Juvenile Hurdlers 2022/23

[Bachelors Hall]

Hello all... Haven't had time to do a proper opening post with stats, explanations and so forth. Will be nice to do one before long but for now, I am just going to jump in with the first preview essay of the season. Enjoy 

Hexham - 4th June - Preview
At the beginning of this century, the season’s opening juvenile hurdle took place at Market Rasen during mid-late July. In 2004, Stratford supplanted Market Rasen by a week before the latter reclaimed its position in 2006 by hosting the first juvenile hurdle to be held in June since summer jumping became a whole thing. Not to be outdone, Stratford raised the curtain on the tenth of June in 2007 before Hexham stepped in to give those competing in the 2008 Epsom Derby an insight into what awaited them if they did not fancy retiring to the breeding sheds. The following year, Stratford hosted the first three-year-old hurdle to be held in May. Everybody agreed that this was silly and apart from Ffos Las going four days ahead of Hexham in 2012, and Newton Abbot getting things underway during “the uncertain times”, British juvenile hurdlers have been making their first forays at the country’s most beautiful racecourse.

Titled “Most Important 3-Year-Old Race Today”, Saturday’s juvenile hurdle at Hexham is certainly the most anticipated three-year-old contest of the Summer; in this quarter at least. This season will see the interesting initiative of “Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races”, in a bid to catch up with the French (although the French do allow those with flat form to contest three-year-old hurdles). As such, it is fitting to compare the Hexham contest with the equivalent Prix d'Essai des Poulains held at Compiegne in March. The former has been a launchpad for the likes of Roi Mage, Buddy Banks, Quilixios, Sceau Royal and Grandouet; the latter three contesting the Triumph Hurdle with Quilixios winning in 2021, and Grandouet placing in 2011. However, in terms of participants, Hexham’s less heralded curtain-raiser can claim four during the same period; albeit with Simarian’s seventh in 2009 being the best placing – Lindenhurst and (last year’s winner) Koi Dodville finishing ninth and eleventh respectively, and Rupestrian pulling up in 2010.

Amusing quirks aside, Hexham’s race historically takes little winning with the first-past-the-post achieving a seasonal best RPR of 103 median, 105.46 mean, while those winners with flat ratings brought an average BHA mark of just 58.08. Notwithstanding, the contest is not without its occasional useful participants as alongside the aforementioned Triumph horses, City Dreamer, Come On Sunshine and Maria Magdalena also went on to reach the frame in the Wensleydale Hurdle. This year’s renewal has the potential to be quite handy as for all that their profiles are akin to the curate’s egg, several represent strong yards in the division while some pedigrees and flat ratings are above average for the time of year. As far as the track itself is concerned, Hexham, with its left-handed, galloping and very undulating circuit, is probably the most demanding in Britain and Ireland for juvenile hurdlers. Their average winning DIs of 1.135 mean and 0.92 median are lower only at Cheltenham and Chepstow with the gap between winners and beaten horses being the most pronounced in the country. Time of year is immaterial to these figures, reading at 1.16 and 0.90 for this particular contest. While not providing a particularly difficult jumping test, its clear round rate of 97.4% being ninth highest in the UK, only Southwell has a lower completion rate than Hexham’s 77.27%. Consequently, stamina is a crucial attribute for the young horses going into battle on Saturday. A couple of these have made the running during the course of their short careers and as a few have also shown a propensity to become lit up, the pace should be an honest one. The going currently reads as good to soft and while watering was planned earlier this week, that would no longer be the case.

