Premier League

[owenclass]

This should be coming in February and it is a tough event to bet on as it lasts nearly three months

Edited January 19, 2023 by owenclass

[Fader]

full line up announced :

Michael Smith
Peter Wright
MVG
Gerwyn Price
Johnny Clayton
Nathan Aspinall
Dimitri Van Den Bergh
Chris Dobey

fully agree with 6 of those 8. Not sure about Aspinall and Van Den Bergh. Feel like although he probably wouldn't do that great, Humphries should be there above those and Ross Smith, who has won a ranking event recently. Even Noppert/Anderson would be disappoined. Perhaps it's time to have 12 in the Premier League.

[daveg]

Impossible to please everyone, but definitely agree that van den Bergh is lucky to be there - don’t think the PDC wanted it to be too Brit-centric so had to pick another European player, although you could definitely argue Noppert deserved it more than DVDB. Humphries must be very disappointed to miss out after the year he’s had, Cullen was within 1mm of winning it last year so is another who is  pretty unlucky, and the European Champion Ross Smith doesn’t get a chance either. 

Time to either increase the field size or put down some set criteria for qualification.

 

[Fader]

I'm going to take Clayton as a bet for the Premier League. I'm not entirely convinced he should even have been picked but I know that he is determined to show his worth because he was saying so prior to it, at The Masters. If we look back last year at this event, when it was "mini-tournaments" each week, Claytons average was 97.86. He Lost to Cullen in the semi-final, who then went on to miss winning the PL by 1mm. I think at 10/1 he is worth a bet. Not forgetting he also won the Premier League the year prior, in 2021. As a debut. Infact, he is the only player other than MVG to win this, in this field of 8.

2pts e/w J.Clayton to win Premier League 10/1 betvictor

 

[daveg]

Just the one outright for me, and it’s for Gerwyn Price to finish bottom of the league table. It may be a bit surprising but Price doesn’t have a particularly good record in the Premier League, having never made the play-offs in four previous attempts. On his debut season in 2018, when the format was different, he had an absolute nightmare, finishing bottom of the league without a win to his name. In the next two years he finished 5th, before having to pull out in 2021 due to Covid. Last year, when the tournament switched to its current format, he finished seventh of eight, with just Gary Anderson below him.

We know the crowd will be against Price in most of the venues, ten of the 16 nights are in England, and there’s only one night in his Welsh homeland. We saw at the World Championships how he struggled with a partisan crowd on his back, and particularly in England he will probably face a similar reaction.

The favourites for this market are Chris Dobey, Nathan Aspinall and Dimitri van den Bergh, but they will all feel they have something to prove, given the amount of debate surrounding their inclusion in the competition. Aspinall and van den Bergh have both been in the Premier league before, and Aspinall in particular has performed very well, making the play-offs in both previous attempts.

In a competition where Price has finished in the bottom two on two of his previous four attempts, 16/1 about him finishing bottom this time around looks like a fair bet.

1pt on Gerwyn Price to finish bottom @ 16/1 (Paddypower)

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, Fader said:

2pts e/w J.Clayton to win Premier League 10/1 betvictor

 

1 hour ago, daveg said:

1pt on Gerwyn Price to finish bottom @ 16/1 (Paddypower)

The RP are very much on your wavelengths with their outright tips being Clayton to win and Price not to make the play-offs. Given the consensus I’m persuaded to follow. On Clayton e/w at 11/1 with Lads (using boost) or Uni and Price not to make the play-offs at 13/10 with Hills. I suppose I might as well take the 31p Paddy will allow me on Price finishing bottom as well! 

[Fader]

I'm going with Peter Wright to win the first night. I think Clayton beats Van Den Bergh, the Smith Vs MVG match could go either way but you'd think that the winner of that SHOULD make the final. I think the bottom half is where the value would lie. I love Dobey, 100/1 winner, he's a star in my eyes haha but this is a debut season and the PL is not the same kind of crowds as you see in the other events. I think Peter beats him and I don't rate Price at the moment or Aspinall so by process of elimation really, Wright is my pick. I was tempted with Clayton at 7s but I have him as an outright and winning the night would give him more points to do so, so I'll just go with Wright for now.

2pts P.Wright to win Night 1 4/1 paddypower

[Fader]

Have to have a go at a 4-fold each week too.

1pt - Clayton, MVG, Wright & Aspinall 10/1 paddypower (money back if one loses)

[Fader]

Gezzy was pants. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Price walked away from Darts before end of the year.

Not really sure how Wright lost and Claytons doubles went to pot. Not a great first week but I've never done that great at the lottery that is the Premier League

[Fader]

Still very much early days but I still think Clayton will do well and make the play-offs. It's not like his performance was bad. 

