NFL - Week 18

[MinellaWorksop]

Final week of the regular season before the road to the Super Bowl starts.

Going for a moneyline match double on tonight's games. Hardly reinventing the wheel here as I am going for both of the favourites.

Kansas City Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars

Double 1.65 Bet365

[tschurchy]

@MinellaWorksop Solid choices - I'd be fuming if that didn't come in ?.

There's a 3/1 double that I really like this week.

Patriots @ Bills (O43.5)
Cardinals @ 49ers (O39.5)

Over recent weeks I've been using a system - with moderate success - to find under-priced totals by looking at three variables:

Points-per-game (season)
Average-points-per-game (home/away)
Points-per-game (Last 3 games)

As a Bills fan, I fully expect the AFC East matchup to go Buffalo's way. But, if you look at the scoring figures the Bills average 28 points-per-game rising to 31 points-per-game at home, meanwhile the Pats average 21 points-per-game rising to 23 points-per-game on the road. 

If you also look at both teams form in their last 3 games, the Bills have average 29 points-per-game and the Pats have average 21 which indicates consistent scoring from both teams and suggest the total is well under-priced at 43 points.

Moving onto the Cardinals at 49ers game and you see a similar pattern. The 49ers average 25 points-per-game rising slightly to 26 points at home whereas the Cardinals average 20 points-per-game and the same amount when they're on the road. 

If you look at their recent form, then the 49ers' points-per-game rises to 31 while the Cards dips a bit to 16. However, it's still enough to suggest the two teams can beat the total line at 39.5 points.

Double 3.64 Bet365

ps. I'd be interested if anyone has feedback on this approach. I doubt it'll work in the post-season though.

3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Final week of the regular season before the road to the Super Bowl starts.

Going for a moneyline match double on tonight's games. Hardly reinventing the wheel here as I am going for both of the favourites.

Kansas City Chiefs

Jacksonville Jaguars

Double 1.65 Bet365