Bukela bg Brian Ellison f5-0-0 (54) 63
Mondialiste (Val Royal){1-x}(0.92) 2/2 Bentons Lad 102 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (97), Southwell 2018
Since this race’s inception, Brian Ellison has had two winners from five in this contest; with Dilizan landing the 2012 edition, and Come On Sunshine scoring two years later. Each of these were trained by Ellison on the flat, which is also partially true of this year’s representative, Bukela. Initially under the care of Stef Keniry, whose graduates to the division consist of two winners from three, Bukela was beaten no less than fifteen lengths on each of his three outings last year. Switched to Brian Ellison’s and armed with a basement mark of 55, Bukela showed his first piece of worthwhile form when reappearing in a sixteen-furlong Wetherby Handicap in April. Sent off at 22/1, having drifted from 16/1 to 33/1 in the morning, Bukela was outpaced in the early stages. However, despite showing greenness in the straight, was able to keep on in what was an honestly run contest for a three length fifth of thirteen. The form is taking a fair shape with the winner finishing second at Sandown, and the fourth winning next time out. However, he does emerge some fourteen pounds wrong with the reopposing National Charter who finished in third. Bukela’s second appearance of the season came three weeks ago at Redcar over a furlong shorter where he drifted from a morning 3/1 to 5/1. Never getting involved and finishing an eleven length eighth, his being hampered at the start did light him up although it was still a disappointing effort. Quite locally bred, Bukela is set to become the first of Mondialiste’s offspring to race over hurdles. Standing at a decent 16.1hh, the globetrotting Mondialiste won his first race at four before landing the Woodbine Mile and Arlington Million as well as finishing third in the Prix Jean Prat. Though a son of Galileo, whose winner to runner rate as a grandsire is a decent 27.6%, Mondialiste’s nephew Intello has had one winning juvenile from eight with none improving on their flat form. The damline’s clues to Bukela’s potential hurdling ability are similarly fair at best. Cousin Bentons Lad won three moderate handicap hurdles over intermediate distances, but remaining evidence is sparse until one reaches Lil Rockerfeller at 5/5. Brian Hughes was initially booked for the ride, but while he has other bookings on the card, he has neglected to take this mount. Not that Henry Brooke, who is two from eleven in Hexham juveniles, is not an able deputy.

Exceed All Limits bg Andrew Crook f2-0-0 (-) 56
Excelebration (Tomba){9-c}(11.00) 2/1 Chief Scout 101 2nd 2m Novices' Hurdle, Kelso 2007
Gelded prior to making his racecourse debut at in a twelve furlong April novice stakes at Ripon, Exceed All Limits started at 100/1 and ran accordingly, never leaving the rear to finish a thirteen length fifth of five. Though he beat two of his thirteen rivals home over ten furlongs at Newcastle eleven days ago, he was beaten thirty-seven lengths. Andrew Crook has had three winning juveniles from sixteen, although none scored first time nor were they handled by Crook on the flat. Furthermore, only a third improved for the switch to hurdles which is crucial to Exceed All Limits’ chances. Sire Excelebration has had two winners from twenty in the sphere, but one was out of a Montjeu mare and Tomba has had no success either as a sire or damsire.

Jad Mahal bg Alan King f4-0-1 (68) 72
Dabirsim (Shamardal){4-m}(2.25) 0.5 Selma 119 3rd 3600m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (62.0), Auteuil 2021
The profile of Jad Mahal is very much one of contrasts. Trainer Alan King’s record in the juvenile hurdling division is intimidating at all levels. As well as winning Grade Ones with the likes of Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Franchoek and l’Unique, he also boasts a winner to runner rate of 48.05%, an improvement rate of 50.91%, and of those trained at Barbury Castle during their flat careers, 52.33% would win during their initial campaigns over jumps. Alan King is also adept at readying them first time out as per his 25.76% strike-rate. Conversely, Dabirsim’s record as a stallion of juvenile hurdlers is lamentable. A precocious and speedy racehorse with precocious and speedy offspring, his four juveniles have amassed a mere £350 from seven outings and his sole winning jumper in Britain did so in a two-mile Warwick handicap off 92. Such trepidation about the breeding is somewhat offset by his half-sister being a fairly useful juvenile hurdler in France last term, although her being by Camelot certainly did no harm. Indeed, being a nephew of Threading, out of a niece of Dubai Millennium, Jad Mahal’s greatest chance to shine would have been on the flat. Since fetching £34,000 at the Goresbridge Breeze-Up last June, Jad Mahal’s racing career has also been one of contrast. After finishing midfield on his debut at Leicester last October, given a relatively easy ride having shown greenness, he posted his career best at Wolverhampton the following month in a seven-furlong maiden. Sent off the 18/5 favourite, Jad Mahal tracked the leaders and though ridden turning into the straight, was close enough if good enough. Though he hung under pressure and was unable to find an extra gear, his keeping-on third – just over a length behind a dual subsequent winner and seven lengths ahead of another – would be the strongest on offer in this contest. However, following his winter break, he failed to build on that effort as he was beaten thirteen lengths when dropping away in a ten-furlong Lingfield maiden at the end of March, and finished last of seven on his handicap debut at Goodwood over a mile which may have been too sharp. The equine embodiment of the curate’s egg, Jad Mahal is an interesting recruit based on his powerful and in-form yard, his useful half-sister, and his sole decent flat performance. However, while connections won this contest in 2019 with Green Etoile, his unaccountably poor form at three, subsequent gelding operation and the dubious record of his sire definitely temper enthusiasm.

