Racing Chat - Saturday 30th July

[The Brigadier]

On 7/29/2022 at 8:24 AM, The Brigadier said:

Goodwood 1.05

The days ITV races kick off with a nine runner 7F maiden for two year old’s. People have been moaning this week that we should be seeing the more competitive handicap races on terrestrial television but personally I think it’s quite refreshing that they show the occasional maiden as they are the future. Richard Hannon’s Classic ran a race full of promise on his debut when 4th of 14 in a Newbury novice stakes having been tardy at the start and not knocked about towards the finish. The Foxes represents the Andrew Balding/King Power connections and this expensive yearling was thrown into the deep end on his second start when 9th in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. He can chase Classic home who is a strong fancy to step forward for his promising debut under Pat Dobbs for Richard Hannon.

 

CLASSIC 3 points win @ 6/4 bet365

 

Goodwood 1.40

A disappointing turnout of only a dozen go to post for this 6F Stewards Cup consolation handicap. Saying that there is a stand out bet here in favourite Lethal Levi who is officially 9lb well in following two victories in decent three year old 6F handicaps at Newmarket earlier this month. Karl Burke’s gelding will be ridden , as he was last time, by 3lb claimer Pierre-Louis Jamin and will be hard to beat. The majority of his opposition are fully exposed with some respect given to 2020 winner Treacherous who’s two from four at the track and a big price here. It’s all about Lethal Levi though for me.

 

LETHAL LEVI 4 points win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Newmarket 1.55

A 6F nursery now with just eight runners. Likely favourite is the Ralph Beckett trained Fox Degree who won at Ffos Las on his nursery debut 19 days ago by a comfortable two lengths and with the form already boosted by the third winning since looks sure to run well stepping back up to 6f with Frankie Dettori in the saddle. He’s been well found in the market however and I’ll play the Tom Dascombe trained handicap debutant Queen Of Uplands in the hope that all eight run. Dascombe had his first winner from his new base at Lambourn last week and in this Kessaar filly he may have a well handicapped sort. She improved for front running tactics last time at Newbury when running the progressive Candle Of Hope to two and a quarter lengths at levels. That horse has won again since easily and is now officially rated 89. A mark of 73 may underestimate Dascombe’s filly and she’s the each way bet.

 

QUEEN OF UPLANDS 1 point each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Goodwood 2.10

Fourteen assemble for the 1m 6F Summer handicap for three year olds and older. It has an open look about it with Charlie and Mark Johnstone’s Soapy Stevens chasing a hat trick of victories following wins at Chester and Newmarket. He’s up 3lb for his latest win and should be competitive . If you like him though you must give Ralph Beckett’s Sam Cooke a chance as he was only 3/4L behind him at Newmarket last time and is 2lb better off today. Andrew Balding’s Melrose winner Valley Forge is another with claims and should be thereabouts with the Ebor his main Autumn target. I’m backing the George Baker trained Cemhaan though. A Salisbury and Newmarket winner in the spring he wasn’t disgraced when finishing 7th of 18 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot won by Candleford. He didn’t get the clearest of runs close home that day and his effort can be marked up. An extra two furlongs here will suit and he has the services of Hollie Doyle today who’s one from one on the five year old gelding.

 

CEMHAAN 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 2.25

Seven three year old and older fillies and mares assemble here for the listed Chalice Stakes run over 1m 4F. A good favourite is the Charlie and Mark Johnstone trained Rose Of Kildare who will be very hard to beat on her best form. That includes a 3/4L second to the improving Godolphin three year old Eternal Pearl over course and distance a fortnight ago. If she was in this race she would be an odds on chance and the 7/4 around about the selection looks value to my eyes. The closest on official ratings to Rose Of Kildare is Freddie and Martyn Meade’s Technique but she was 8 1/2L behind the selection a fortnight ago and unless the first time blinkers improve her she’s held. The three three year olds all have a bit to find on what they have so far achieved although Ralph Beckett’s Star Fortess is still improving and can chase the selection home who is a strong fancy.

 

ROSE OF KILDARE 3 points win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

 

Goodwood 2.45

Next up is the group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes for 3yo+ fillies and mares. Eight go to post and the market is headed by William Haggas’ Sea La Rosa who is the top rated on official ratings. Tom Marquand’s mount beat the re-opposing Viola a length and a quarter at Haydock on her re-appearance and followed that up when runner up to the smart Free Wind on soft ground at the same track. She’s the one to beat here but with hopefully all eight going to post and at the prices I’m happy to take her on with something each way. Emily Dickinson is second in but she hardly excites me at the current odds of 5/2 for team O’Brien and Moore. Yesyes was interesting but she has an absence to overcome and maybe more pertinent is the fact she needs softer ground. Maybe Hughie Morrison can take it with his seven year old Urban Artist who is only rated 6lb inferior to the favourite and has form figures here of 12. She was actually runner up on this day last year over course and distance in the Summer Handicap to Prince Alex. She has an excuse for her latest run as that was the best part of a mile further than she’s raced before on the flat and to small stakes she’s the each way selection.

