MinellaWorksop Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Final week of the regular season before the road to the Super Bowl starts. Going for a moneyline match double on tonight's games. Hardly reinventing the wheel here as I am going for both of the favourites. Kansas City Chiefs Jacksonville Jaguars Double 1.65 Bet365 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tschurchy Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 @MinellaWorksop Solid choices - I'd be fuming if that didn't come in ?. There's a 3/1 double that I really like this week. Patriots @ Bills (O43.5)Cardinals @ 49ers (O39.5) Over recent weeks I've been using a system - with moderate success - to find under-priced totals by looking at three variables: Points-per-game (season) Average-points-per-game (home/away) Points-per-game (Last 3 games) As a Bills fan, I fully expect the AFC East matchup to go Buffalo's way. But, if you look at the scoring figures the Bills average 28 points-per-game rising to 31 points-per-game at home, meanwhile the Pats average 21 points-per-game rising to 23 points-per-game on the road. If you also look at both teams form in their last 3 games, the Bills have average 29 points-per-game and the Pats have average 21 which indicates consistent scoring from both teams and suggest the total is well under-priced at 43 points. Moving onto the Cardinals at 49ers game and you see a similar pattern. The 49ers average 25 points-per-game rising slightly to 26 points at home whereas the Cardinals average 20 points-per-game and the same amount when they're on the road. If you look at their recent form, then the 49ers' points-per-game rises to 31 while the Cards dips a bit to 16. However, it's still enough to suggest the two teams can beat the total line at 39.5 points. Double 3.64 Bet365 ps. I'd be interested if anyone has feedback on this approach. I doubt it'll work in the post-season though. 3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said: Final week of the regular season before the road to the Super Bowl starts. Going for a moneyline match double on tonight's games. Hardly reinventing the wheel here as I am going for both of the favourites. Kansas City Chiefs Jacksonville Jaguars Double 1.65 Bet365 harry_rag and MinellaWorksop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 Looked at the first couple of games and not much leaping out player wise. Think I'll be on Waller (LV) at 10/3 or better if I can get it. Don't usually play in that price range but he looks ok for a small bet. Burks (Ten) caught my eye at 4/1+ but I see he's doubtful so might give that a miss but will check his status later. 13 minutes ago, tschurchy said: s. I'd be interested if anyone has feedback on this approach. I doubt it'll work in the post-season though. As you say, probably one to come back to next season after this week (though of course you might want to wait until a few games are played to start using it again) Gut feel is it's too simple to yield much success but that's only an instant reaction based on experience (most of it on sports other than NFL). If I was getting an expected points total that's 10 points higher than what the market is saying then I'd assume I was wrong but that's not to say the truth isn't somewhere in the middle. One thing I would say is that you don't seem to be taking any account of how many points each team usually concede. I think you need to fold their defensive records into the mix as well as offensive. If both teams are strong defensively and are coming off the back of 3 games against poorer teams then your figures might "put you away" as it were. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Will look at a few bets via 888. Missed out on a bet builder by etienne not scoring, did have Kirk. Mb offer anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 My go for this week. Dolphins hope ain't jinxing them Bengals -4.5 Packers Cowboys -3.5 MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 8, 2023 Author Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) Best of luck @fd1972uk as well as the above are you opposing the heavily odds on teams at the spread which you mentioned last week. I have it down as opposing The 49ers and Eagles respectively. Could be risky but good luck if you have a go at that strategy as well mate. Two home teams I like on the money line for today are: New Orleans Saints 1.55 Seattle Seahawks 1.38 Prices Bet365 Edited January 8, 2023 by MinellaWorksop spelling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Haha, no, decided just to leave them, chickened out in end. Also did a acc on anytime td Sanders Jefferson Hill Mccaffrey Just over 13s MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Ah well, another bombing today. Probably shouldn't have bet a bet builder on a game I've also bet as acca, Washington easing away from Dallas here, see a big defeat, ahh well. Had also tried mb on Elliott and dallas win. Also used a free bet on lamb and dallas. Glad the season is done, found accas impossible to come off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinellaWorksop Posted January 9, 2023 Author Share Posted January 9, 2023 12 hours ago, fd1972uk said: Ah well, another bombing today. Probably shouldn't have bet a bet builder on a game I've also bet as acca, Washington easing away from Dallas here, see a big defeat, ahh well. Had also tried mb on Elliott and dallas win. Also used a free bet on lamb and dallas. Glad the season is done, found accas impossible to come off. Yeah, did not see The Commanders beating The Cowboys like that. New Orleans Saints disappointing only scoring 7 pts at home to the Panthers. In a tight game two missed field goal attempts were key. Seahawks scrape the overtime victory. Well done to @tschurchy in successfully landing the overs double. Season stats after the final round of games are: Money line matches StrikeRate: 17/26 P/L: +4.41pts fd1972uk, harry_rag and tschurchy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fd1972uk Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 The Commanders should have beat them by about 40 points, lol. Even the commentary team said they felt it was like 100-0 and couldn't believe they had only scored 2 tds at that point. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 On 1/7/2023 at 4:39 PM, harry_rag said: Looked at the first couple of games and not much leaping out player wise. Think I'll be on Waller (LV) at 10/3 or better if I can get it. Don't usually play in that price range but he looks ok for a small bet. My only bet this week so 0-1. Wanted to back Williams at odds against in the last game but didn't get matched. Was showing as 21/20 with 365 but had been trimmed to evens before I could get on (and wouldn't have been allowed much anyway). That would have been a winner but, having just loaded prices into my spreadsheet, Akers and Elliott might've tempted me in but both lost. MinellaWorksop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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