Moonlight Dawn chg Adrian Paul Keatley f1-0-0 (-) 26
Dawn Approach (Danehill Dancer){13-c}(1.18) 3/1 Cape Express 137 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Represented in last season’s renewal by Space Kid, who finished a well beaten fourth, Adrian Paul Keatley will be hoping for better from the aforementioned’s half-brother, Moonlight Dawn. However, while Space Kid was able to win at two, Moonlight Dawn showed very little promise on his sole outing at Doncaster last October in finishing a twenty-length fourteenth of fifteen. Moreover, while Space Kid’s sire, Tamayuz, is a capable sire in the division, the same cannot be said of Dawn Approach whose fourteen juveniles have collected no wins from thirty-one attempts. The damline offers some respite as the useful Cape Express appears at 3/1 alongside another winner in Leo McGarry, while useful French hurdler Lalezari is out of the fifth dam. However, that would be the sum of Moonlight Dawn’s prospects.

Quickdrawmcgraw bg Evan Williams f5-0-0 (52) 52
Kodi Bear (Barathea){16-c}(0.68) 1/0 Silk Affair 131 1st Fred Winter Juv HcH (G3,125), Cheltenham 2009
Despite having the second lowest official rating in this line-up, Quickdrawmcgraw attracted the highest bid at auction for an experienced participant when going to 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Guineas Sale (to stay in the same yard). His rating is one fully justified by his five performances spanning from last June to mid-January. Out with the washing when beaten by fourteen lengths on his debut over five furlongs at Bath, he was beaten the same distance at Chepstow over seven. Given three months off the track, he stepped up marginally in a couple of outings at Leicester; first in a novice stakes where he weakened to finish just over ten lengths behind the winner in sixth having raced keenly (half a length behind Jad Mahal who was making his debut); and in a nursery off 57 where he led briefly at the distance but ultimately filled the same slot, albeit two lengths closer. Quickdrawmcgraw’s sole outing this side of Christmas came in a ten-furlong Lingfield handicap off 54 in which he never left the rear and was beaten just over eight lengths in seventh; although his final furlong time was the fourth fastest in the field. On form, his price tag is difficult to justify, but there are some clues in his pedigree to suggest he may do better as a juvenile hurdler. Kodi Bear has had only one winner from seven in the sphere, but that was Fred Bear (incidentally, Quickdrawmcgraw’s cousin) who won at Stratford last August before finishing second in middle distance handicaps at Fontwell and Plumpton. The dam, Silk Affair, won the 2009 Fred Winter Hurdle and is herself a half-sister to five other winning jumpers including the useful Arthur’s Gift and Direct Bearing. Other useful performers on the damline include Ecco (2/3), Ski Sunday (4/4) and the likes of Silsol, Saglawy, Salden Licht and Sweet Wake at 4/5. The care of Evan Williams is also a positive as, along with boasting a healthy winner-to-runner rate of 28.45% in the sphere, has a 16.25% first-time strike rate with flat recruits and a 31.25% strike rate in the months of June and July; which includes Simarian who won this race in 2008. Moreover, the two juveniles that Evan Williams trained on the flat – the 69 rated Torba and the 52 rated Nick The Silver - were both winners. Quickdrawmcgraw will need to improve markedly on his flat form, but everything else in his profile suggests that, while not an outstanding candidate in this field, should find his level over hurdles in the coming months.