 

URBAN ARTIST 1 point each way @ 10/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Goodwood 3.20

The feature handicap of the day and week is the Stewards’ Cup Handicap run over 6F. As always it has a very open look about it and looking back over the years and this week the draw may not play as much of an advantage as one would think although Inwould prefer to be very high or very low ideally. I have a short list of six, five of which are around the front of the market and an outsider. Great Ambassador ran well in this race last year when third on ground that didn’t suit and back on fast ground and following a fair effort last time in a group 3 at Newbury should be competitive for Ed Walker and Saffie Osborne who gets the leg over on him for the first time. This is Mr Wagyu’s time of the year and he comes here having won a competitive handicap at The Curragh a fortnight ago. He won the consolation race for this last year on soft ground but appears to go on anything. Ed Walker not only has Great Ambassador with claims but his Popmaster ran a stormer last time in the Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot when runner up to the smart Rohaan (Mr Wagyu 1 1/2L back in 4th and now 2lb worse off). Summerghand won this race a couple of years ago and is falling down the handicap but has shown signs recently that he’s ready to win again. He was 3 3/4L behind Popmaster at Ascot and is 4lb better off here. Ryan Moore has been booked for Edward Bethell’s Regional who could be well berthed in stall 27 with plenty of pace around him. He ran on well at Doncaster over 5F last time and will appreciate todays furlong longer contest. All five of those should be competitive with Popmaster just favoured from stall 3 under Tom Marquand. My best outsider is the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Method who runs in a handicap for the first time. He finished last of 13 at Newbury last time (3 1/4L behind Great Ambassador and 6lb better off) but is better than that and can also make his presence pay. A tough race but it’s Popmaster each way for me from stall 3 with a saver on Regional on the other side in stall 27.

 

POPMASTER 1 point each way @ 12/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234567

REGIONAL 1 point each way @ 16/1 Coral/Ladbrokes 1/5th 123456

 

Goodwood 3.55

The weeks feast of terrestrial television concludes with a 7F class 2 three year old’s only handicap. The key piece of form is the Haydock handicap won by Richard Hughes’ Zero Carbon from the William Haggas trained Spirit Of Nguru. There was only a head between them at the line and there shouldn’t be much between them today. That run though came on soft ground and I’ll take the pair of them on here with combined odds of around 15/8. The horse I like is the George Boughey trained Koy Koy who ran a remarkable race on his first start for Newmarket based Boughey (previously with Andrew Balding)when despite getting loose and running around for some time settled down in the race and won by a short head in a mile handicap at Newmarket. The handicapper only put him up a couple of pounds and with Ryan Moore booked he looks a worthy selection today for Boughey who’s runners this week at Goodwood have all run well including Oscula who won.

 

KOY KOY 2 points each way 8/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 123

 

 

A disappointing day to finish the week off. Three places only for a daily loss of 15.70 points.  A profit however on the week of 16.36 points.  Hope everyone's backed a  winner or two today.

[Ironjoe]

Doncaster 5.10 back from dubai 11/4 2pt win

[black rabbit]

5 hours ago, black rabbit said:

Trawlerman 2 10 gwd   1/4 pt win  15/2  

Tabdeed   3 20 gwd    1/4 pt win  18/1  

Bolthole  4 30 gwd   1/4 pt win  8/1  

Woven   4 55 Tsk    1/5 pt  20/1

good birthday  4 30 Gwd    1/5 pt win  28/1

 

 

 

 

P/L  + 140.50 pts 

Trawlerman   " delivers catch" and tabdeed  ran fine race also  

ive had 1/5 pt on San Andreas  in the 4 10 gwy   tomorrow

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

That’s my gripe with some handicaps. As you say not running their race in previous races is a kick in the teeth for punters, but it also effects the punter on todays race, unless you backed him of course which effects you in a positive way. I like handicaps but you just never know what tricks done trainers are up to. That’s the nature of the beast I suppose. 

Agreed another observation of the stewards cup is even simpler, they were all banging on about high or low draw and saying stay away from the middle as evidenced all week. So heres the question why did all those jockeys drawn low ignore the rail and race up towards the middle? I have always said one of the only things you cant factor into a race is thick jockey group think lemming like stupidity.

[roger2256]

8 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Summer jump racing should be banned , way too much racing already !

Scroll past it if you don't like it , these comments really piss me off.  Your not obliged to bet in every race so what difference does it make to you 

[Villa Chris]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Agreed another observation of the stewards cup is even simpler, they were all banging on about high or low draw and saying stay away from the middle as evidenced all week. So heres the question why did all those jockeys drawn low ignore the rail and race up towards the middle? I have always said one of the only things you cant factor into a race is thick jockey group think lemming like stupidity.

Frustrating to say the least. 

[fd1972uk]

9 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Scroll past it if you don't like it , these comments really piss me off.  Your not obliged to bet in every race so what difference does it make to you 

Tbh I think there's some truth in it, not from a betting point though , not sure if that was what he was meaning though.

Think it's more dangerous with weather and sure there was a trainer on not so long ago saying that it was getting a bit mad also having small fields which didn't make sense.

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Scroll past it if you don't like it , these comments really piss me off.  Your not obliged to bet in every race so what difference does it make to you 

I must admit I preferred it when there was a proper summer break. I'm sure it made betting easier knowing in the first few weeks of the season that all the horses had had a break.