possible, I'll stick to level stakes of one point EW. Also the stakes on trebles (if I ought to be doing them at all) should really be smaller. I backed the trebles myself at half the stakes of the doubles, and probably I should use even smaller stakes than that. Having missed out on more than 400 points profit on sports-punter.com in the last couple of days, I think I may go back to posting my "large handicap system" selections there, even though it's closing the stable door after the horses have bolted home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: EW Double System A. The Crooked Ring 1.50 Ayr B. Cadogen Square 5.05 Catt C. Piper Lily 5.05 Catt D. Dig Deep 5.25 Newb E. Caly Dancer 5.25 Newb Bets: AD (28/1,14/1 Stan James) BE (20/1,66/1 UKBetting) CE (20/1,66/1 UKBetting) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: EW Double System F. Zeydnaa 4.35 Catt G. Look Again 3.20 Newb H. Thyolo 3.20 Newb I. Easy Laughter 3.25 War J. Icannshift 5.35 War Bets: AI (28/1,33/1 Stan James) DI (14/1,33/1 Stan James) ADI (28/1,14/1,33/1 Stan James) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: EW Double System More bets. At Sporting Bet, all doubles and trebles on D,E,F,G,H,I,J, except for those involving two horses in the same race and DI (already done). Prices 14/1,66/1,14/1,50/1,80/1,33/1,12/1 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: EW Double System Including the earlier bets, that's a total of 23 doubles and 26 trebles for a total stake of 98 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: EW Double System Bloomin' 'ell. These horses usually start at a shorter price than the early price I get, but this must be a record. Easy Laughter (horse I) was 33/1 with several bookies, but started at 5/1. Not that it helps when the horse doesn't get placed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: EW Double System A. The Crooked Ring 1.50 Ayr lost B. Cadogen Square 5.05 Catt won C. Piper Lily 5.05 Catt lost D. Dig Deep 5.25 Newb won E. Caly Dancer 5.25 Newb lost F. Zeydnaa 4.35 Catt placed G. Look Again 3.20 Newb lost H. Thyolo 3.20 Newb lost I. Easy Laughter 3.25 War lost J. Icannshift 5.35 War lost The last couple of days have not been a good advertisement for doing these in doubles, really. Two winners (at 20/1 and 14/1) and one placed, but only one double (DF) had a return of 20.25 points, for a loss of 77.75 points on the day. Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 152 points. Current bank: 978.74 points. P/L: -21.26 points. Yield: -13.99% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: EW Double System All of today's selections are from my original sports-punter.com system. A. Abbondanza 3.00 Ham B. Find It Out 3.00 Ham C. Fire Two 3.00 Ham D. All For Laura 4.45 Ham E. Slip Dance 4.45 Ham Bets at Betfred. All 6 doubles involving a horse from each race. Prices SP, 25/1, SP, 7/1, 12/1 respectively. 12 points staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: EW Double System A. Abbondanza 3.00 Ham placed (20/1) B. Find It Out 3.00 Ham lost C. Fire Two 3.00 Ham placed (7/4) D. All For Laura 4.45 Ham lost E. Slip Dance 4.45 Ham won So two of the doubles had a return: AE returned 17 points. CE returned 4.59 points. 9.59 points profit today. Starting bank: 1000 points. Staked: 164 points. Current bank: 988.33 points. P/L: -11.67 points. Yield: -7.12% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.