A-League Predictions > May 28th

[dejann]

Melbourne City -3/4 @1.96 & o2.75 @2.02

Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.90 or -1 @2.21; o2.75 @1.97

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: cm Aiden O'Neill still out for MC, he's been out since early Apr; cb Topor-Stanley and cm Krhin out for WU (oldie am Diamanti also out, but he's been out since mid-Feb)

Note: AUS A-league Grand Final, played in Melbourne. Just 4 points between the two at the end of the regular season, however quality difference is higher and this price, that may look way too low as it's one leg final, should actually be lower. Melbourne City are by far the best AUS team, but they did slow down a bit after exhausting ACL tournament in Thailand (6 games from 15th to 30th Apr at +30/35c avg) and also had to play several league games without their internationals (4 AUS intls in the squad) during the season, which resulted in some below par performances and results. Still, they have won the Premier's Plate (finished 1st in reg season), with their +22 goal diff also best in the league, and they finished with best shots diff and corner kicks diff, 2nd best sh tgt diff. Western United had all those diffs negative despite finishing 3rd and they have truly ridden their luck at times this season, especially in terms of conceded goals, as either their goalie Young played a hero or there was wasteful finishing from the opponent, and their 30 conceded goals, which is 2nd lowest in the league, is simply misleading number. However, Western Utd are good at creating and finishing chances, there is interesting offensive talent, and in cf Prijovic they have one of the in-form strikers in the league. Melbourne City have won none of 3 reg season games against WU, and that is another reason for the underdog to be optimistic ahead of this clash - however, in 1-0 loss at Western Utd in Jan, MC played with very weakened lineup, without their internationals; while in other two games, 0-1 defeat in Dec and 2-2 draw in Mar, MC dominated throughout and actually deserved to win both games, but in 0-1 loss it was WU's gk Young that had a spectacular game, while in 2-2 draw MC's backup gk Sutton was not very good (to put it mildly), though even with that in mind MC could've and should've won but they were very wasteful with chances. Just in those two hth's, MC have outshot WU 43-15, on target 13-5, shots inside the box 27-9, hit post/bar 2-0, xG 4.0-1.3.No team problems for MC tomorrow, all big guns are in, they will unleash their best poss side and if they perform at standard level, WU will probably need some luck and gk heroics again, to survive. WU will set-up defensively, they don't like to have much of the ball anyway (finished with 2nd lowest ball poss% in A league) and prefer direct style with counter attacks, but with their quality up-front they should be expected to score here, and we like both hcap and TG for this one, with small pref for hcap. Melbourne City about 61% to win in reg time, with TG 3.05+, ok weather conditions.