[Fader]

It's Night 2 tonight of the PDC Premier League. Here is the line up and tournament draw :

Smith/Clayton
Aspinall/Wright
-----------------------
Price/Dobey
MVG/Van Den Bergh

We're in Cardiff this week and so I think Price/Clayton will rise in stock. Price was shocking last week but once again he was being booed left, right and center. This is one of those rare locations where he may actually be cheered and that could quite easily ignite him. He could lose to Dobey with a 90 average or he could win the night with a 111 average. I just can't back him right now. Clayton though, he is back-able and he did very little wrong last week. He lost with a 100+ average and really it was only a mix of doubling and Van Den Bergh turning up for once that meant he went out. 

I'm giving Clayton another chance this week. Last year, in Cardiff, Johnny made the final of this week and lost out to Peter Wright. To be fair to Michael Smith, he did nothing wrong last week, too. 100 average for him in his defeat to MVG. I feel like the winner of that tie beats Wright or Aspinall and makes the final. In the bottom half it wouldn't suprise me if Dobey came through again. It's funny because he is hitting 95 average but still winning consistently. He  just checks out at perfect times right now and hits a lot of 100+ checkouts. I think if we were not in Cardiff then he definitely beats Price right now but at 14/1 I still think he is worth a bet tonight.

2pts Clayton to win Night 2 9/1 paddypower
1pt Dobey to win Night 2 14/1 paddypower
----------------------------------------------------
1pt 4-fold for the night - Clayton (+1.5 handicap),  Wright, Dobey & MVG 9/1 bet365

[Fader]

Just the one that I'll be taking tonight and it's a boosted treble with PP

MVG has done very little wrong so far in the PL, losing with a 110 average against Price last week. He has had 5 matches so far and has hit 100+ averages in 3 of those. The other 2 being high 90 averages. I think he beats Aspinall tonight. Smith takes on Price. Price will go back to being booed this week and I reckon we may see a lower grade of performance and then Wright takes on Van Den Bergh. Wrights doubling has been painful this PL, so far, and Van Den Bergh has been playing well but we're in Scotland and Wright will have the backing and Wright always likes to beat his mate, Dimi.

2pts MVG, Smith and Wright all to win their matches 4/1 paddypower

[Fader]

I'm so tempted by MVG to win the night, tonight. He is just knocking on the door every week and 15/8 may just be enough for me.

[Fader]

Cheers for that MVG. Gets it back to 5-5 and then throws a bag of spanners.

[Fader]

2pts Van Den Bergh to beat Price and hit most 180s 3/1
2pts Smith, Van Den Bergh, Smith, Clayton and MVG all to win 8/1 skybet
1pt Van Den Bergh to win night 11/1 paddypower

[Fader]

3 darts at double top to go 4-3 up Dimi. Back to 4-4 then broke again. Couldn't hold his pint let alone a leg. Only wins when I lay him.

[Fader]

I won't put too many bets down for the Premier League this week as I am much more interested in the UK Open but 1 for me and it's Price to beat MVG. Price was unlucky at the Baltic. He beat Usher with a 109 average and then went out to Chizzy scoring a 108 average. He's looking to go back into doing abit of Rugby but even when he went to the Rugby club apparently he was 1 dart from a 9-darter. He is playing well again and I reckon he beats MVG, who flattered to deceive again, losing to Bunting.

I think although I' not really interested in a single bet on him, Aspinall is worth a bet in a 4-fold purely because of Smiths injury issue at The Baltic. He didn't play badly against DVD to be fair but I don't think he is at 100% at the moment and he lost against Aspinall last time out. Worth half a point in a 4-fold. I think Clayton looks a good pick against Wright based on last week, also. 

2.5pts Price to beat MVG 11/10 paddypower
1pt treble - Price/Van Den Bergh/Clayton 6/1 bet365
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0.5pt 4-fold Price/Aspinall/Van Den Bergh/Clayton 18/1 bet365

[Fader]

I haven't been too excited about the PL recently. Hence, the lack of bets on it. It doesn't seem like the best of value from a betting perspective. I'll have one for tonight though and that's Aspinall to beat Dobey. I'll give a 4-fold accy a try, too. 

5pts Aspinall to beat Dobey 4/5 bet365
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2pt 4-fold - Smith, Aspinall, MVG and Price 5/1 paddypower
2pts Van Gerwen and Price both to hit 2+ 180s and each to hit a 100+ checkout in QF match 5/1 skybet

[harry_rag]

Not sure if it appeals but Hills have doubled Smith & van Gerwen both to win their QFs and hit a 100+ checkout from 3/1 to 6/1.

[Fader]

that's a nice price.

19 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Not sure if it appeals but Hills have doubled Smith & van Gerwen both to win their QFs and hit a 100+ checkout from 3/1 to 6/1.

