Racing Chat - Friday 16th September

[Darran]

Some of you will be aware I have shares in a horse in Australia called Beneficio and she us back in action at Ballarat on Friday morning in Race 5 at 6.30am. She is actually up against an ex Godolphin horse who finished 2nd to Baaeed. I have looked at the 9 runners who line up in the Class 1 (for horses who have won 1 race) event.

Komachi - An ex-Godolphin horse who had 4 starts for Charlie Appleby in 2020 and 2021 and he won on his 2^nd start at Newcastle in October 2020. That means we know he handles a synthetic track (as they call the AW in Australia) and he's bred too as well. He was then off until last June when he finished 2^nd at Newmarket to a certain horse called Baaeed! Now he was beaten 7.5L so it wasn't like he got close to him which clearly isn't a shock, but as the analysis on the Racing Post says, he isn't always going to bump into one that smart! His last run was also at Newmarket but he was a well beaten 3^rd of 4 and after that he was gelded. In November he was sold for £42k to his current owner and shipped to Australia. The win came over 1400m although he made his Australian debut on the turf course here over 1100m in May in a BM70. That day he was tapped for toe early having been slow away. In the straight he wasn't able to get a run and his jockey had to move him out to the outside to find a gap which didn't come until late on. After that he's flown home to be beaten 0.6L and you have to think with a clear run he wins. He's other two runs this year weren't quite as good and he was quite keen on both, especially last time at Bendigo where he got tired and was only 8^th on a Heavy 8 track. He's not been seen for 77 days, but if he can run like he did in England and as he did in May then he is a big player here back on a synthetic track.

 

 

Ceejay - Ran on well at Pakenham last time over 1000m after jumping awkwardly. Stepping up in trip will suit, but the problem is that was only a BM58 and this is stronger.

 

Missed The Mark - Looks unders in the betting for me and I think that's based on the fact he hammered his rivals in a trail in July. For a start that was clearly a few weeks ago now, but the horse in 2^nd is an exposed maiden so I don't think it says a huge amount. He took 5 runs to win although did it well back in February. He only beat in his first handicap start at Geelong next time, but he was forced out wide and over raced so he can be forgiven a bit for that, but he doesn't look as good as some of these.

 

Beneficio - On the face of it the 7^th at Sandown last time was disappointing as she was well fancied to go very close. However the track was against her as you didn't want to be on the inside as everything came down the middle of the track. She also wasn't as fast away as she can be and although she helped make the running, I don't think that helped. She was found to have a hamstring injury after the race so if she picked that up at some point in the race then that wouldn't have helped either. The maiden win at Kyneton was impressive and then she was a superb 2^nd in an open handicap at Caulfield and the winner has won a Listed race since and placed at Group level. That for me is the best Australian form going into the race. She has had a couple of jumpouts to work her way back up to fitness and did well last time. They were both on a synthetic track so that shouldn't be an issue and she comes here in good form.

 

Pentegra - Took a while to win his maiden and finally did it at Echuca back in March. Was 3^rd in one of these on the turf track on his next start, but struggled in his next two starts. Had a spell and was 2^nd 1^st up, but that came in a 0-58 at Warracknabeal and this is stronger.

 

Teguila Spirit - All but one of her races has come at this venue although over 1000m or 1200m. Finished 2^nd a couple of times in June and July before getting a deserved win in August. The problem is she went into handicap company on her next start and was only 5^th in a BM58. This is stronger than that and she could be doing well to keep tabs on Beneficio in the early stages.

 

Red Stiletto - She's looking exposed compared to most of these and although has been placed 3 times she has been struggling to add to the one win and I'd be surprised if that turned into 2 here.

 

Royal Rebellion - Ex Queensland horse who made her debut in Victoria at Casterton last time in a 0-58 12 days ago when finishing 5th. Bit surprised if she was good enough.

 

Arachnattack - 1 win in 53 starts sums his ability up and going to struggle in this.

 

Verdict - Beneficio is the right favourite for me as the Caulfield 2^nd is better than any of these have managed in Australia. Hopefully she is fast away from her low draw and is able to make all. The only slight query is the fitness in the final 50, but on ability it is hard to see most of these being capable of running her down. Komachi has to be the main danger. He showed good ability over here and clearly whilst finishing 2^nd to Baaeed is a bit misleading as he was over 7L behind, it was still a strong effort in the context of this race. He was unlucky not to win 1^st up in Australia and he can be forgiven a bit for his next two starts. Back onto a synthetic track is likely to help as well. He looks like being the one who will be chasing Beneficio down and I will be backing him as well as having a reverse forecast with the pair as well.

 

Beneficio @ 19/10 with Bet365

Komachi @ 9/2 with everyone

[black rabbit]

good luck with "Beneficio"  Darran  may she run well and come back safe and sound ✌️