Free Chakarte bf David Pipe f6-2-1 (32.0) 63
Highland Reel (Pivotal){13-e}(0.82) 2/1 Libeccio 126 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle, Plumpton 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/free-chakarte
David Pipe won this race in 2010 with Lucky Quay, and last year with Koi Dodville; who had been bought out of a French claimer on his previous start. While Koi Dodville cost the same connections €14,506 after finishing second at Saint-Cloud, French Chakarte was slightly pricier at €17,001 following her win at Fontainebleau thirty-eight days ago. The road to Fontainebleau began last June with a staying-on third in a 1400m newcomers race at La Teste de Buch under the care of Simone Brogi. Disappointing on her return to the venue the following month, Free Chakarte was switched to Christophe Ferland’s yard and was next seen at Toulouse in March over 2100m where she finished in midfield; fading having led to the furlong marker. Later that month, a switch to handicapping (off a valeur of 33 (72.6) and more patient tactics back over a mile at La Teste failed to pay off as she got very warm and finished well beaten. Free Chakarte was then dropped to claiming company which saw her finally get off the mark at Royan in a 1600m contest on souple ground worth €8,000. Initially setting the pace, she slotted behind the leaders going into the back before regaining the lead turning for home and fending off a better travelling rival to win by three-quarters of a length. She conceded five-and-a-half kilos to the 29.0 rated runner-up and was nearly nine pounds better than the fifty-six rated third. The form has not been well advertised since, but it would still be worth a rating in the mid-high sixties. Later in April, Free Chakarte completed the double at Fontainebleau in a 2000m claimer worth more than twice the Royan contest. Stalking the leader from the outset, she was asked for her effort at the distance and though her immediate response was to wander under pressure, she straightened out inside the final furlong and had the measure of her rivals to the tune of a decisive length at the finish. She was getting weight from the first three to follow her home, but with them all rated between 30.0 (66) and 34.0 (74.8), another mark in the mid-high sixties would not be wide of the mark. Two of the nine juveniles formerly trained by Christophe Ferland were winners with each also able to score on their first runs in Britain. David Pipe is not shy about buying juveniles from French claimers and five of the twelve sourced in this fashion were winners; giving a winner runner rate of 41.67% which compares favourably to the 20.45% for all other trainers. While three of these would take a few runs to find their mark, the most recent pair – Adagio and Koi Dodville – did score at the first time of asking. Free Chakarte’s sire, Highland Reel, is one of two in this contest having their first forays in National Hunt racing and is also a globetrotting son of Galileo. However, while Mondialiste leaned towards the mile end of middle-distances, Highland Reel won five times over a mile and a half including a King George and a Coronation Cup. Highland Reel is the shorter of the two, measuring at 16.0¼hh, but despite his Antipodean flat heritage, is a 3/3 relative of Starspangledbanner; a sire emerging as rather adept with juvenile hurdlers. While preferring livelier ground as a racehorse, Highland Reel is getting winners on soft. All the same, as a probable source of stamina with good ground ability, Highland Reel has the attributes to enjoy success with summer jumpers. The distaff side of Free Chakarte’s pedigree also has some potential for the sphere as evidenced by uncle Libeccio who finished second in the juvenile handicap at Sandown before winning fairly useful hurdles over middle distances. Though unlikely to set the scene alight, Free Chakarte has less questions to answer than her opponents here and comes into the race with a solid chance.

Intriguing Lady bf Nigel Hawke f12-0-3 (50) 66
Fascinating Rock (Invincible Spirit){9-e}(1.13) 2/1 Arthurian 87 1st 2m½f Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2008
The veteran of twelve outings, Intriguing Lady is the most experienced participant set to face the starter. She was formerly trained by Mark Johnston who, since 2005, has been the most prolific supplier of juvenile hurdles with 211 former inmates of Kingsley House(?) taking up the vocation. For context, Mick Channon is next on the list with just three others reaching triple digits. Of those 211, fifty were winners, giving a healthy rate of 26.47%, although less than a third would improve on what they had shown for Johnston. The latter factor would be a matter of concern for Intriguing Lady whose early promise was fleeting and has been supplanted by disappointment. Her debut came at Ayr last August where, sporting a hood, she finished second of four behind a fair and experienced rival and ahead of a pair that have subsequently achieved little. Running green and down the field on her next two starts, she posted her career best on her handicap debut in a seven-furlong Newcastle nursery in October off 65. She was arguably unlucky when sixth in a Chelmsford claimer on her seventh and final start as a two-year-old, but on her first four starts of 2022, finished last in a handicap, last in a claimer, third in a seller won by a 54 rated animal, then eighth of nine in a Southwell handicap. Intriguing Lady was last seen finishing midfield in a Wolverhampton handicap where, sporting her fourth form of headgear, refused to settle before weakening late on. After this final outing, Intriguing Lady went to the Tattersalls Ascot March Sale where she commanded just £2,000. Such an appraisal is not inherently damning to a young hurdler’s prospects, however, as five of the thirty-four juveniles to have left Mark Johnston’s at public auction for less than £5,000 would be winners; including Rupestrian who won this very contest in 2009 for Tim Vaughan after fetching £4,000 at the DBS Lincoln Sale. Her new handler, Nigel Hawke, has a respectable record in the sphere with a 20% winner to runner rate that increases to 26.47% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success come from those from Jim Bolger’s with seven of the ten such horses winning. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 9.38%. Furthermore, Nigel Hawke’s juveniles invariable improve for experience with his first-time strike rate being a mere 4.69%. Fascinating Rock has one of the better records of the sires represented in this field but is still below average by general standards with his sole winner from seven being the Joseph O’Brien trained Faron, and his clear round rate of 80.95% being low by any measure. Intriguing Lady’s uncle did win a juvenile hurdle, albeit a weak Stratford seller, and apart from minor winner Manjaam at 3/2, jumping prowess on the damline is negligible before reaching Mengli Khan at 4/2. Even if Intriguing Lady has somehow learned to settle better over the past ten weeks, there were already concerns over her stamina and given her likely freshness and trainer’s modus operandi, the challenge posed by Hexham is unlikely to see her to best effect.