 

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Fader said:

that's a nice price.

Cheers. I've had the tenner allowed. It's never guaranteed but, a lot of the time the double odds offer is enough to edge a bet into being reasonable value.

[Fader]

main bet wins. Ofcourse MVG isn't going to perform when I back him. I hate backing him. He was under 80 average for periods of that performance. Next week he'll be back to 100+ averages when i leave him alone lol

Money back for anybody following the accy with PP as only 1 lost

[Fader]

Let's take a look at tonights Premier League Darts. Here is the nightly comp draw :

Wright/Clayton vs Van Den Bergh/Dobey
Smith/Aspinall vs MVG/Price

Table currently (top 5)
Price (33pts)
MVG (29pts)
Smith (23pts)
Aspinall (22pts)
---------------------------------------
Clayton (19pts)

It's a good chance tonight for Clayton to make the final and get above Aspinall (assuming Aspinall loses to Michael Smith) I think in reality only Clayton looks to have a chance to get that 4th spot because after this week there is only 2 weeks left of matches and the other few are in such poor form with low points.

I'll have a punt at Clayton winning the night.

2pts Clayton to win night 14 15/2 bet365

[andypandy23]

I am seeing Clayton to win at odds of 1.67? What am I missing @Fader?

 

[Fader]

4 hours ago, andypandy23 said:

I am seeing Clayton to win at odds of 1.67? What am I missing @Fader?

 

Hi Andy, for future reference it was to win the night. I.e, win the QF, SF and Final of the nights action.

[ThunderDan9]

Unfortunately, Smith played in world champion mode once again... a 110 average in the Final, twice starting the leg with two 180's etc... at least, Clayton gaining some ground in the battle vs. Aspinall for that fourth spot.

[Fader]

11 hours ago, ThunderDan9 said:

Unfortunately, Smith played in world champion mode once again... a 110 average in the Final, twice starting the leg with two 180's etc... at least, Clayton gaining some ground in the battle vs. Aspinall for that fourth spot.

Yeah, I can't complain about that really. Clayton took a 2-1 lead and then Smith hit 10 darter, 11 darter and 12 darts and was at 120 average at one point.

As you say, Clayton now 4th and has it in his own hands and shows he can hold his own if he makes it.

[Fader]

The last week of the Premier League until the Finals. The only match that matters in terms of qualification, is Clayton vs Aspinall. For me, I have Clayton outright so he needs to either a) win against Aspinall or b) Hope that Aspinall doesn't make the final.

If Aspinall beats Clayton and then loses to Price/Wright, then Clayton still gets through. With that in mind, I think I'll go e/w on Aspinall winning tonight as a saver at 12/1. To be fair, Aspinall is playing well but that bottle against Chisnall last week makes me think he may bottle it against Clayton. If he beat Clayton and Price then he'd be going into the final (free) and he'd open up completely so 12/1 seems decent enough. 

Match bets 
2pts Price to beat Wright and hit most 180s 6/4 paddypower
3pts Aspinall to hit most 180s (Vs Clayton) 5/6 paddypower
2pts M.Smith to  beat Van Den Bergh and hit most 180s 5/4 paddypower
0.5pts 4-fold (above 3 bets plus Dobey to have most 180s - 20/1 paddypower )

1pt e/w Aspinall to win the night 12/1 paddypower
 

[Fader]

Wrights last 3 darts he hits 180 to draw. About right.

[Fader]

On 2/1/2023 at 12:10 PM, Fader said:

I'm going to take Clayton as a bet for the Premier League. I'm not entirely convinced he should even have been picked but I know that he is determined to show his worth because he was saying so prior to it, at The Masters. If we look back last year at this event, when it was "mini-tournaments" each week, Claytons average was 97.86. He Lost to Cullen in the semi-final, who then went on to miss winning the PL by 1mm. I think at 10/1 he is worth a bet. Not forgetting he also won the Premier League the year prior, in 2021. As a debut. Infact, he is the only player other than MVG to win this, in this field of 8.

2pts e/w J.Clayton to win Premier League 10/1 betvictor

 

It's Finals night.

Just 4 remain with pre-tournament pick Clayton taking on Price. Michael Smith taking on MVG and then we'll see the final of the 2023 Premier League.

I'm effectively on Clayton to beat Price at 5/1 here so I will leave that match alone but I will take Smith to beat MVG and hit the most 180s in the match, also. MVG had injury concerns last week and withdrew to allow Van Den Bergh to go on and win the night. He then didn't look too great in the Players Championship events. Meanwhile, Clayton won one of those events, which bodes well for pre-tournament backers.

I feel like Smith wins this evetn as of right now but hopefully Clayton can atleast make another Premier League final.

2pts Smith to beat MVG and hit most 180s 7/4 Bet365