Switzerland Super League 2021-2022

[dejann]

Luzern dnb @1.95

Min price to bet: dnb @1.83 or -1/4 @2.18

Model +value: yes

Significant team news: first choice lb Cipriano suspended, cf Wesley injured for Sion; key cm Ugrinic suspended for Luzern, he is their (by far) best rated player this season, assist leader and top scorer

Note: Very important game, 4 points between the two with 3 rounds to go; with a win Sion could clinch a survival, Luzern increase their chances to avoid relegation playoff game; with Grashoppers just 3 pts away. The visitors are better team but had lots of problems this season, they are in better form now though, 3-2-1 in last 6 in the league, with 2 straight wins, the only defeat was against Basel, in game that was played 3 days after their exhausting and emotional Swiss Cup semifinal defeat to Lugano (extra time, then penalty shootout). During this good recent run, Luzern have posted some very good stats as well, in last 5 games they are the best in the league in shots diff at +10.2 and shots on target diff at +3.8; both these cats are positive for them after 33 games (only YB, St Gallen and Basel have both these also positive). Sion are pretty much where they deserve to be, if anything they were a bit fortunate so far and we believe they should be +1/4 dogs here. They perhaps have more points, but they have scored less, both from open play and set pieces, conceded more goals, created much lower number of big chances, fired far less shots on tgt. Weather will be ok, Luzern at 43-43.5% for us, though only 1 win in 16 road games this season is certainly not encouraging.