National Charter bf Chris Grant f5-0-1 (62) 70
Lawman (Big Shuffle){1-h}(1.40) 0.5 Tiki Fire 90 2nd 2m Fillies' Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Hereford 2022
Like her half-sister Tiki Fire, National Charter commanded a price tag of 140,000 guineas at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale. Also like Tiki Fire, she returned to Tattersalls before embarking on a juvenile hurdling career. While Tiki Fire ran on the flat for Karl Burke, National Charter started off with William Haggas whose seventy-one graduates count twenty-three winning juveniles amongst them. While many ex-Haggas horses were above-average on the flat, those rated seventy and lower still have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 20.75%. National Charter raced just once at two, finishing just over four lengths fourth in a seven-furlong Lingfield novice and shaping as though she would come on for the experience. Nothing went right when tailed off at Newcastle in January, but there was improvement in her next couple of outings when just the wrong side of midfield at Southwell over a mile, and Wolverhampton over a mile and four on her handicap debut in March. Her best effort came last time out, running off 61, over a mile and six at Wetherby where she doubled in price from 6/1 in the morning, before being trimmed into 8/1 in the ring. Held up towards the rear, she made headway along the turn for home and travelling well at the three pole, looked to make a strong challenge after getting the hang of things at the distance. Though she was unable to see out the race as well as the front pair, she held on for third by a neck from a next time out winner while emerging a stone to the good on these terms against the reopposing Bukela. Her sire, Lawman, is the most established of those represented in this line-up while also boasting a solid winner to runner rate of 20.75%. As well as being a half-sister to Tiki Fire, who managed to place in a pair of fillies’ maiden juveniles last term before moving to Germany for £4,800, National Charter is related to several winning jumpers (incidentally of Teutonic stock) in Dollar Star (3/1), Dictum (3/2), Don Cossack (4/3) and Dubai Star (4/4). Local-ish trainer Chris Grant has a fair record in the sphere with his winner-to-runner rate of 18.75% improving to 20% when isolating flat recruits purchased at public auction; including three-time winner Lazy Darren who also fetched 16,000 guineas back in 2007. However, less can be said of his improvement rate of 23.81% and his only first-time winner from thirty-three came courtesy of an ex-French import who won in February 2011 and had upwards of ten pounds over his rivals on flat form. While National Charter is an improving sort with a fairly interesting profile, her trainer’s lack of recent winner and dearth of first-time winners in the sphere are not encouraging.

Strong prospects
1.Free Chakarte
Reasonable prospects
2.Quickdrawmcgraw
3.Jad Mahal
Feasible prospects
4.National Charter
5.Bukela
Moderate prospects
6.Intriguing Lady
Negligible prospects
7.Exceed All Limits
8.Moonlight Dawn

[Bachelors Hall]

Apologies for missing the Aintree race - would have been 1.Free Chakarte 2. Mucuna 3. Fast Style 4. All In Peder so probably for the best I was too tired from work to preview a four runner race. Luckily, I was able to get away a few hours early today so here is the preview for a five runner juvenile 

Market Rasen – 17th June – Preview
The third juvenile hurdle of the season is set to take place at Market Rasen. While the Lincolnshire track has been the first step towards Triumph glory for the likes of Katchit, Countrywide Flame and Tiger Roll, this particular contest has been fairly typical for the course and the time of year. Exceptions include Orsippus (fourth in 2009), Chic Name (fifth in 2015) and the eventually useful King’s Wharf (second in 2012), but the average winners’ seasonal RPR of 106 is moderate. This year’s line-up is par for the course as while there is a winner and a strong travelling penultimate flight faller taking on a couple of flat winners with interesting pedigrees, the two juvenile hurdles to date have been modest and the flat form is not much better. A sharp, largely flat and right-handed track the course’s winning DIs of 1.27 median, 1.68 mean, are amongst the ten highest in the country although the figures are lower for this race and the completion rate of 83.94% is in the lower third. Notwithstanding, with the ground being described as good (watering to maintain) and none of the five participants being frontrunners, stamina demands are unlikely to be exacting.

