Aintree Trends and Statistics

[MCLARKE]

My Cheltenham series of statistical analyses had some successes but many of the strategies resulted in very low strike rates. 

I am going to try a different approach for Aintree and limit my data to those horses at the top of the market. I will concentrate on those horses that are in the top 4 in the forecast betting.

This is a profitable approach in it's own right with 122 wins from 737 runners and a level stakes profit of 182 points at BSP. The AE is 1.10. It has also shown a profit every single year of my 9 year analysis. In addition it has also found the winner of the Grand National in 5 of the last 8 years.

Stick to the class 1 races. Class 2 races have shown a 21 point loss with an AE of 0.81.

Avoid those races at the minimum distance of 2 miles. These have resulted in a loss of 24 points with an AE of 0.79.

 

Areas of potential increased profitability include.

Odds last time between 2/1 and 50/1. 104 wins from 589 runs, profit 222 points, AE 1.20.

Horse ridden by a different jockey than last time. 49 wins from 260 runs, profit 111 points, AE 1.38.

Distance of race different to last time (more or less than 1 furlong). 54 wins from  276 runs, profit 191 points, AE 1.40.

Days since last win greater than 75. 60 wins from 346 runs, profit 153 points, AE 1.29.

Consistency in the last 2 years factor between 0.54 and 0.38. 49 wins from 222 runs, profit 136 points, AE 1.53.

 

Whilst the strike rate for handicaps is lower the AE is better at 1.18. There have been 29 wins from 267 runs and a profit of 108 points.

Stick to distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and above. 25 wins from 191 runs, profit 134 points, AE 1.49.

Avoid horses going down in class (based on value of the race). 24 wins from 175 races, profit 146 points, AE 1.61

Bigger fields show the best results. Stick to races with at least 17 runners. 25 wins from 206 runners, profit 142 points, AE 1.45.

Weight carried last time between 10st 8lbs and 11st 4 lbs. 21 wins from 127 runs, profit 158 points, AE 1.74.

 

The record for grade 1 races is 67 wins from 313 runs with a profit of 64 points and an AE of 1.09.

Horses should be running with a similar OR to the last run, no more than 3lbs higher or 2lbs lower. 51 wins from 184 runs, profit 96 points, AE 1.32.

Avoid horses that were 1st last time. 49 wins from 216 runs, profit 98 points, AE 1.25.

OR between 145 and 153. 29 wins from 109 runs, profit 51 points, AE 1.46.

 

Hopefully plenty of pointers there for a profitable 3 days. Fingers crossed that the success of fancied horses continues !

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

A good start with all races on day 1 being won by horses in the top 4 of the betting forecast (although one was Constitution Hill at 2/15).