Non-League Predictions > 3rd September

[Darran]

Selections that are still value for today.

 

Aldershot v Barnet

It has been 1 win and 5 defeats for Aldershot so far this season. In every game they have been outplayed as well even in the 2-1 victory over Boreham Wood where their xG was 0.78 and Boreham Wood's was 1.83 and it was 7 shots to 18 and Boreham Wood had 58% of the ball. That emphasises that Aldershot were very much 2nd best despite winning. They only just survived relegation last season and everything points to a relegation battle again this season given how they have started it. Their average xG against is 2.06 and they are averaging conceding 2 goals a game as well. I have opposed Barnet twice recently and both times they have won so hopefully now I am with them they can also win. I have to say that having watched them in the live game on Monday night against Eastleigh that I think I may have got them wrong. I was surprised manager Dean Brennan said they hadn't played very well because I thought they were always in control of the game and again they were very clinical in front of goal when their chances came their way. Again, they were beaten when it comes to xG with it being 1.04 v 1.65 and Barnet's average xG for the season is just 0.93 despite them averaging 2 goals a game. I still can't see how they can keep that up, but I do think they are on the verge of being a side who could reach the play-offs. What I am certain off though is that Barnet are a much better side than Aldershot and although Barnet have only managed more than 9 shots once this season (in the opening game against Halifax) this does strike me as a game they will get plenty of opportunities. I am really keen on an away win here.

 

Maidenhead v Halifax

I do wonder if now Halifax have won if they might kick on and this isn't the worse game in the world to make it back-to-back victories, but I am going to back the home side to carry on their good form at home. They have lost every game away from home, but have won 2 of 3 at home and in the game they lost against York they had an xG of 1.34 compared to York's 0.35. York scored with their only shot on target with them only having 4 shots. Maidenhead can sometimes struggle against the lesser sides in the division, but I just can't make them as big a price as they are against a Halifax who have really struggled on the whole. I would make the home side favourites so have to back them.

Cheshunt v Farnborough

I think Farnborough are a decent bet here as they are way overpriced. I think they have a better side than Cheshunt and they have been a bit unlucky to have had a tough run of fixtures. It's no real shock they have lost their last 3 fixtures as they have had to go to Ebbsfleet, host Bath and then go to Havant. They lost 4-2 to Ebbsfleet, but the other two were just 1-0 defeats and I think they have held their own in those tough games. They now travel to a Cheshunt side who have won 1 and lost 5 so far. Granted they have been a little unlucky along the way and they did have their keeper sent off when I put them up the other week to beat St Albans. They were stuffed 5-0 by Braintree on Monday although that doesn't tell the full story as their xG was 2.17 which has only 0.07 behind Braintree's and 1 of their goals was a penalty. They did have some good chances to score, but what it highlighted to me was they are lacking quality up front. I thought Farnborough were capable of a decent mid-table finish and Cheshunt would find things very tough so at the prices Farnborough do look a fantastic bet.

Barnet 4pts @ 13/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 4/5)

Maidenhead 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 11/8)

Farnborough 2pts @ 23/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 7/4)