Bukela bg Brian Ellison f5-0-0 (54) 63 j1-0-0 (-) 75 ?
Mondialiste (Val Royal){1-x}(0.92) 2/2 Bentons Lad 102 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (97), Southwell 2018
From 2009, Brian Ellison saddled eight runners without success in this contest before Whiskey And Water won in 2019. This year’s representative, Bukela was initially under the care of Stef Keniry, for whom he was beaten no less than fifteen lengths on each of his three outings last year. Switched to Brian Ellison’s and armed with a basement mark of 55, Bukela showed his first piece of worthwhile form when reappearing in a sixteen-furlong Wetherby Handicap in April. Sent off at 22/1, having drifted from 16/1 to 33/1 in the morning, Bukela was outpaced in the early stages. However, despite showing greenness in the straight, was able to keep on in what was an honestly run contest for a three length fifth of thirteen. The form is taking a fair shape with the winner finishing second at Sandown, and the fourth winning next time out. Bukela’s second appearance of the season came at Redcar over a furlong shorter where he drifted from a morning 3/1 to 5/1. Never getting involved and finishing an eleven length eighth, his being hampered at the start did light him up although it was still a disappointing effort. Switched to hurdles at Hexham a fortnight ago, Bukela became the first of Mondialiste’s offspring to race over hurdles. Standing at a decent 16.1hh, the globetrotting Mondialiste won his first race at four before landing the Woodbine Mile and Arlington Million as well as finishing third in the Prix Jean Prat. Though a son of Galileo, whose winner to runner rate as a grandsire is a decent 27.74%, Mondialiste’s nephew Intello has had one winning juvenile from eight with none improving on their flat form. The damline’s clues to Bukela’s potential hurdling ability are similarly fair at best. Cousin Bentons Lad won three moderate handicap hurdles over intermediate distances, but remaining evidence is sparse until one reaches Lil Rockerfeller at 5/5. Sporting a first-time tongue strap, Bukela attracted strong support in the market, starting the 7/2 second favourite having been available at 10/1 in the morning. Held up towards the rear off an even gallop, he gave plenty of air over the first three flights but was tidier over the next three. Making headway along the back, he was at the quarters of the leaders and yet to be asked any serious question coming down at the penultimate flight; again, jumping big and clipping the flight with his forelegs before stumbling on landing and taking a clattering fall. Bukela did appear to be travelling in accordance with the market confidence but there was still plenty of the race to be run and with the winner disappointing next time, anything other than travelling strongly would have been a negative in what looks a poor race from a form perspective. Moreover, there would also be a concern that the fall might have left a psychological mark as those who fell on their hurdling debut have a 6.83% strike-rate second-time-out (compared to 9.33% for all other second time out runners). Hurdling experience is typically a positive and the market confidence at Hexham would not be dismissed at this stage. However, his flat form is not the strongest in this line-up and there are currently questions to answer.

Fast Forward bg Alan King f10-2-2 (58) 64
Recorder (One Cool Cat){14-c}(0.80) 2/1 Early Doors 153 1st Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (145), Cheltenham 2019
Trainer Alan King’s record in the juvenile hurdling division is intimidating at all levels. As well as winning Grade Ones with the likes of Katchit, Franchoek, Walkon, Grumeti, and l’Unique, (the first two named introduced at Market Rasen) he also boasts a winner to runner rate of 47.84%, an improvement rate of 50.91%, and of those trained at Barbury Castle during their flat careers, 51.72% would win during their initial campaigns over jumps. Alan King is also adept at readying them first time out as per their 26.14% strike-rate. Even with those rated less than 62 on the flat, three of the eighteen won first-time at a rate of 16.67% (3.37% across all yards). This factor is pertinent to Fast Forward who, after fetching 30,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Guineas Sale as a two-year-old, ended a ten-race spell on the flat with a BHA mark of 58. Starting his career at Sandown last July, Fast Forward finished no better than midfield on his first five outings, but the application of cheekpieces coincided with his reaching the frame in a mile nursery at Newcastle in late November off 46. Following a lacklustre return from a winter break at Southwell in mid-March, Fast Forward broke his duck at Windsor at the beginning of May in a Windsor handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Weak in the market, sent off at 20/1 having started the day at half that price, Fast Forward settled behind the leaders before being asked for his effort turning into the straight. From there, he was engaged in a protracted battle for the lead in which he ultimately prevailed by a head; the front pair finishing five lengths clear of the remainder. He failed to follow up when next seen towards the end of May in a similar contest at Yarmouth. Ridden more conservatively, he met with an unclear passage at the distance before finishing strongly inside the final furlong; denied a half-length by a subsequent winner. Nevertheless, Fast Forward regained the winning thread when returning to Yarmouth last week, his mark of 55 giving him top-weight. Ridden more prominently in a steadily run contest, he was travelling much the best as the race developed and after hitting the front at the distance, was always doing enough to win by a neck and a head with the fourth a further three lengths behind. There is still room to maneuver in his rating of 58 so it is interesting that connections have opted to switch to hurdling rather than take advantage of his seemingly generous mark. Notwithstanding, there are grounds in his pedigree for doing so as his uncle, Early Doors, won on his hurdling debut as a four-year-old after a brief but fruitful bumper career before going on to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle and the Galway Plate over the next two years. His auntie Yauthym placed in the listed juvenile hurdle at Doncaster, other useful winners, Smaoineamh Alainn and Conclave were produced by the third dam while Scolardy (5/3) and The Young Master (5/6) appear further back. Recorder is one of three first-season jumps stallions represented here and although he retired after winning the Acomb Stakes, his prospects for the sphere are not negligible. As per Bukala’s profile, sons of Galileo can produce juvenile hurdlers and though a little on the short side at 16.0hh, was bred to be a stayer with his being a full-brother to a couple of useful sorts with wins over the Leger trip and beyond (one being Call To Mind), and DI of 0.77. Fast Forward has a progressive profile with his best flat form bettered by only one rival and as he is the only runner to have been ridden prominently with success, he could be the pace angle in a contest won by his strong and in-form trainer with another newcomer, Red Mercury, in 2011.

Ha Long Bay chg Adrian Paul Keatley f9-2-0 (70) 74
Mastercraftsman (Bushranger){8}(3.00) 3/1 Arch Rebel 145 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2004
Following a nine race spell on the flat, Ha Long Bay comes into this contest with a mark of 70, which gives him the best part of a stone in hand over his rivals. First seeing the racecourse at Beverley last September, Ha Long Bay ran largely with credit on five occasions in novices and nurserys without reaching the frame. Following his winter break, he returned in a seven furlong handicap at Catterick where, racing off 61, was the subject of a plunge; starting the 11/4 favourite having opened at 8/1 in the morning. Caught for toe in the early stages and seemingly making heavy weather of things at the distance with more than half the field still ahead of him, Ha Long Bay was able to finish strongly once the penny dropped, passing five rivals inside the final furlong to win in the final strides by a neck. Reappearing under a penalty at Redcar eight days later over an extra furlong, Ha Long Bay justified favouritism to land a brace. Settled in midfield but making steadier headway, he was battling for the lead at the furlong marker before winning by a neck from a previous winner. The revised mark of 72 put an end to his winning streak but he still ran with credit when a one-paced fourth in a Class 3 at York, before struggling to make an impression at Beverley last time when stepped up to twelve furlongs. Subsequently dropped to 70, the impression is that Ha Long Bay has reached his ceiling on the flat. However, a switch in codes is not an unreasonable move based on his breeding. Mastercraftsman is firmly established as one of the stronger stallions in the division with only Galileo and Montjeu producing more winning juveniles since 2004/05. While the distaff side is primarily based in the States, talented juvenile Arch Rebel is out of the third dam while useful US jumps winners Call Me Sonny and Old Timer appear at 4/2 and 5/3 on the damline. Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley has had a winning juvenile, but that came when Champagne Terri (trained by Keatley on the flat and of a similar ability to Ha Long Bay) scored at the third time of asking; making his overall record one win from thirty-two starts. That Keatley has also gone the best part of a month without a winner with his last ten runners failing to reach the frame, the enthusiasm created by Ha Long Bay’s pedigree and flat superiority is tempered.

Mucuna bf Milton Harris f8-1-0 (49) 55 j1-1-0 (-) 86 94
Guiliani (Gold Away){14-b}(0.89) 2/1 Capellini 98 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (93), Plumpton 2013
Prior to his forced sabbatical, Milton Harris was no slouch when it came to juvenile hurdlers; saddling Modul to win the Grade 2 Summit and Finesse Hurdles in 2003/04 and subsequently guiding Gulf Punch (rated 45 and claimed for £5000), Pseudonym (also claimed for £5000), Rosie’s Glory (rated 60) and Moonfleet (rated 57) to the winners’ enclosure. Nevertheless, since his glorious return to the shores of Hoofiana, Harris has proven himself in no uncertain terms with an excellent winner to runner record of ten from twenty capped by last season’s hugely admirable Knight Salute. He has started the current season as he ended the last by winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree with the 49 rated Mucuna. Her first five outings, commencing last October, came on the all-weather; starting at triple digit prices on each occasion with her best effort coming with a midfield finish in a mile Handicap at Kempton off 46. However, the switch to turf and a step up to ten furlongs saw her get off the mark at Salisbury back in April. Held up in midfield and racing widest of all, she was asked for her effort half a mile from home. It took a while for her to move through the gears, but she did run on strongest of all; taking it up in the final hundred yards and winning by three quarters of a length. The field finished in a heap but while the form amounts to little, Mucuna was clearly the best on the day. She was unable to follow up in a couple of Bath handicaps off 50 during May, finishing fourth on both occasions, but it was apparent that the track did not see her to best effect. The switch to hurdling came last week at Aintree and while she was backed from 20/1 into 4/1 second favourite, this was not a clandestine move as there was plenty of evidence for a good showing in a weak race. Although her rating is a low one, Milton Harris, since his return, has trained Romeo’s Bond (55) to win, and Global Agreement (56) to place first time. Mucuna’s pedigree was also feasibly conducive as Guiliani (another first-season sire) is a nephew of Getaway and the damline contains winners Capellini (2/1), listed class handicapper Beringneyev (3/1), Mahogany Blaze (4/3) and Petit Mouchoir (5/5). Held up last of four, in a race ran at a galop comparable to the handicap on the card, Mucuna was novicey over the first three flights as she was steady and awkward over one and two and jumped left while leaving her hind legs in the third. Nevertheless, she was more fluent thereafter and though behind her two remaining rivals when turning for home, was close up and ultimately the last to come off the bridle. Despite being squeezed out at the final flight, she took the lead in a matter of strides and with the rail to help, ran out a decisive and enthusiastic three-length winner. All told, she did not have to improve on her flat form to land the spoils and she is in deeper waters here if her opponents run to scratch. Notwithstanding, her willingness and proven hurdling ability still count for something and with the yard in decent form, Mucuna should put up a respectable showing.

Shipton Moyne bf Richard J Bandey f5-0-0 (45) 51
Coach House (Kyllachy){4-n}(3.00) 2/2 Mongolia 58.0/111 1st 3800m 4yo Fillies’ Conditions Hurdle. Angers 2020
Finishing a ten length sixth on her racecourse bow at Kempton in December, Shipton Moyne has been unable to match that effort in four subsequent outings. Having ran over seven furlongs and a mile prior to a break, she was last seen at Windsor in early May over an extended eleven furlongs where she finished weakly some twelve lengths behind Fast Forward. Sire Coach House has had a winner from three juveniles, and cousin Mongolia won in the French provinces at four. However, the remainder of the damline (which includes Treve and Triptych) is weak as far as jumpers are concerned, Kyllachy is an underwhelming influence in the sphere and is zero from one with his juveniles.

tl:dr
Bukela – Modest maiden on flat but not without ability and trainer is capable in sphere. Well backed when falling two-out at Hexham. Too early to confidently ascertain where he might have finished but potential effect on his psyche adds to ponderous profile

Fast Forward – Progressive on flat, showing good attitude when winning two of last three starts at low level. With outstanding trainer, has interesting pedigree and could be suited by pace composition.

Ha Long Bay – Highest rated on flat by best part of a stone and is bred for the game. Switch to hurdling may be due to lack of options on flat and trainer not well established in field.

Mucuna – Winning handicapper on flat at low grade. Trainer is highly skilled with juveniles and suitable pedigree saw her make a winning hurdles bow at Aintree. Form probably amounts to little but experience should have her in good stead.

Shipton Moyne – Very little on flat and trainer not proven in discipline. Hints of promise in patchy pedigree but still plenty to find.

Strong prospects
1. Fast Forward
Reasonable prospects
2. Mucuna
3. Ha Long Bay
Feasible prospects
4. Bukela
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
5. Shipton Moyne